Lorne Gunter: The NDP surge will give Harper his majority

[shockedcanadian]

Article is here:
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/27/lorne-gunter-the-ndp-surge-will-give-harper-his-majority/


Appears some view Laytons gains at the expense of the Liberals and little to no seat pick ups in Conservative ridings. This theory makes sense as most Conservatives are so far from the left that voting NDP is unthinkable, but, many historically Liberal voters could vote NDP.

We will most likely see a Conservative majority with the future of Canada being decided by two main parties (as exists in the U.S) with a split of seats with the Bloc in Quebec for the foreseeable future. Obviously if the NDP wins the election it would be a monumental shift in Canada, I think this possibility is a stretch and instead, the vote and seat splitting on the left will occur.

[mahigan]

1. Check the source

This appeared in the right wing National Joke paper. What else would you expect? Maybe an opinion piece by the ghost of Tommy Douglas?

And there is no vote splitting on "the left" unless you mistakenly assume that everyone left of the most right wing Canadian government in the last 50 years is "the left". The Liberals haven't been left of centre in decades nor have the Greens ever been.

For someone who admits to not voting you seem to do a lot of concern trolling.

[shockedcanadian]

2. I don't vote, this does not mean I dont read the news...

I usually do not respond to attacks especially since I am on a Democracy site (you know, where all opinions and ideas are generally welcome as long as I don't attack another). This source is no different than reading the Star or any other paper with a different slant. What is particularly offensive is you calling me a name when you have all of 10 posts (including the one you used to attack me). I would never stoop that low, and I respect all posters opinions if well thought out and presented, even if I disagree at least I know this is an environment where all opinions are respected.

I have been on this site over a year and I silently read posts long before then. To those who know of my circumstances, it transcends politics and quite frankly long ago I suggested on here that to me Layton appeared to be the most trustworthy leader, long before an election was called. As it is, no party is going to open up the Security's Information Act (formerly the Official Secrets Act) and hold CSIS and the RCMP Accountable (although the NDP would certainly be the most interested party to focus on this blight on Canadian Rights and Freedoms), therefore, there is no interest in me voting for any particular party at this time. This does not mean I do not read the news, nor follow with interest how the tides are swaying. Nor refrain from educating myself on the activities that are occurring in Canada from all writers and sources.

I call it as I see it. No political agenda. No bias one way or another. Although I could pick through many policies from each party and tell you which I agree with and don't. It seems obvious, after months of a large number of scandals committed by the Conservative government (some of them overblown, others inadequately addressed by Harper in my opinion) there is nary a peep of movement in their popularity. How can this be explained? We are talking about some major scandals that Harper simply avoids, brushes off and move on from. For better or for worse, this is the party which will win the election and quite possibly a majority. His leadership has been lacking in my opinion, but he is a master of political tactic and I am amazed how effectively it has worked.

The best strategy to form a new government in power would require "strategic voting", and I don't think most voters are sophisticated, nor concerned enough to focus on such a tactic. Remember, many people are supporters of their party of choice (often blindly) regardless of the current platform. I liken it to following a sports team regardless of the players, management or ownership. If there was 100% voter turnout, there would probably be a different outcome, but we all know this isn't possible. Therefore, the NDP obtaining more support, in my opinion, although refreshing and maybe even desired (based on all of the scandals of both the Libs and the Cons over the last three decades), will in the overall scheme of things lead to a Conservative majority. If anyone suggests otherwise why this wouldn't occur I am all ears.

I peruse and read all sources of news, and I come to conclusions based on the information taken as a whole. Since I am not married to any one party I find it easier to conduct a more objective view of what is going on. In fact, even Harper is now targeting the NDP, I am sure that secretly he does not mind seeing votes go there as it will weaken the power base of the Liberals, the only other governing party in the history of Canada.

Here is a source from the Star that states the manner in which Harper frames the issue:

Harper’s take on NDP surge in polls: It’s us or them

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/981235--harper-s-take-on-ndp-surge-in-polls-it-s-us-or-them?bn=1

So you can offer your opinion, I certainly wouldn't accuse you of anything unless you specifically stated your discourse. You might want to understand a little bit more about my discourse, I have posted it clearly on this site, since you took the time to read that I don't vote.

[Ken Burch]

4. Why DON'T you vote, by the way?

It's a bit weird for you to participate in a political web forum and not take what amounts to the most minimal actual role in politics.

[arikara]

5. Strategic voting in the last election

gave us another Harper minority. In our riding, the incumbent Liberal candidate won by 40 votes and many including my friends, family and myself who normally would have voted NDP held our noses and voted for the liberal because he had the best chance of winning over the conservative. People in other ridings did the same thing to keep out a Harper majority. I don't know where you get that we aren't sophisticated enough to figure that out.

This time around it looks like people are not eager for more of the same old. I think this is one reason why the NDP are doing so well. They are offering the people what they want and that does not include scare tactics, fighter jets and jails. The Mr and I voted in the advance polls for the NDP this time and it looks like a good move, we have hope for some real change for this country.

[Ken Burch]

3. That's wishful from the most right-wing rag in Canada.

A new poll conducted by Simon Fraser University and Forum polls has the Tories down to a THREE point lead...34% to 31%. The Tories can't possibly get a majority with that vote share, especially since the NDP has a stronger base in Western Canada and Quebec than the Liberals now do.

The only way to stop the Tories is for Liberal Party voters to back the NDP. If they were for "strategic voting" when they assumed it would be NDP voters backing Liberal candidates, the Liberals have an obligation to do it themselves now that the Orange has surpassed the Red.