Medina could create problems for Perry, Hutchison

[sonias]

AAS 1/20/2010
Medina could create problems for Perry, Hutchison
Democrats love the idea of a long shot inducing a run-off between top two candidates.

Debra Medina, the gadfly gubernatorial candidate to her well-established Republican primary opponents, has been causing headaches lately for Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison all while Democrats quietly cheer her on.

(snip)
A new Rasmussen Poll indicated that Medina is picking up momentum, while Perry and Hutchison have lost support.

Belo Corp., which is sponsoring the debate, decided to include Medina after she broke double-digits in the latest poll and after being deluged with complaints from Medina supporters.

Jerry Polinard, a political science professor at the University of Texas-Pan American, said that Medina cannot win in March, but he said her candidacy will be significant.

"She's more of a spoiler than she was a week ago," Polinard said

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

Perfect storm. I can't wait to see the outcome of the R gubernatorial primary.

Hell I'm not being quite about it - Go Debra - spoil it, please spoil it!!!

Sonia

[sonias]

1. BOR thread with the Rasmussen poll

BOR Diary 1/18/10
TX-Gov: New GOP Primary Poll Shows Medina Momentum; Runoff Likely

A new poll by Rasmussen in conjunction with Fox Television stations shows Debra Medina now polling in the double digits while Rick Perry continues to lead Kay Bailey Hutchison by a 10 point margin. Numbers in parenthesis indicate the prior Rasmussen poll conducted in November 2009.

Poll of 831 Likely Republican Voters

43% (46) Rick Perry
33% (35) Kay Bailey Hutchison
12% (4) Debra Medina
11% (14) Undecided

Sonia

[sonias]

2. What Does Debra Want?

Texas Tribune 1/20/10
What Does Debra Want?
For a few hours after the January 14 Republican gubernatorial debate, novice candidate Debra Medina became one of the country’s hottest searches on Google; the trend chart measuring the popularity of her name shows a line zooming upward at a near vertical. In the 72 hours following that statewide television appearance, she collected $65,000 in unsolicited campaign contributions — more than a quarter of her total fundraising since she started running for governor last February. "To have the response that we did, with rank-and-file Texans, has given me a real shot in the arm," says Medina, the former Wharton County GOP chairwoman.

(snip)
That’s spoiler territory, but her own electoral viability is still dubious. She has questioned the state mandate that children attend school, is open to decriminalizing marijuana and calls for repealing the state's concealed handgun law. The Rasmussen poll shows 28 percent of voters have no opinion of her. It's unlikely that she can overtake either established figure, but she may be able to pluck enough voters from them to force a run-off.

(snip)
In politics, one candidate’s gain in support usually comes at the cost of another. Ultimately, Medina's role in this three-way race might come down to your particular perspective. Perry's campaign insists it's unaffected by Medina, and Hutchison’s campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, says he’s not sure Medina's surge benefits one team over the other. " helps highlight issues where Perry is weak," he said, "but from a tactical standpoint, we’re going after the same people: people who think Perry failed at his job."

:popcorn:

Sonia

[kentauros]

3. I just started reading the AAs article a few minutes ago.

If her numbers keep going up, she might be more than a "spoiler" :)

Although her platform would make a race between her and White pretty close. Is the response to her debate a sign that Texas Republicans are becoming less neo-con and more moderate?

[sonias]

4. I don't think she's going to beat Perry

Her numbers can continue to go up but her cash won't. Even if she were to make it to the runoff with Perry. The corporations would fill up his coffers quick if she came within striking distance.

If he has to, he'll go negative on her. His campaign may say they aren't "concerned" about her right now, but I can bet you the opposition research on her, is going on right now. They will find all the skeletons in her closet for just the right time.

In the meantime they spend more money looking ugly and we Democrats can benefit by their infighting. :)

:popcorn:

Sonia

[sonias]

5. Ready to Runoff

Texas Tribune 1/21/10
Ready to Runoff

The latest Rasmussen Reports numbers have Medina at 12%, Perry at 43%, and Hutchison at 33%. If Perry fails to get a majority of the vote in the primary — what current projections show happening — a runoff would occur between the top two finishers on April 13.

A look at historical election returns reveals what could be a boon to Hutchison: incumbents like Perry have bad luck in runoff contests. But University of Texas government professor David Prindle said there’s no real pattern as to how runoffs treat incumbent candidates, "It depends on how the supporters of the people who aren't in the runoff — who did vote in the primary and are going to vote in the runoff — break," he says.

(snip)
"Primaries are a small, by-invitation-only party," Blakemore said, adding that in a runoff, "The voters will be much more conservative, and much more inside baseball players."

Texas law allows anyone who hasn’t voted in another party’s primary to vote in the runoff, but that doesn't mean all those people will actually show up. Blakemore thinks they'll be pure Republicans.

"To the extent that you can say anybody who votes in a Republican primary is a casual voter, which you can't, the casual ones will be gone," Blakemore said, indicating that such a scenario favors Perry.

This is starting to sound like Perry will survive a runoff. I can't see many Democrats voting in the R primary, but I wonder if those who self identify as "Independents" will make a difference.

:shrug:

Sonia