Is Charlie Bass vulnerable

[Lenape85]

OK, he only got 59% last election, and both Kerry as well as Gore have won that district.

Could it be that he could be ousted if a strong candidate runs against him.

[Redneck Socialist]

1. I doubt it.

it would have to be a very strong candidate (who?) and most likely they would need some long coat tail help by someone further up the ticket.

Charlie's strategy is pretty simple and unfortunately pretty effective. He simply never does anything. That way he doesn't really piss too many people off. It's pretty tough to get a grip on "Congressman Bland."

I'm afraid that, barring some sort of personal scandal, which strikes me as unlikely, that seat is his for as long as he wants it.

Some sort of massive post Watergate like, anti-republican wave might sweep him from office, but I don't think that is very likely either.

[FightinNewDem]

2. A good match for the district (unfortunately)

Unfortunately, Charlie is a very good fit for his district. He's a Republican, but not a partisan hack; he's pro-choice, which appeals to the old "Walter Peterson Republicans" from Peterborough and Hopkinton; he's conservative enough on guns and taxes to keep the righty base in line; and he has a vanilla demeanor while occasionally showing independence on a few pet issues like special ed funding.

Now, when Charlie leaves, this is a very winnable seat. The Dems actually have a pretty good bench in this district, far better than in the 1st district. Mark Fernald, Katrina Swett, Deb Pignatelli, Joe Foster, Peter Burling and Sylvia Larsen would all have a good shot at the seat, especially if the GOP puts up a right winger like Mark Brady or an ethically challenged character like Tom Eaton.

My own belief is that Jeb Bradley is far more vulnerable, even though the conventional wisdom sees him as invincible. Jeb is duller than dry paint, has sold out to the Tom Delay Texas Mafia, and seems strangely out of touch with his district. He flits from issue to issue, depending on what is trendy. For example, in all his years in the NH House, Bradley never worked on veterans issues. When he realized that these issues could get him press, he started hitting on them. Meanwhile, energy policy, formerly his signature issue, has fallen off the radar screen entirely.

Here is a question for everyone...did you ever hear a peep out of Bradley during the Delay ethics boondoggle?

Me neither.

[zacho]

3. We need to strengthen our hold on Dartmouth

Hodes got much less in Hanover/Lebanon than Kerry and Lynch did. While this was to be expected, the Democrats need to get more straight ticket voters up there. Then an upset against Bass would be reasonable.

[Lenape85]

4. bump

[MAlibdem]

5. Then Hodes should have campaigned here

He did not come to campus. He could have. He could have stumped for himself AND Kerry on campus. He didn't. He should have.

[maxanne]

6. maybe

He's been getting his ass handed to him across his district on Social Security.

I'm sorry to hear Hodes missed the boat on campus campaigning. If he runs again, he'd be foolish to ignore the youth vote - it's steadily increasing every year in NH.