Hurricane Watch list for coastal NC counties

[supernova]

All up and down the coast

http://www.wral.com/weather/page/1010362/

[struggle4progress]

1. kick

:kick:

[struggle4progress]

2. The GFDL model says the storm will pass over Rocky Mount; the BAMS model has it

far offshore

trumad
Thu Aug-25-11 01:34 PM
This is an excellent Hurricane tracker link.
Interactive.
http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1812497

[nclib]

3. Well I'm pulling for BAMS then.

Not much chance of that.

[struggle4progress]

4. Me too

Long time no see!

[struggle4progress]

5. Current NOAA NWS forecast for our area:

Friday Night ... Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch ...
Saturday: ... gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch ...
Saturday Night: ... gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch ...

[nclib]

6. Steady winds of 30 mph.

That's what they said on the 6 o'clock news. Not gusts.

[struggle4progress]

7. Last Update: 11:21 pm EDT Aug 25, 2011

Friday Night: ... East wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch ...
Saturday: ... Breezy, with a north wind between 13 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night: ... Breezy, with a north wind between 16 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch ...
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.996896453738124&lon=-78.91204833984375&site=rah&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

... UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
... PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE- ...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DAY ONE ... THROUGH TONIGHT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN ... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HURRICANE IRENE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IRENE APPROACHES
THE BIGGEST IMPACT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS IRENE MAKES LANDFALL AND PROGRESSES NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE WORSE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AT THIS TIME ... LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
HOWEVER ... RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IRENE ... AS ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ...
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/data/RDUHWORAH.html

Forecast advisory #23 (8PM EDT) suggests 5-30% probabilities of hurricane force (>74mph) wind in our area and 60-80% probabilities of tropical storm force (one minute averages >39mph) wind. Maps I linked elsewhere update: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=170x12478

[struggle4progress]

8. Last Update: 3:53 am EDT Aug 26, 2011

Tonight: ... Northeast wind between 9 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: ... Breezy, with a north wind between 20 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: ... Northwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=rah&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=177&map.y=84&site=RAH

[nclib]

9. I wonder why

WRAL still has steady winds of 30 and gusts of 50 mph. I like your forecast better. :)

[struggle4progress]

10. Maybe depends on the model used, or how one combines results from different models

Looks like the westernmost track is now NOGAPS model, passing east of Wilmington, Goldsboro, and Rocky Mount, crossing the Chesapeake and hitting Philadelphia

GFDL now makes landfall near Morehead City and heads towards Scranton

Most models smack Cape Hatteras, Atlantic City, Long Island and go inland through New England

On the most optimistic side, BAMS whacks south Florida but doesn't touch land again until northwest of Halifax

Here's what weather underground is saying about wind in Raleigh, based on NWS forecasts:

Fri South at 2 mph
Sat ESE at 2 mph
Sun ENE at 2 mph
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?hourly=1&query=Raleigh,%20NC&yday=237&brand=wral

[struggle4progress]

11. Last Update: 4:37 pm EDT Aug 26, 2011

Late Afternoon: ... East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: ... Northeast wind between 9 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: ... Breezy, with a north wind between 23 and 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: ... Northwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=rah&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=176&map.y=84&site=RAH


GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-WAKE-HARNETT-CUMBERLAND
310 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 ...
WIND ADVISORY ... 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT ...
DAY ONE ... ISOLATED TORNADO .. POSSIBLE .. IN ASSOCIATION WITH .. THUNDERSTORMS ON .. FRINGES OF .. IRENE ... WIND ADVISORY
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN ... LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT .. WIND ADVISORY ...
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/data/RDUHWORAH.html

[supernova]

12. So far, only one band of rain

around here around 8:30ish. Rest is just misting/drizzle.

But got plenty of food, plenty of things to keep us occupied, and the pets all snug in side.

Hope you guys are staying dry.

:hi:

[Name removed]

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