Is the LA Times poll for WI an abberration? has there been a recent swing?

[0rganism]

Looks like Kerry lost 6-8 points in the 8/24 poll. Has the W campaign been hitting WI real hard, that you could see?

[Kierkegaard]

1. It's an outlier

All the people I know still hate * as much as they did last week ;) I have doubts about the accuracy of that poll.

[shockingelk]

2. margin of error ...

Where did you get that Kerry lost 6-8 points? You can't compare a LA Times poll to Zogby's poll if that's what you're doing - remember that different pollsters use different was of determining "likely voters". You have to compare it to the last LA Times poll. Between those two, Bush gained 1 point and Kerry gained two. Both those changes are within the MoE.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/wi_polls.html

I think WI is in the clear as you don't have to register to vote, if I remember correctly - people will be showing up in droves to vote Bush out of the WH.

[0rganism]

4. True enough, but there could have been a visible event or cause, too

I have no doubt that most polls differ in their sampling and weighting methodology. However, I was under the impression that WI was a fairly safe bet for Kerry, and the swing was sort of curious.

WI is a must-win for Kerry, IMHO.

How does one vote in WI, without registering? Is the driver's license considered adequate?

[shockingelk]

5. You can register at the polls on election day

"Wisconsin: 13 days before an election; or completed in the local voter registration office 1 day before an election; or completed at the polling place on election day."

http://www.fec.gov/pages/faqs.htm

Here in MN, you need a photo ID and a letter addressed to you at the same address postmarked within one month.

WI is close, Bush Kerry is ahead in most WI polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/wi_polls.html

As for the change, it has to be outside of the margin of error, which in this care is 3. So when the result says "Kerry 44, Bush 45" it means "Kerry is in the range of 41 to 47 and Bush is in the range of 48 to 48".

And statistically speaking, you also have to consider the confidence level which in this case would be about 95% - which means if you did the same poll over again and again, the results would be outside the margin of error 5% of the time.

For those reasons, polls such as these are only useful when the results are clearly outside the margin of error. When they're within the margin of error, they're still useful in identifying trends. So if LA times does a few more polls which show Bush at that level or higher, you could confidently say Bush is gaining.

[ClassWarrior]

7. Plus, you can vote early any (business?) day between now...

...and September 13th (the day before the primary) at your City Hall. I think the hours are 8am-4:30pm. I'm sure the same arrangement is in effect for the general election on 11/04. Call first for details.

(This is great for folks who are helping others GOTV on election day, who are poll-watching, or who are otherwise occupied.)

[Lizzie Borden]

I think it's an abberation

but I live in Madison (extremely liberal) and sometimes it's hard to tell. I hate to think about it but Tommy Thompson was our governor for 12 years so I guess anything could happen.

[Lizzie Borden]

3. I think it's an abberation

but I live in Madison (extremely liberal) and sometimes it's hard to tell. I hate to think about it but Tommy Thompson was our governor for 12 years so I guess anything could happen.

[sherrem]

6. I live

in St. Croix County. I've seen 2 Kerry/Edwards signs. I think Kerry needs to take a trip to this area of state--though I did travel and hour and half to see him in Bloomer.