Perry Leads Whtie by 9 in New UT/TT Poll

[sonias]

Texas Tribune 5/24/10
Perry Up by 9 in New UT/TT Poll
(snip)
Those numbers are identical to the results of a "fantasy race" between White and Perry in the February UT/TT poll, which was taken before Democratic and Republican primary voters selected the two men as their nominees. This time, 15 percent said they don't know yet who they'll vote for, and 7 percent said they'd prefer "someone else." That last finding could be consequential: Libertarians will choose their candidate for governor at a state convention next month, and that candidate or a write-in or some combination of the two could give those "someone else" voters a place to go.

Perry's stronger with Anglo voters, leading White 55 percent to 25 percent. White is stronger with African American voters (69 to 5) and with Hispanics (43 to 32). Perry is ahead among both men (48 to 34) and women (40 to 35).

Nobody panic yet. There are still 15% undecided and and things we've read about recently, probably did not impact this poll - Perry's "living large" rental for example.

No doubt that Bill White needs to grab onto these issues and go on the attack. He's not going to win by playing nice with Perry.

[sonias]

1. Average of 11 Public Polls in 2010 Show Rick Perry at 47%, Bill White at 40%

Burnt Orange Report 5/24/10
Texas Governor's Race: Average of 11 Public Polls in 2010 Show Rick Perry at 47%, Bill White at 40%
The Texas Tribune has released their latest poll, which shows Rick Perry at 44%, Bill White at 35%. Two key points to highlight from the poll:

* Rick Perry, a ten-year incumbent, remains under 50% in the Tribune poll. That means that the only head-to-head polls to show Perry above 50% this entire election cycle are from Rasmussen, and Nate Silver has shown pretty well how their "house effect" can change polls -- and further analysis shows that Rasmussen polls early to set the narrative, then leaves come Election Day.

* The Tribune poll shows that White's margin among Hispanics is only 43-32%. Anyone who believes that number is simply off-base. Translation: Bill White has enormous room to grow.

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