State Senate Seats

[Lenape85]

District Number: Party - Percentage in 2001 elections

District 35: D - Unopposed
District 29: D - Unopposed
District 20: D - 80.02
District 19: D - 77.35
District 33: D - 75.34
District 31: D - 74.15
District 5: D - 69.39
District 28: D - 69.37
District 23: R - 69.26
District 32: D - 69.14
District 15: D - 69.11
District 17: D - 68.91
District 6: D - 66.70
District 37: D - 66.39
District 18: D - 64.96
District 34: D - 64.85
District 27: D - 64.69
District 22: D - 59.06
District 38: D - 53.22
District 36: D - 51.51
District 3: D - 51.50
District 1: R - 50.36
District 14: R - 52.09
District 7: R - 54.05
District 10: R - 56.82
District 4: R - 58.25
District 21: R - 58.60
District 9: R - 58.70
District 12: R - 58.76
District 8: R - 60.67
District 30: R - 61.66
District 11: R - 62.05
District 40: R - 62.29
District 39: R - 62.93
District 13: R - 64.39
District 25: R - 65.51
District 26: R - 65.87
District 16: R - 66.61
District 24: R - 74.4
District 2: R - 86.54

[rfranklin]

1. Nice cryptic post...

I'm befuddled and I LIVE in New Jersey.

[Lenape85]

2. Edited

[Osamasux]

3. Point is that the Bold districts are in play?

[Lenape85]

4. And the italicized could be in play if someone strong emerges

[Osamasux]

6. Got it.

Now to flesh it out and get the lay of the land.

[Osamasux]

5. Here are the towns in the 6 districts with winning margins of

less than 5%. Is this actionable?

District 38 - Cliffside Park Borough, Edgewater Borough, Elmwood Park Borough, Fair Lawn Borough, Fort Lee Borough, Hasbrouck Heights Borough, Little Ferry Borough, Lodi Borough, Paramus Borough, Ridgefield Borough, Saddle Brook Township, South Hackensack Township, Teterboro Borough,


District 36 - Carlstadt Borough, East Rutherford Borough, Garfield City, Lyndhurst Township, Moonachie Borough, North Arlington Borough, Nutley Township, Passaic City , Rutherford Borough, Wallington Borough, Wood Ridge Borough


District 3 - Alloway Township, Bridgeton City, Carneys Point Township, Clayton Borough, Commercial Township, Deerfield Township, Downe Township, East Greenwich Township, Elk Township, Elmer Borough, Elsinboro Township, Fairfield Township, Greenwich Township (Cumberland), Greenwich Township (Gloucester), Harrison Township, Hopewell Township, Lawrence Township, Logan Township, Lower Alloways Creek Township, Mannington Township, Mantua Township, National Park Borough, Oldmans Township, Paulsboro Borough, Penns Grove Borough, Pennsville Township, Pilesgrove Township, Pittsgrove Township, Quinton Township, Salem City, Shiloh Borough, South Harrison Township, Stow Creek Township, Swedesboro Borough, Upper Deerfield Township, Upper Pittsgrove Township, Wenonah Borough, West Deptford Township, Woodstown Borough, Woolwich Township


District 1 - Avalon Borough, Buena Borough, Buena Vista Township, Cape May City, Cape May Point Borough, Dennis Township, Lower Township, Maurice River Township, Middle Township, Millville City, North Wildwood City, Ocean City, Sea Isle City, Somers Point City, Stone Harbor Borough, Upper Township, Vineland City, West Cape May Borough, West Wildwood Borough, Wildwood City, Wildwood Crest Borough, Woodbine Borough


District 14 - Cranbury Township, Hamilton Township, Jamesburg Borough, Monroe Township, Plainsboro Township, South Brunswick Township, West Windsor Township


District 7 - Beverly City, Burlington City, Burlington Township, Cinnaminson Township, Delanco Township, Delran Township, Edgewater Park Township, Florence Township, Maple Shade Township, Merchantville Borough, Mount Holly Township, Palmyra Borough, Pennsauken Township, Riverside Township, Riverton Borough, Westampton Township, Willingboro Township


(on edit - had cut off first line.)

[Lenape85]

10. OK, here is my best analysis

District 7 is getting to be increasing Democratic, in fact, Assemblymember Herb Conaway (who was a sacrificial lamb against Jim Saxton) is looking to beat Diane Allen.

District 14 has a lot of Democratic towns, including Plainsboro, Hamilton, South Brunswick, and Monroe, yet has a Republican asm. in Peter Inverso. This guy could be beaten, but keep in mind, he does live in Hamilton, so that might help him a bit in a very large and Democratic town

District 1 is a little more questionable, but this was won by THE SLIMMEST MARGIN. Vineland, the Buenas, Millville, and a few towns in Cape May County could push Senator Asselta into early retirement. Also, they have a Democratic assemblyman in Jeff Van Drew, so this isn't a lost cause.

District 3 is Steven Sweeney, a Democrat, who appears to be in a very diverse area in terms of politics. Better watch over this one.

District 36 is Sarlo, and there are a lot of Democratic votes in Passaic, Garfield, and the Rutherfords. He could keep his seat, but we should send in reinforcements

District 38 contains a mixed bag, better surround Coniglio with the D wagons.

[Osamasux]

7. District 1 - NICHOLAS ASSELTA - Republican

District Office:
Main Tree Commons,
1450 East Chestnut Avenue, Building 1, Suite B,
Vineland, NJ 08361
(856)-691-3004

[Osamasux]

8. District 14 - PETER A. INVERSO - Republican

District Office:
3691A Nottingham Way
Hamilton Square, NJ 08690
(609)-586-1330

[Lenape85]

11. And BTW, Inverso is Dep. Minority leader

[Osamasux]

9. District 7 - DIANE B. ALLEN - Republican

District Office:
11 West Broad St.
Burlington, NJ 08016
(609)-239-2800

[Lenape85]

12. Districts 4 and 12 were won by Repubs in last elec. cycle

but appear to have Democrats now (Madden and Karcher). We should protect them, though.

[Osamasux]

13. 12 was John O. Bennett's district.

Karcher beat him mainly based on the uproar over Bennett's ethics issues, such as over billing Marlboro for his legal work. It is a mixed district and she could have a tough reelection campaign.

Karcher has been very active and I have been trying to keep positive letters on her in the local papers. She seems to be focusing on environmental and ethics issues.

[Lenape85]

14. Was this a special election?

[Osamasux]

15. No, the regular election in November '03

The timing just could not have been worse for Bennett. It was like a Perfect Storm. He started strong but was on the ropes by election day and Karcher won 52% to 43%. But the race was much closer than the margin makes it seem.

Bennett had been the attorney for Marlboro Township at the same time he was a State Senator. If I remember the time line correctly, there was turnover in the Marlboro council putting Democrats, led by Karcher, in control. They replaced Bennett as township attorney, as he was obviously partisan. He had held that post for over ten years. When they started looking into the workload the new attorney was taking on, funny things started turning up. There was one project (updating the town's code book) which Bennett had billed the town over $100,000 over the years and never completed. The new attorney redid the book from scratch and completed it for only $24,000. Then some "innocent mistakes" resulting in double billing turned up. The Asbury Park Press picked up on the story and ran with it. They turned up Bennett billing the town $160 an hour and just subcontracting the work right back out for about $60 and hour.

When Karcher started her campaign, Bennett was Senate President and a prohibitive favorite. When the stories were coming out and things started getting ugly during the summer, the county GOP head, Bill Dowd, read the situation early and asked Bennett not to seek reelection. Bennett was still in front and stuck it out. But every week more stories came out. By late October it looked like Karcher would win, but the big margin was a surprise. Because of Bennett, the mood down here was more 'throw the bums out' than pro-Karcher. In the Assembly, long time Republican incumbents Michael Arnone and Clare Farragher also lost to unknowns Michael Panter (Shrewsbury) and Robert Morgan (Little Silver), when nepotism charges started turning up. Without the attention on Bennett's problems, they probably would have coasted to victory. (Farragher was also county clerk and I think she kept that job.) A Green party candidate got 5%, just as an alternative to corruption.

The Republicans, Bill Dowd in particular, had someone in mind to replace Bennett during the 2003 race. It was floated several times, but I just can't remember who it was. If they run them this time, they will have had three years to work on their strategy. This could be tough fights in both the Senate and the Assembly.

Oh, after Bennett was out of office for about six months, he filed for his state pension at 55. The Press blasted him about that, too. I turns out that because of all these concurrent jobs he held for so long, he'll be collecting about $90,000 a year for life. His name is absolute poison down here now.

[Lenape85]

16. I though SENATORS were elected in years ending with 1, 5, and 9

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_jersey

[Osamasux]

17. Hmmmm, I do see that in the link.

Bennett was a long time sitting senator up for reelection. No special election was called. It was just the usual run-up to an election. I didn't give it much thought at the time.

Here's a link to an APP article from the following day. No mention of it being special election.
http://www.app.com/app2001/story/0,21133,848636,00.html

Google also found something on (hope this isn't blasphemous here!) the NJ Conservative Party's site taking apps for the 2007 State Senate election cycle. again, not a 1, 5 or 9 year.
http://www.njconservativeparty.org/NewsFlashes/2005candidatepositions.htm

Could not find anything useful at the State Board of Elections or State Assembly sites, unfortunately, and it is not spelled out in the Senate rules.

It looks like Wikipedia is wrong on this one, but I would be more comfortable if we found a clear, official source on the matter.

[jerseygirl]

18. Senators will not be up until 2007.

The terms are four years in the Senate. Only the General Assembly is up this year (2-year terms), plus the governor.

A note on the 14th - I grew up in that district - The GOP will target Linda Greenstein. Similarly, the Dems will target Bill Baroni, the freshman GOPer who picked off Gary Guear in 2003. Baroni is an aggressive lawyer and lobbyist and among the "rising stars" of the NJGOP and the Dems will want to cut him off at the knees, symbolically of course.