Excellent Analysis of Prospects in PA. Primary

[JPZenger]

The following is an excellent analysis of the current situation in PA looking at each congressional district that will provide pledged delegates. The conclusion is, that based upon current conditions, Hillary would win a net of only 3 to 7 pledged delegates from PA.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/5/124452/9353

Eastern PA has a large Latino population, but it is mostly Puerto Rican. Therefore, stereotypes about Mexican-American voters don't apply.

The suburbs of Philadelphia include well-educated persons who have been shifting from Repubs to Dem in recent years, and where Dem congressmen have been elected who are similar in viewpoints to Obama.

A high African-American turnout in key parts of Philadelphia could result in a lower gain by Hillary.

A 45-55 split in the popular vote in a congressional district would still only result in an even distribution of pledged delegates in that district. Therefore, neither candidate is likely to receive a huge net increase in delegates.

[happyslug]

1. Remember the 1980 Carter-Kennedy Primary

Carter won the Western half of the state, Kennedy won the Eastern half. Since we are talking about the PRIMARY election, the GOP "T" in the middle of the state do NOT come into play, the Democrats in the T get to vote, and they voted depending on how close they were to Pittsburgh or Philadelphia.

One of the strange facts of that election, is the groups that voted for Carter in the West, Voted for Kennedy in the East. That is just how the election went, it was an East-West division, no division existed on ethic background. minorities (i.e. the black vote), religion, age, sex, Military experience, income level, all those groups went for Carter in the West, and Kennedy in the East.

I suspect the same will happen this year, Obama winning the East, Hillary Clinton winning the West. Now in 1980, Kennedy (i believe, it has been 28 years) lost Pennsylvania, more do to the fact of the Three counties with the highest number of Democrats, two are in the West (Allegheny and Westmoreland). The Rural areas of Western Pennsylvania have a higher number of Democrats then the Rural East (More to do with the old Coal Mining industry then anything else). I once saw a map of dialects in the State of Pennsylvania, the largest are of any single dialect was in Western Pennsylvania. I saw that map and thought I saw the outline of the Western Pa Dialect some place else. It took me a few minutes but I found the map I was remembering, it was the Bituminous Coal map region of Pennsylvania. Basically the Steel and Coal workers in this state worked together and mixed together much more than in the rest of the state, so we tend to speak the same dialect.

This "Unity" in thought is why the Western Part of the State thinks a little bit differently than the Eastern part. We tend to be economic progressives and social conservatives, compared to the Democrats of Easter Pennsylvania.

The Coal Map:

Source: http://www.depweb.state.pa.us/inspector/cwp/view.asp?a=3&q=476171

The Dialect map:

Source: http://www.evolpub.com/Americandialects/PennaDialMap.html

Even on a National Level, we have a distinct Dialect:

Source: http://www.ling.upenn.edu/phono_atlas/NationalMap/NationalMap.html#Heading2

Remember, both maps are using different way to distinguish dialects, thus I would push the Pittsburgh Dialect to Morgantown West Virginia as does the Pennsylvania Dialect map, but NOT the National Map (And notice the Pittsburgh Dialect in the National Map includes the Central Pennsylvania Dialect AND the Northwest Pennsylvania Dialect on the State Map). Both maps together show you that the lines between the dialects are guidelines only, not exact borders.

My point is this unity of speaking is based on the simple fact this was an Iron and Coal region and that unity of thinking still exists, and will affect this election. Through I see the black and inner city liberals coming out for Obama even in Pittsburgh, but is that enough to overcome the more conservative Democrats in the rest of the state that will go for Hillary?.