Will the Dems have any chance to regain U.S house seats?

[Daylin Byak]

Thanks to the Texas redistricting masscare of 2004 the Dems went from controlling 13 seats to just 11 seats and the redistricting makes it more harder to get anymore back.

So with the GOP having a hard time getting back on track will there be a chance that the Democrats can win back some U.S house seats in a Texas.

[carpetbagger]

1. I think there's some possibility, but only for 1-2 seats.

Even if there's suddenly a 10-12 point shift in the elecorate, it wouldn't be that much.

These are the races we lost by 20 or fewer points in 2004...

TX-2, Incumbent Lampson lost 55-43 in East Texas. Lampson's running in Delay's district now, so I doubt TX-2 is in play.

TX-19. Stenholm lost 58-40, and he's way more popular than any other candidates for that space.

TX-22. Bugman won by 14. My guess is this is the only seat we pick up.

TX-32 Frost lost by 10. I haven't heard of him in the running again, and it's not exactly a friendly district.

TX-23 could be vulnerable if we run a real candidate, and TX-21 is not as strongly republican as it looks on first glance, but it would have to be a rather special year for these to fall into place.

TX-28 I'm including this, not as one of the 1-2 seats, but as probably the best chance of a democratic gain. It would be of significant help to the caucus if Cuellar were defeated in the primary. His democratic credentials are quite questionable (he was Rick Perry's Secretary of State, among other things).

[derby378]

6. TX-32 needs some serious help

We don't have anyone to run against Sessions yet.

[derby378]

7. You can disregard #6 now...

Pauline Dixon will run against Congressman Pete Sessions (R) in Texas Congressional District 32 in northern Dallas County.

Pauline was at the DCDP annual Fish Fry tonight in Dallas when she told everyone about her bid. Here's Pauline (on the right) with our very own ginbarn:



Message to all Dallas County DUers: Pauline needs every ounce of help and support we can give her to defeat Sessions in 2006. He's gonna fight dirty - he's done it before, and he'll do it again. It's time to chase him out and put Pauline in Capitol Hill!!

[sonias]

8. Yes! Leave no race unchallenged.

Way to step up to the plate Pauline Dixon! Courage, that's what she has.

Sonia

[flamin lib]

2. CD 6 has a dem running against Joe Barton.

Long shot, but somebody's gotta' do it. Dave Harris, Iraq vet.

http://followmetodc.com/index.php/weblog/index2/

[NoPasaran]

3. I think we have a real chance in 21

In 2004, challenger Rhett Smith, who had zero money and did almost no campaigning (which is good because whenever he opened his mouth it was clear that he was a nut) still got 35.5% running against Lamar Smith. For 2006 we have a real candidate, John Courage, who knows what it will really take to win this district. He's already been campaigning and building his grassroots organization for several months. It's not going to be easy, but I think we have a legitimate shot at this one.

[sonias]

4. Totally agree on CD21

We took a look at the Travis portion of CD21, on Prop 2 no vote. We will own the Travis vote. We're going to squeeze that vote turnout till it turns dark blue, and win this election. And keep in mind that Hayes county, which is another part of this district was the 2nd highest no vote on prop 2 in the state. Our blueness is growing and spilling over into Hayes.

Here is the Prop 2 No Vote at Burnt Orange Report for those that haven't seen this map
http://www.burntorangereport.com/mt/archives/2005/11/mapping_the_res.html


Sonia

[last_texas_dem]

5. It's unlikely, but...

...it would be cool if someone would mount a strong challenge against Kevin Brady in TX-8. Getting arrested for drunk driving should not be an asset. However, "values"-loving Texans have shown in the past that they don't really mind being represented by drunken drivers, and this district is so Republican that it matters even less.

If Delay is defeated, though, I won't mind if we don't pick up any other seats in TX next year.