Map points to smaller GOP majority in Texas House

[sonias]

Thought I would start a separate thread on the issue that MelissaG posted yesterday about the redistricting maps being out.

First Reading blog AAS 11/18/11
Map points to smaller GOP majority in Texas House

(snip)
The story of the last 24 hours in our fine state is redistricting — the maps that judges proposed to use in 2012 state House and Senate races.

The House map is, on the whole, better for Democrats than the one approved by legislators earlier this year. One Capitol source who knows this stuff told me that it creates 89 seats that Republican John McCain would have carried in the 2008 presidential election, while the map passed by the Legislature earlier this year created 97.

Republicans now hold 101 seats. One GOP source said the party could get to 92 under this map, but it would take some narrow wins. Another said it would reach 88 in a good GOP election cycle.

Remember when we thought 88 seats was a big majority? Remember that the House was split 76-74 just 13 months ago.

We have nowhere to go but up! Thank you DOJ challenging this repulsive power grab by the Texas GOP. We should do much better in a Presidential election year to start recovering from that horrible tsunami of 2010.

:kick:

[sonias]

1. Texas Republican overreach slapped down hard by feds

Re-posting from the voter ID thread to this one.

Very good write up at Brains and Eggs by PDittie this morning

Brains and Eggs blog 11/18/11
Texas Republican overreach slapped down hard by feds

The maps drawn for the 2012 elections by the three-judge panel are a huge win, and in some cases are eye-popping.

Democrats could gain a half-dozen seats in the Texas House under an interim redistricting map a federal court released Thursday. <...>

The biggest changes in the proposed Texas House map, which was endorsed by two of the three judges meeting in San Antonio, appear to be focused in the Houston area and could cost the Republicans as many as three seats. Rep. Beverly Woolley's district was largely combined into Rep. Jim Murphy's, Rep. Ken Legler's reconfigured district is heavily Hispanic and Rep. Sarah Davis' new district was won in 2008 by President Barack Obama.

Senator Wendy Davis looks like she will keep her seat. :thumbsup:

I also saw on another blog that traitor Aaron Pena's goose is cooked. He doesn't stand a chance in hell of being re-elected! :woohoo:

[white cloud]

2. great to hear and thanks in part to Wendys work

Senator Wendy Davis looks like she will keep her seat.

[sonias]

3. She was a big part of this decision

She helped file the lawsuit because of the damage the republican maps did to her constituents - depriving them of electing whomever they want to represent them.

So kudos to Senator Davis! :toast:

[PDittie]

4. Thanks for the shout-out

Sonia!:toast:

[sonias]

5. Hell you did the hard work collecting the data

A big shout out to you, sir! :toast:

[white cloud]

6. Thanks PDittie

K&R

[sonias]

7. More on redistricting: just 1 R left in South Texas?

And it ain't Arron Pena either!

Paul Burka @ Texas Monthly 11/21/11

More on redistricting: just 1 R left in South Texas?

That’s the gist of an e-mail I received from a Republican friend who analyzed the revised House maps. My correspondent believes that the Court sought to eliminate most Republican districts in South Texas, and when the dust clears, only one Republican rep will remain.

Start with Aaron Pena. My correspondent writes, “A Republican simply cannot win this seat. I like the guy, but, sorry.”

Next: the Todd Hunter-Geanie Morrison pairing. Advantage Hunter. There are more voters in Morrison’s part of the district (Victoria County), but the turnout is typically higher in Nueces County, which gives Hunter the edge. Plus, Hunter has more cash on hand than Morrison does.

The Connie Scott-Raoul Torres pairing in Nueces County eliminates another Republican seat. Scott would be favored to defeat Torres in the Republican primary, but the district could revert to its former Democratic representative, Solomon Ortiz Jr. This district is a tossup.

That's what the a-holes get for overreaching and stomping on Latino rights in the process.
:popcorn:

[sonias]

8. Backgrounder: Getting a stay at the Supreme Court (SCOTUS)

Texas Redistricting blog 11/22/11

Backgrounder: Getting a stay at the Supreme Court

Texas House Speaker Joe Straus and State Representative Burt Solomons said on Monday they would ask Attorney General Greg Abbott to seek a stay in the U.S. Supreme Court if the court-drawn interim maps are not changed to adhere more closely to the maps passed by the Legislature.

So how easy would that be?

The answer: It’s a pretty darn high hurdle.

For starters, if the state decided to seek a stay, it would first need to ask the three-judge panel for a stay. This is because Supreme Court Rule 23 says that, “xcept in the most extraordinary circumstances, an application for stay will not be entertained unless the relief requested was first sought in the appropriate court or courts below or from a judge or judges thereof.”

If the panel denied relief (which it probably would since it will have written the order being appealed), the state then could file an application with justice responsible for the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit- in this case, Justice Antonin Scalia.

Even that scumbag Scalia would have a hard time pulling this one out of the fire for the Texas repukes.

:rofl:

[Melissa G]

9. Thanks for this analysis, sonias

I was wondering if they had any chance with this move or were just grasping at straws. :toast:

[sonias]

10. It's always good to have legal minds explain it to us

I had no idea that this was a high hurdle. I figured that the Rs control SCOTUS and that like a Gore v Bush that court would give them a political win, I wasn't sure.

Now they still win the media war, which may have been their goal all along. The tell their base voters they're taking it all the way to the Supreme Court knowing full well they don't stand a very good chance. But it counts with their base since they seem to be taking some action.

:hi: