Did you know Jim Oberstar was in a close race before the election?

[Eric J in MN]

I didn't know until after he was defeated.

[Brickbat]

1. As someone who lives in the heart of the Eighth, I knew it was going to be a possibility

and I felt more and more worried about it as time went on.

[MineralMan]

2. I knew, and it was one of the races I was following.

I believe there are a couple of reasons for his defeat:

1. He didn't campaign hard throughout the campaign period. He'd won so many times that he was over-confident.
2. He's old. He looks old. His opponent is not. His opponent is also an Annapolis graduate and not a politician.

It was awfully close, but I think the youth and military background, along with his lack of a political history and a reasonably polite campaign turned the trick for the opponent.

The age thing is unfair, but it was certainly a factor. Sometimes, longevity in office isn't a plus, and he just didn't look very dynamic during the campaign. Sad business. This might have been a good year for Oberstar to hand over the office to a younger Democrat who had been groomed for it. A pity.

[Eric J in MN]

3. How did you follow that race? NT

NT

[MineralMan]

5. What do you mean? I live in Minnesota. I have a computer.

I'm active in the DFL organization. I read. You may be surprised to know that it's possible to read the Duluth News Tribune right here from my desk in Saint Paul. It wasn't my primary interest in this election, but I follow all Minnesota politics on a regular basis.

Thanks for asking, eh.

[Brickbat]

4. I think Cravaack's team played it quite well. The timing on their "poll" that showed a neck-and-

neck race was impeccable. It provided enough of a media boost that statewide and even some national media said, "Hey, who's this guy?" and gave him exposure, even if at the end of the article it always had a little sentence about how this was a Republican poll that found these numbers. It gave him a lot of sympathetic coverage, and there wasn't quite enough time to turn that back.

So there was that poll, and then the debacle of a debate in Duluth and the coverage after it. Oberstar, who's an old Ranger, got understandably pissed when he shows up at a debate and is interrupted seconds into his opening statement. The moderator didn't calm the crowd OR limit responses from the candidates. The whole thing was handled by amateurs, and Jim came out of it looking bad.

Cravaack is an empty page, and for some reason it's easy to forget that House seniority is what's needed in a representative, even one you don't agree with. The House is the people's house, and your rep is supposed to look out for you and bring money and projects back. That's its purpose, and Jim did it well. What people think they're going to get out of Cravaack is beyond me.

[glinda]

6. His signs were on lawns of super religious people around here. So

I think he will shut down as much gay, pro-choice and public school funding as possible. I gage a lot by our immediate neighbors who run a sham "mission" but every election cycle they have huge amounts of cars in their yard for "meetings".
Also, the local Chamber held a big meeting and my guess is that he will focus on jobs that throw out all considerations of the environment.
The older population turn out came in my estimation about abortion, god, guns and Gays. Sorry.... but I witnessed that in full force here.

[Brickbat]

7. But the (admittedly, not-the-greatest) polls showed that in this particular race, it was the younger

people that leaned more toward Cravaack than the older ones. And that makes sense to me, with the way the Range is changing. Plus with lots of younger families in the southern part of the 8th who moved to the exurbs (and thus into the 8th) out of the cities, there were a lot of people who didn't know much about Oberstar and were open to the message of him being there for too long.

As someone whose household depends on taconite production, I hear your dislike of new mining and "jobs that throw out all considerations of the environment." I think Cravaack is going to focus on "Chamber" talking points like tax cuts and small business. As if another knickknack shop on the North Shore is what's keeping this district from thriving.

I didn't hear "God, guns and gays" mentioned at all, in any respect, beyond the MCCL endorsement. This was about the economy, the perception that Jim had been there "too long," and the changing demographics of the 8th.

The numbers out of Duluth were surprising to me, I must say. Only 60 percent for Oberstar? I'm thinking that's a result of the shitty debate. It got a lot of coverage there.

[glinda]

8. The Chambers are joined at the hips with oil/energy. You are most likely right

about a lot of what you said but I hold firm on what I witnessed at our voting place and also I live very close to the local Chamber and across from the nut Mission people (they are big Republican organizers here). I see what happens and when. I know the local Chamber has a big religious tie into having "pro-life" meetings there. I saw the type of people that showed up.
Now he may have fashioned his self for each arena in order to get those votes from those demographics. Ya think?

[dflprincess]

11. And his "non-attack" attack ad (where he "respectfully" went after Oberstar

fooled a lot of people. One of my coworkers who is mostly a Democrat said it would have been enough to make her vote for him (but she doesn't live in the 8th). Though she may just be talking. All this time she's been saying she'd vote for Horner but admitted when she was in the booth looking at the ballot, she got so scared of Emmer that she did vote for Dayton.

[FBaggins]

10. There was also a SUSA poll last week showing the race essentially tied.

One point up with 47% is very dangerous territory for an incumbent with his seniority.

Charlie Cook rapidly changed the rating on this race over the final month. From Safe to Likely D on 10/8, then to Leans D on 10/20, then to Tossup in his final (11/1) rating. Cook frequently has access to internal unreleased polls and other campaign information that we don't hear.

All this, combined with news that he was havinga terrible time raising any money from his own district, hinted that he was in danger. Though I don't know of anyone who thought he would, in fact, lose.

[DFLforever]

9. Yeah I was. I had seen a couple of polls over the last few

months having them just a few points a part.

I guess I was consoled by the fact the DCCC wasn't pumping money into the district
during the last two weeks as they did in MN 1 where Waltz was being heavily targeted.

I thought Oberstar had it under control and would prevail.