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For a Pax Europeana
Can we fold the remains of the Ottoman empire into a new European empire?
Timothy Garton Ash Thursday April 14, 2005 The Guardian
How many years does it take to dismantle an empire? And how many wars? In the case of the Ottoman empire, the answer would seem to be about 400 years and at least 20 wars, including the world war that began in Sarajevo. And we may not have seen the last of them. According to a recent survey, three out of every four Macedonians expect a new military conflict in their country. So who's for another little Balkan war?
It is remarkable how many of the most pressing problems for today's Europe can be traced back to the tangled web of ethnicities, polities and religions that the Ottomans left behind. Superimpose a map of today's flashpoints on the outline of the 16th-century empire of Suleiman the Magnificent: it's a pretty good fit. His realm embraced what we now call the Balkans - a term that has become a synonym for war and ethnic conflict - but also today's Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Israel. It ran down the edge of the Red Sea to Yemen, and along the coast of north Africa, from Egypt to Algeria. For the problems resulting from Israel's presence in the Near East we have only ourselves and Adolf Hitler to blame, but for the rest: thanks, Suleiman. Now a new independent commission, chaired by the former Italian prime minister Giuliano Amato, has come up with an answer for at least part of Suleiman's legacy. Noting that violence broke out between Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo only last spring, and that unemployment there runs at more than 60%, they insist that the present political limbo in the Balkans is unsustainable. We can't carry on with this patchwork of weak states and EU protectorates, with quasi-imperial viceroys like Paddy Ashdown in Bosnia and unresolved status issues, such as those around Kosovo.
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This is heady stuff. The European parliament yesterday gave the green light for Bulgaria and Romania to join the EU in 2007. With Croatia, Turkey and the rest of the Balkans, this would mean that in just 10 years' time the European Union would contain some 35 member states and perhaps 600 million people, of whom nearly one in six would be Muslim. And that's not counting east European aspirants, such as Ukraine after its orange revolution, and Belarus and Moldova after what we must hope will be their (yet to be colour-coded) velvet revolutions. Nor does it include any of the successor states of the Ottoman empire in the Near East or north Africa, although Morocco has in the past asked if it could apply. For them, the EU will have to develop a neighbourhood policy which does not depend on the promise of eventual membership.
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