Bad news. Ehrlich and Steele surge in the polls. Take lead.

[nickshepDEM]

MARYLAND GOVERNOR
Bob Ehrlich (R) 47%
Martin O’Malley (D) 42%

Bob Ehrlich (R) 50%
Doug Duncan (D) 41%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Maryland%20Governor%20January%2010.htm

MARYLAND SENATE
Michael Steele (R) 45%
Ben Cardin (D) 40%

Michael Steele (R) 45%
Kweisi Mfume (D) 38%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Maryland%20Senator%20January%2010.htm

[davidinalameda]

1. I don't believe these numbers

that's nearly a 14 point swing in a month?

there's something way fishy about this

[nickshepDEM]

2. I have a couple of theories... 1. The MD-GOP milked the f*ck out of

that fake Oreo-cookie/racial-attack incident.

2. Blacks are fed up with the establishments attempt to push Mfume out of the senate race.

3. Ehrlich/Steele have been getting a ton of front page positive press.
* Property tax cuts.
* Increased education spending.
* Stem Cell Research funding.

[MissWaverly]

3. What property tax cuts

I rec'd a tax cut of $8.20 on my property taxes, and they have introduced a $5.70 service
fee, so that's a whopping $2.50 tax break, I am positively giddy trying to figure out how
to spend it. Now my water bill that was $19.00 but accelerated to $50.00 to help clean
up the bay, is supposed to increase yet again to clean up the bay. I don't know about
cleaning up the bay but's it's doing a good job of cleaning out my wallet. I know why
this is so, Gov. No Slots realizes that we miss the thrill of losing money because
slots have never been introduced in Maryland so he's giving us the thrill of losing money
while staying at home. He's always looking out for us.

[nickshepDEM]

5. They havent taken effect, yet, but Ehrlich proposed a 15% property

tax cut the other day.

[MissWaverly]

6. Oh you mean when he stood next to the senior citizens

Just remember he's the man that promised us slots, do you hear the clink, clink of a slot
machine anywhere in Maryland. He's promised a lot of "liberal" things now that election year is here.

[aintitfunny]

4. I will begin to worry when Rasmussen

becomes a reliable, not in the pocket of the Republican's, pollster.

[indigo]

7. Extremely bad news

but consistent w/ the Gonzalez Research January poll that finds that Ehrlich's approval ratings have gone up.

[DaveinMD]

9. don't worry yet

the internals don't show the same thing. Ehrlich is always personally popular.

[nickshepDEM]

10. Which internals? Steele's internals show him in

a dead heat with Cardin and leading Mfume according to the campaign email he sent out last week. Pretty much on target with these results.

Gonzales research recently published a poll that showed Ehrlich's approval has risen to 53% and his disapproval has dropped to 36%. Again, pretty much on par with these results.

Im hoping that the crosstab's on this poll are messed up. My gut tells me Rasmussen underpolled Democrats.

[DaveinMD]

11. internals

that I have seen.

[LiberalEsto]

8. Rasmussen is a rethug polling firm

Most Marylanders don't even know who Steele IS, let alone support him in the US Senate race. For him to be beating Cardin or Mfume in the polls is preposterous.

[Steele]

12. I don't put much

Faith in Rasmussen polls anymore. Here in Ohio, they show Betty Montgomery getting destroyed by Ted Strickland in the general. Only problem is that Betty is the GOPs top vote getter the past 2 or 3 elections, and no other polling firm has been able to duplicate those numbers. Everyone else shows the race much closer.

[AX10]

13. I find this hard to believe.

A double digit swing in the vote so far before the election? What gives? Rass is known for it's pro-GOP bias. Remember that.
I don't trust this poll.

[philmo]

14. Contradictory Zogby Poll

The Baltimore Business Journal is reporting that a Zogby poll for the Wall Street Journal Online has O'Malley well ahead of Ehrlich, and Duncan also ahead in a matchup with Ehrlich:

http://baltimore.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2006/01/16/daily28.html

Edit: Oops, I accidentally said this was from the Sun at first, I was wrong.

[AuntiBush]

15. Everyone I know wants O'Malley.

From Baltimore City, County, Harford on 'round. Many wanted Mfume, but fearful he could loose.

There is no way Steele or Duncan can do it. At least not from those I've spoken with in the past year, if not longer.