Howard is building the Labour vote

[Anarcho-Socialist]

The Tory appeal to the electorate, based on fear and greed, is failing

Roy Hattersley
Monday April 18, 2005
The Guardian

Liam Fox, the Tory party chairman, always exudes self-satisfaction. What else could be expected from a man once described by a Glasgow newspaper as "the fourth most eligible bachelor in Scotland". But on Question Time last Thursday, he looked and sounded even more smug than usual. It is easy to understand why. In the preceding week, he had received letters from dozens of diehard supporters congratulating him on the success of the Conservative campaign.

(snip)

Conservatives are excited about the way their campaign is being fought. Civilised Tories use terms like "hard hitting". The feral variety talk about "wiping the smile off Tony Blair's face". All of them welcome what they see as a war of aggression. Having been humiliated in two successive general elections, they rejoice at being led by a man whose debating technique relies on poking his finger in his opponent's eye. Nobody seems to have told him that the floating voters - who win and lose elections - do not like that sort of thing. Nobody, that is, except erstwhile Tory chairperson Theresa May - who, otherwise, is only notable for her bizarre footwear. To do Ms May justice, she told the Conservatives that they were regarded as "the nasty party". Clearly, her colleagues took no notice of the warning. Electing Michael Howard as leader confirmed that reputation. Yesterday's opinion polls demonstrated that unremitting nastiness is doing the Tories enormous damage.

Floating voters in this election bob about in an unusual way. There is a natural Labour majority in the country. But a proportion of that plurality has been offended by the prime minister's policy. Thanks to the Tory campaign, men and women who months ago were reluctant to vote for Tony Blair are now determined to vote against Michael Howard. They could vote for Charles Kennedy. In the seats that count, most instinctive Labour supporters are too sensible to waste their time. The woolly-headed "give Blair a bloody nose" brigade shrinks daily. During a Labour meeting in Lincolnshire last week, a man announced that "Iraq and casinos" had made him question the allegiance of 30 years. The woman who spoke next received prolonged applause for reminding him that "it's a general election, not a referendum. We have to decide which government we want".

Whoever is running Labour's campaign has made the right decisions - a collective leadership under the intellectual influence of Gordon Brown, with the consequent emphasis on economic success and fair shares in the prosperity that follows. There will be questions to be asked after polling day - particularly one that Gordon Brown raised himself at a party conference. Where should the boundary between private enterprise and public provision be drawn? But that can wait. This campaign is bringing out the best in Labour and exposing the worst in the Conservatives.

More at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1462185,00.html

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Hattersley makes some good points. The Tories race-baiting nastiness could turn many ethnic minority voters to reluctantly vote Labour. However, I think time will tell on this, because race-baiting is a tried and tested campaign tool and is used - because it works.

[LSdemocrat]

1. Thankfully unlike in the US and Austrailia . . .

Going for the lowest common denominator doesn't seem to work as well in Britain.

I really hope the Conservative Party in its post-Thatcher incarnation finally dies and either reemerges as a more sensible party or fades into the dustbin of history.

[non sociopath skin]

2. If the Tories lose bigtime ...

... as mercifully now looks possible, this election might prove to be a positive turning point for both them and Labour and see something like normal politics restored.

The Skin

[ikri]

3. The Tories don't seem to be fighting Labour

The Tories had a superb chance in this election to pick up a huge swathe of ethnic minority voters who opposed Labour's stance in the Iraq war and with the right policies they could have cut Labour's majority considerably.

Instead the Tories seem to prefer vying with UKIP & Veritas for their support, which generally means calling for anyone with skin tones darker than a slight tan to be kicked out of the country.

But that's the Tories for you. Don't use your most approachable politicians (Port-a-loo, Ken Clarke) in leadership, instead use the ones who are reviled even by members of your own party and shape your policies to attract right-wing voters instead of policies aimed at the middle-of-the-road voters who have had enough of Blair.

When the Tories lose I fully expect them to believe that they need to move even further to the right to gain voters alienating even more of their traditional supporters.

[non sociopath skin]

5. The right-wing blogs and, to some extent, the right-wing press ...

... really, really believed that Immigration was THE big vote-winner.

I don't think even the Tories would be arrogant enough not to get the message if they bomb out.

The Skin

[Anarcho-Socialist]

6. It reminds of the 2001 election...

...when both William Hague and the Tory press thought that Europe was going to be the big vote-winner that time.

I think for the Tories to return to power, one of the following must happen:
1. Labour Party splits/implodes, and the centre-left vote is split with it
2. The Tories reposition themselves as a libertarian (small 'c' conservative) party
3. The economy goes into recession and Labour is seen as not responding properly
4. Labour launches the crappest campaign ever

It's going to be difficult for them to win, when the main election issues are the economy, NHS and education and Labour are more trusted than they are with those portfolios. Not that I'd ever complain to see the Tories lose. :)

[T_i_B]

4. A fellow Wednesdayite scores a goal!

Indeed the only reason to vote Labour that ever seems to be provided these days is the Conservative Party.

Floating voters in this election bob about in an unusual way. There is a natural Labour majority in the country. But a proportion of that plurality has been offended by the prime minister's policy. Thanks to the Tory campaign, men and women who months ago were reluctant to vote for Tony Blair are now determined to vote against Michael Howard.