WSJ Poll: Strayhorn in the toilet (Perry's lead shrinks, Bell remains 2nd)

[Czolgosz]

From the Anyone But C4n3p blog <http://anyonebutc4n3p.blogspot.com/>:

Wall Street Journal: Carole 4n3p is Crashing and Burning

According to a new Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll, Carole 4Names, 3Parties (c4n3p for short) is crashing and burning while Perry remains vulnerable and his lead continues to shrink and Bell remains in second place with his numbers growing and Kinky numbers also continue to rise while he remains in third place.

38.3% - James "Rick" Perry
20.8% - Chris Bell
20.7% - Richard "Kinky" Friedman
11.0% - Carole Keeton "McClellan Rylander but-not-Grandma" Strayhorn

[acmejack]

1. Guess I will have to do some serious donating at the end of the month

So many races (and none of my favorite charities and causes take rest either), so little money. Wish it was the other way around!

[niccolos_smile]

2. I thought this might happen...

Strayhorn has been liable to succumb to this for quite some time, now it's only a matter of where her votes go. There's no way all of them would go to Perry, and even if they did it wouldn't give him enough to avoid a run-off.

Ultimately, the question is if the run-off is between Perry and Bell, where will Kinky voters go? Will they stay home or will they vote for Bell and give him enough votes to push him past Perry?

Bell should go ahead and start working to appeal to those voters now (I know he is, but assuming they don't cross over now, he needs to create some cross over appeal for a run-off).

[TexasThoughtCriminal]

3. There is no run-off. Plurality wins.

Wish it weren't the case, but it is...

[Czolgosz]

4. Let's be glad there is no runoff (we'd NEVER win -- even Ann Richards won

with only a plurality).

We can only focus on the good news:

1. Perry's lead is shrinking and his approval/disapproval rate is in the negative range,

2. Bell's numbers are rising and he's holding his position as the most viable alternative to Perry,

3. Strayhorn remains a siphon for Republican voters who cannot stomach Perry (and she will have a positive effect on straight ticket Republicans) plus she's mean as hell and she hates Perry and she has a hell of a lot of cash (Perry can't like this perfect storm for a hurricane of negative campaigning),

4. Kinky is only in third place (yet close to Bell) despite the fact that Kinky began with millions of dollars of name recognition from his singing and typing careers and now his reality TV show has already run its course (that was itself worth millions in free publicity) and despite the fact that he's spent a fortune on his campaign and he is now running out of money (Kinky's campaign funds come disproportionately from non-Texans and disproportionately from people who have bought the cheesy merch from Kinky's website and not from true believers) and nearly every election analyst in Texas agrees that Kinky will fade and the institutional advantages Jesse Ventura enjoyed in Minnesota are not allowed under Texas election law (e.g., same day registration on election day at the poll).

[cannabis_flower]

7. I would not say Kinky is not in third place....

he is definitely inside the margin of error. The difference between 20.6 and 20.7% is insignificant. Statistically he is tied for second place with Chris Bell. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Kinky supporter but I was a math major in college and know enough about statistics to know that this margin is insignificant.

You may be right about the rest of 4. though.

[Czolgosz]

10. Florida 2000 was also a "statistical tie" yet they selected a winner....

[cannabis_flower]

15. Yes but,

That was an election and not a poll. In an election everyone get to vote. In a poll the pollsters contact a set number of registered voters (sometimes it's just likely voters) and ask who they plan to vote for. If they called a different group of voters they might get a different result. The poll you are referring to has a margin of error of 4%. So anyone that is within 4% of each other is effectively tied. This has nothing to do with who I'm voting for (Bell). This should just spur us all to get out and register voters, campaign, and stump for our candidate.

[niccolos_smile]

9. Really; learn something new every day...

I just assumed it was like the rest of our elections.

[StellaBlue]

5. Good news

I say

11%?!?!?!?!

Awesome. I expect a massive defection from Kinky at the ballot, too... which, be warned, might be offset by a surprise surge of college-age idiots.

Edited to add

Come on... look at this guy!

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[Lithos]

6. The issue boils down to this

How likely are Perry voters to go to the polls during an off election? (Look to some really bad state constitutional amendment to come up to help drive his GOTV efforts). Bush has de-energized the GOP so bad that he may not get all his voters. Kinky's supporters I think are not as likely to vote either as they represent mostly a disatisfied segment. So I think Bell's numbers are solid, the other's aren't.

L-

[derby378]

12. This will partially depend on how many energetic poll passers we've got

By the time Election Day rolls around, we want Texans to be incapable of sneezing without running into the words "Chris Bell."

[cannabis_flower]

8. Look, I know ..

that we would like to think that Bell is in second place and Kinky is third, but mathematically speaking, .1% is insignificant - they are statistically tied right now.

[Czolgosz]

11. Generally, the guy who gets more votes comes in ahead of the other guy.

Lighten up Debbie Downer! It's a poll. Bell got more supporters than Kinky so he came in second. Get over it. If after taking a deep breath you still have a problem, call the Wall Street Journal and tell them they got it wrong when they reported that Bell came in second.

Where was your super math logic when Kinky was 1% over Bell and it was generally reported that "Kinky is in second place and Bell is in third place"? Why no lectures on statistics or margin of error then?

[cannabis_flower]

14. Look..

I'm not a Kinky supporter, just being realistic. A poll where someone is ahead .1% is not statistically relevant. The margin of error is 3.7% - which really means that Perry is ahead, the next two are tied for second and Strayhorn is dropping. A poll is not an election where the one with the most votes wins. All it means is the statistical sampling that they polled put Bell ahead by .1%. This might not be true if they polled a different sampling. You can't read too much into those polls. I'm just saying don't get too excited up because Bell is .1% ahead with one group of voters. It really doesn't mean his position has changed any.

[Czolgosz]

17. Who's excited? We're almost 18% behind Perry, and there's no prize for 2nd

place, not even a set of steak knives.

Look, if you want to send an email to the Wall Street Journal and complain that they misreported Perry is leading their poll, followed by Bell in second place, Kinky in third, and Strayhorn far behind them, and that they should have reported Bell and Kinky are statistically tied for second place, here's the email address: http://online.wsj.com/public/page/contact_us.html?page=Contact+Us. Don't let me stop you.

The real news here is that Perry remains vulnerable at this time and that Strayhorn's campaign is sagging badly at this time and that the Bell campaign seems to be moving slowly in the right direction if not at the ideal pace and that the almost universally anticipated collapse of the Kinky campaign does not appear to have occurred just yet (but stay tuned). One other interesting factor to consider: many have considered the GOP base to be about 60%, and many believe that Strayhorn will take from this base as she also takes from the Democrat base, yet if you add the numbers for Perry plus the numbers for Strayhorn, there is still a gap which indicates that the Republican base is not as committed to Perry or Strayhorn as some have assumed.

Still the poll doesn't answer most questions. Whether Kinky's campaign will collapse as predicted by S. C. Gwynne, Mike Baselice, Paul Burka, Chuck McDonald, the Lone Star Project, and a dozen other people who make such assessments for a living remains to be seen. Whether Strayhorn's campaign can recover based on the scads of money she has remains to be seen. Whether any collapse of the Strayhorn and Kinky campaigns will send voters to Bell remains to be seen.

[redqueen]

13. As time passes, more people will through Kinky's song and dance.

I expect these numbers to get better for Bell.

Thanks for the negativity anyway! With such a piddling reason for it, too! Helpful!

[cannabis_flower]

16. It seems you can't....

point out anything without some people getting their panties in a wad. I'd like for Bell to be second too. I like the guy and plan to vote for him but misreading polls is not going to help anyone get elected. I have his bumper sticker on my car, in fact.

What this basically shows is that we need be talking to people, register people to vote and talk about the issues. The polls don't mean anything when 2 of the candidates are withing the margin of error. It does indeed show that Carol "Foghorn Leghorn" Strayhorn is sinking like a rock.