Equality Texas analysis of Prop 2 results.

[crispini]

Ok, this is a little late, but I found this email in my inbox and I thought it was well worth passing around. It's pretty dense and has some good analysis of stuff. I've put the stuff I found interesting in bold. Skip all the way to the end for their summary.

THE PRO-EQUALITY MOVEMENT IN TEXAS
Our State - Our Lives - Our Home

On Tuesday, November 8th, Texas voters approved Constitutional Amendment #2 by a statewide margin of 76% to 24%. It was clear on election night that Texas voters were not yet ready for marriage equality for same-gender couples. Also evident that night was the fact that the election was but one moment in a long-term movement. We knew that when the rights of the minority are subject to the vote of the majority, rarely does equality prevail. We knew that on Wednesday, November 9th, while disappointed, we would continue our fight for equality. This was Texas: our state – our lives – our home.

On election night, we announced throughout the state our commitment to continue the fight for equality. We acknowledged that our mission was broader and the stakes were higher. We would no longer be known as the Lesbian/Gay Rights Lobby of Texas. We are Equality Texas.

Over the past month, Equality Texas began the process of thoroughly and carefully analyzing the results of the election to take away any lesson that would help us advance our movement for true equality for all Texans. While this analysis is ongoing, early indicators have validated some pre-existing hypotheses, and revealed some encouraging surprises.

There are, indeed, reasons to be hopeful for the future of the pro-equality movement.

Together, we built the largest coalition of organizations and individuals ever to fight for equality in Texas.
We initiated a dialogue across the state about our issues. Newspaper editorial boards in every major Texas city supported our pro-equality position. Editorial boards in numerous smaller cities across the state also supported our position.
The pro-equality movement in Texas is stronger and more organized than ever before. Relationships between existing state and national organizations, including Equality Texas, the Human Rights Campaign, and the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, have been renewed and strengthened. Five new powerhouse grassroots organizations came into existence during the campaign: the Austin Alliance for Social Justice, the Atticus Circle, the Campus Alliance Against Inequality, the Houston Equal Rights Alliance (HERA), and the San Antonio Alliance for Social Justice. Each of these organizations attracted talented and dedicated individuals who will provide the foundation for continued grassroots growth of our movement in their local communities.
Our coalition was joined by many organizations whose primary mission is not LGBT equality, including many communities of faith. These allied organizations stood shoulder-to-shoulder with us in this fight. This larger coalition of LGBT and non-LGBT groups has committed to continue working together to advance the common goal of equality, fairness and justice.

It is critical to understand the importance of legislative leadership to the ongoing progress of the pro-equality movement in Texas. This constitutional amendment, initially known as HJR6, made its way onto a statewide ballot by the narrowest of margins. The Texas House of Representatives approved it on April 25, 2005, with only one vote more than necessary. The Texas Senate approved it on May 21, 2005, with two votes more than the requirement. We didn’t lose the amendment fight by hundreds of thousands of votes; we lost it by only three votes. Less than a handful of votes could have prevented the amendment from ever reaching a statewide ballot. We must continue to work together through the November 2006 elections in order to change the leadership in the Texas Legislature.

While the pro-equality movement has numerous allies in the Texas House, there are several “pro-equality leaders” who not only vote for equality, but who advocate and sponsor pro-equality legislation on a wide range of issues. It is encouraging to note that in districts with vocal pro-equality legislators, the voters either defeated the amendment, or opposed it by higher margins than the average in their respective counties. This reinforces a lesson most of us know: elected officials who take a leadership role in advancing equality for all Texans can, and do, lead the communities they were elected to represent. Some examples of these legislators and their district results are below:


District
Representative
District Result

49
Elliot Naishtat – Austin
Defeated amendment

51
Eddie Rodriguez – Austin
Defeated amendment

90
Lon Burnam – Fort Worth
“Against” 10% greater than county average

103
Rafael Anchia – Dallas
Defeated amendment

123
Mike Villarreal – San Antonio
“Against” 9% greater than county average

147
Garnet Coleman – Houston
“Against” 13% greater than county average

148
Jessica Farrar – Houston
Defeated amendment


Major Metro Analysis

Travis County (Austin)

District
Representative
% Against

46
Dawnna Dukes
57%

47
Terry Keel
51%

48
Todd Baxter
59%

49
Elliot Naishtat
80%

50
Mark Strama
48%

51
Eddie Rodriguez
65%

Source: Equality Texas
County average
60%


Travis County (Austin) voted against the amendment by a margin of 60% to 40%. It was the only county in Texas to defeat the amendment. It is a powerful example of what years of organizing and activism can accomplish, and a powerful lesson on the importance of youth outreach. The Campus Alliance Against Inequality voter registration effort resulted in 1,500 new registered voters. The Alliance’s get-out-the-vote efforts resulted in 7,000 student votes, and delivered an “against” voting rate of 85% in campus-area precincts. Compared to recent elections, this is nothing short of amazing.

Both Districts 47 and 48 will have new representatives in the next regular session. Terry Keel is not seeking reelection; he voted for HJR6 this past April. Todd Baxter also voted in favor of HJR6 in April. He has since resigned the seat and a special election is scheduled for January 17, 2006. Equality Texas has maintained an aggressive voter identification effort in Districts 47 and 48 since November 2003. In both of these districts, we have the potential to elect pro-equality candidates.

Dallas County

District
Representative
% Against

100
Terri Hodge
37%

101
Elvira Reyna
15%

102
Tony Goolsby
41%

103
Rafael Anchia
55%

104
Roberto Alonzo
43%

105
Linda Harper-Brown
28%

106
Ray Allen
19%

107
Bill Keffer
44%

108
Dan Branch
59%

109
Helen Giddings
19%

110
Jesse Jones
26%

111
Yvonne Davis
22%

112
Fred Hill
32%

113
Joe Driver
18%

114
Will Hartnett
47%

115
Jim Jackson
35%

Source: Equality Texas
County average
34%

Dallas County voted for the amendment by a margin of 66% to 34%. However, 11 of Dallas County’s 16 house districts did better than the statewide average. In fact, voters in two of the county’s districts defeated the amendment: District 103 represented by Rafael Anchia (D-Dallas) and District 108 represented by Dan Branch (R-University Park).

Representative Anchia’s district includes North Oak Cliff, West Dallas, La Bajada, Los Altos, Love Field, North Park, Irving, Farmers Branch and Carrollton. Anchia was a “pro-equality leader” as a freshman legislator. Representative Branch’s district includes Downtown, Uptown, East Dallas, Highland Park and University Park. Branch voted in favor of HJR6 in April and has, so far, not been an ally.

In four of the county’s districts, between 40 and 50 percent of voters opposed the amendment. These districts included:

District 102 in Northeast Dallas and Richardson, represented by Tony Goolsby (R-Dallas);
District 104 represented by Roberto Alonzo (D-Dallas) in Oak Cliff, Cockrell Hill and Grand Prairie;
District 107 in Lakewood, Lake Highlands and Garland represented by Bill Keffer (R-Dallas); and
District 114 represented by Will Hartnett (R-Dallas) in Preston Hollow, Lake Highlands and Bluffview.
Of these legislators, only Representative Alonzo voted against HJR6 in April. Representatives Goolsby, Keffer, and Hartnett supported it.

Harris County (Houston)

(13 of 25 Districts Listed)

District
Representative
% Against

131
Alma Allen
26%

133
Joe Nixon
28%

134
Martha Wong
54%

137
Scott Hochberg
31%

139
Sylvester Turner
20%

141
Senfronia Thompson
18%

143
Vacant (Joe Moreno)
26%

144
Robert Talton
17%

145
Rick Noriega
31%

146
Al Edwards
38%

147
Garnet Coleman
41%

148
Jessica Farrar
52%

149
Hubert Vo
24%

Source: Equality Texas
County average
28%

Harris County ratified the amendment by a margin of 72% to 28%. However, the Houston Equal Rights Alliance (HERA) mounted an aggressive voter identification program in District 134, represented by Martha Wong (R-Houston), and voters rejected the amendment. This district includes Montrose, Meyerland, Braeswood, Afton Oaks, Greenway Memorial, River Oaks, West University Place, Southside Place, Bellaire, and the Texas Medical Center. Representative Wong did not cast a vote on HJR6, and District 134 has the potential to send a stronger pro-equality voice to Austin in November 2006.

While the results for Harris County as a whole were close to the statewide average, districts represented by several of our “pro-equality leaders” fared much better. For example, voters in District 148, represented by Jessica Farrar (D-Houston), defeated the amendment. Farrar’s district includes the Heights and Near Northside neighborhoods north and west of downtown. In District 147, represented by Garnet Coleman (D-Houston), greater than 40% of voters opposed the amendment. Coleman’s district includes the Third and Fourth Wards, South Park, Downtown, Midtown, Sagemont, and Hobby Airport.

Again, in districts where elected officials take a leadership role in promoting equality for all Texans, the constituents respond with higher-than-average support.

The rare exception occurred in District 141, where only 18% of voters in “pro-equality leader” Senfronia Thompson’s district voted against the amendment. District 141 includes Northeast Houston and Humble. Demographic information indicates the district is 75% African American and Hispanic. Campaign research interviews conducted in Houston by professional moderators found, that among African Americans interviewed, almost all genuinely believed that gay and lesbian people should be protected from discrimination. However, denying same-gender couples access to marriage was not perceived as discrimination. Marriage was somehow “different” from employment or housing discrimination.

Bexar County (San Antonio)

District
Representative
% Against

116
Trey Martinez-Fischer
38%

117
David Leibowitz
28%

118
Carlos Uresti
24%

119
Robert Puente
29%

120
Ruth McClendon
27%

121
Joe Straus
35%

122
Frank Corte
29%

123
Mike Villarreal
40%

124
Jose Menendez
27%

125
Joaquin Castro
30%

Source: Equality Texas
County average
31%

Bexar County voted in favor of the amendment by a margin of 69% to 31%, with nine of the county’s ten house districts faring better than the state average. In District 123, represented by “pro-equality leader” Representative Mike Villarreal, more than 40% of voters opposed the amendment.

The heaviest voter turnout was in northern Bexar County in Districts 121 and 122. District 121, which includes Alamo Heights, Olmos Park, Terrell Hills, Windcrest and Northeast San Antonio, is represented by Joe Straus (R-San Antonio) with 35% voting against the amendment. District 122, which includes Castle Hills, Shavano Park, Northern San Antonio and Northern Bexar County, is represented by Frank Corte, Jr. (R-San Antonio) with 29% voting against the amendment. Turnout in these two districts was more than double the average turnout in the county’s other districts.

Tarrant County (Fort Worth)

District
Representative
% Against

90
Lon Burnam
33%

91
Bob Griggs
18%

92
Todd Smith
24%

93
Toby Goodman
23%

94
Kent Grusendorf
26%

95
Marc Veasey
23%

96
Bill Zedler
16%

97
Anna Mowery
30%

98
Vicki Truitt
21%

99
Charlie Geren
23%

Source: Equality Texas
County average
23%

Tarrant County voted in favor of the amendment by a margin of 77% to 23%. Of the major metro areas, this total most closely resembles the statewide average.

District 90, represented by “pro-equality leader” Representative Lon Burnam (D-Fort Worth), had the best showing of Tarrant County’s ten districts, with 33% of votes cast against the amendment. This district also had the fewest number of total votes cast.

El Paso County

District
Representative
% Against

75
Chente Quintanilla
27%

76
Norma Chavez
32%

77
Paul Moreno
42%

78
Pat Haggerty
31%

79
Joe Pickett
27%

Source: Equality Texas
County average
32%

El Paso County voted in favor of the amendment by a margin of 68% to 32%, with all five house districts doing better than the statewide average. However, total voter turnout was only 29,183, the lowest of any major metro area.

What does it mean?

Texans simply aren’t ready for marriage equality for same-gender couples.

Denying same-gender couples access to marriage is not generally perceived as discrimination by many opponents. Marriage is somehow “different” from employment or housing discrimination. We must continue to work with our partners on education, message and communication methods.

There are areas of pro-equality majority support in major urban areas. There are also areas of moderate to near-majority support in near-suburban, non-gay urban areas. Further analysis is needed at a precinct-by-precinct level in order to yield more information about the makeup of each district.

We must continue to develop and expand our involvement in non-LGBT priority issues that are of primary interest to our non-LGBT allies. In other words, we cannot expect our allies to stand with us unless we stand with them. We must work together for the common goals of equality, fairness and justice.

In most cases, elected officials who take a leadership role in advancing pro-equality legislation for all Texans can, and do, lead the communities they are elected to represent. With few exceptions, their constituents will support their efforts to advance equality, fairness and justice.

The potential exists to increase the number of pro-equality legislators in the November 2006 elections. We can, and should, focus our efforts on making that a reality.

Together, we can advance equality in Texas: our state – our lives – our home.



Sincerely,

Chuck Smith

Deputy Director, Equality Texas

[acmejack]

1. Chuck is definitely a glass half full type of person, isn't he?

I was shocked that Travis was the only County that rejected it. It made me realize exactly what we are looking at in here in Texas.

[crispini]

2. It really pointed up for me

the work that we need to do to form a greater understanding between parts of our party especially on this issue. Even some areas that are traditionally Dem voted against it.

[sonias]

3. Great post crispini

Thanks for that analysis, great meaty read.

Tell me there's not an opportunity in Martha Wong's district? She should be so out of there!

134
Martha Wong
54%

Sonia

[carpetbagger]

4. Great stats, but I disagree with the conclusions.

I don't think this demonstrates anything about causality. My district (116) was fairly anti-amendment (38%), and my rep is a relatively progressive democrat, but I think guys like Martinez-Fischer and Villareal are able to be openly progressive only because their districts have good numbers of urban liberals. 116 has a lot of students, a lot of "old suburbs", and both 116 and 123 dip into the center of San Antonio. These districts were created to "carve out" the more upscale Anglo neighborhoods (Castle Hills kinda sits there like a dagger on the map).

I think there's good reason to be able to use these results to at least ensure that the progressive voice on gay equality comes out from the most progressive districts, but consensus and actual power won't ever come from those districts, which make up a small minority of Texans (probably a minority in all, or at least 47 or 48, states). If the goal is to create progressive enclaves, great, but I'm hoping for a bit more than an echo chamber.

I draw the opposite conclusion, which is that the groundwork for equality should be laid with traditionally opposed but possibly sympathetic groups. Here I'm thinking black democrats, but I'm also thinking about conservative "libertarianish" folks, who won't be on our side for much, but might be at least somewhat antagonistic to fundamentalist jihad.