Governor's race

[fit4life]

I was talking to a retired state senator this morning and he says Lisa Madigan is definitely taking a look at running against Blagoyevich in the next election.

I think this is great news!

[Padraig18]

1. If we have to have a primary fight, this is as good a time as any, I guess

We're about as strong as we've been in a long time, and just so long as neither one fatally wounds the other for the GE, let the fun begin. FWIW, I'm gonna wager that Rod wins this cage match.

[fit4life]

2. I'd have to disagree.

Blagoyevich has upset a lot of his core supporters, like AFSCME with his hardball negotiations during the last contract dispute, and his threats to close prisons he previously promised to leave alone (Vandalia). Couple that with the split of democrats who Michael Madigan can rally to support his daughter and I think the scales are tipped in Lisa Madigan's favor.

It's hard to call right now, but it will definitely be interesting. I'm not particularly worried about who represents us because the repubs don't really have a decent candidate either. Their best chance is Ray LaHood and he's really only known downstate. Chicago carries a lot of clout, almost to the point of deciding most elections in Illinois, and Lisa Madigan OR Rod Blagoyevich should easily carry Cook county against any downstate politician.

I'm already excited about our prospects of strengthening our majorities in all parts of the Illinois government!

[Radical Activist]

4. Yes, Cook county will vote Democratic

no matter who we run for Governor. That's why we really don't need to run more Democrats statewide that are from Chicago. The biggest chunk of swing-voters who will split their ticket are in downstate. Blagojevich became Governor by getting a much better margin downstate than other Chicago Democrats have been able to do in the past. LaHood already represents a large group of swing voters that are the most likely to decide who wins the election.

[Padraig18]

5. Actually, it won't always.

Congressman Poshard didn't carry Cook Co. by a large enough margin to offset his losses downstate, and we wound up with George Ryan instead. If I had a nickle for every time some Democrat who voted for Ryan told me that they did, I could pay my way through graduate school and never work another day. This is why we have to get past the gun and pro-life thing; yes, Poshard was pro-life personally, but he also swore that he would enforce the law, INCLUDING Roe v. Wade; some Dems just couldn't bring themselves to vote for a 'pro lifer', even if he happened to be one of the most honest, decent, honorable and genuinely 'old time progressive' Democrats to ever draw breath.

It was so sad to see.

x(

[Radical Activist]

6. Poshard had a wide margin of victory downstate

I think a lot of Chicago machine bosses felt more comfortable doing business with someone they knew like George Ryan, rather than someone honest like Poshard. Cook county Dems are completely to blame for Ryan getting elected Governor. Yes, it was sad.

Anyway, I would also point out that Blagojevich came in 3rd in Chicago in the Democratic primary for Governor. He may have a hard time getting re-elected considering all the people downstate that he has pissed off.

[Padraig18]

9. Actually, he didn't.

If you look at the numbers, he lost Illinois outside of Cook County by a wide margin. Regardless, I mainly wanted to broach the point that maybe we should be open to Democrats of different 'flavors', and not always make abortion or guns (e.g.) the litmus test for Democrats, and instead examine the whole person.

:hi:

[Radical Activist]

33. So I checked

and it was only the Southern third of the state that he won by wide margins. I just remembered my impression at the time of all those tiny counties in Southern IL that he won by 80%-90%. They just didn't have enough people in them.

But yes, fine point about examining the whole person. I'm biased toward economic issues, which Poshard was very progressive on, so it was easier for me to support him. I thought it was unfair that cultural issue liberals defined him as a conservative. Especially after he changed his position on gun control.

[Southsideirish]

34. Poshard came very close to beating Ryan. He deserves another chance.

[seventythree]

43. I'll vote Topinka first

[CubsFan1982]

13. I have to disagree.

If you're going to run for office as a Democrat, I believe that you have uphold the party platform you run on. Had I been eligible to vote then, I would have either voted for Ryan or wrote someone else in, not even so much for the fact that he was "pro-life", as it were, but the fact that in the House, he voted against the Brady Bill and the assault weapons ban. I refuse to vote for anyone with a 100% rating from the NRA, Republican or Democrat. Anyone who can't see that the Brady Bill and the assault weapons ban weren't necessary measures isn't fit to hold office as a Democrat, in my opinion.

What I'm trying to get at here is that if one is going to run a campaign on positions that are almost diametrically opposite to those of the base of one's party, perhaps one should reconsider before he does run.

edit: Supposed to be a reply to Paddy's post, sorry. Just got some bad news and not thinking straight.

[Padraig18]

14. We're allegedly a 'big tent' party, and respectful of diversity.

The fact of the matter is that Rep. Poshard is a very typical rural, downstate Democrat. He made it crystal clear that he would uphold the laws regarding abortion, most particularly Roe v. Wade. Furthermore, I think you might be very surprised at what you'd find when you start scratching Illinois Democrats about the issue of the 2nd Amendment. Finally, Poshard was a hardcore supporter of organized labor, believed we should INCREASE and introduce balance into education funding, fully fund social-service initiatives, etc., ALL traditional 'progressive' stands.

The bottom line is this: rather than getting a moderately-conservative Democrat who was scrupulosly honest, fiscally-responsible and Boy Scout clean, we got that slimeball George Ryan, who almost singlehandedly corrupted every executive department under his control and virtually bankrupted the state. I don't see it as such a great deal, frankly.

[CubsFan1982]

15. Hindsight is a lovely thing to have.

Firstly, though, as I stated before, I consider Roe v. Wade to be secondary in a gubenatorial race. When you start having Senators and Presidents who question it is when I start having problems. If Roe v. Wade is ever overturned, then it is very concerning to me what kind of Democrat we nominate.

Secondly, I have yet to come across an Illinois Democrat who did or would've voted against the Brady Bill and the assault weapons ban. These are common sense measures that Poshard didn't see as necessary.

Thirdly, it's wonderful that Poshard supports funding education and social programs. But try telling an inner-city kid in Chicago that "Hey, you've got all these wonderful social programs in Cabrini Green, but you still have to dodge semi-automatic weapons fire to get to school".

It should have been obvious, in retrospect, for all of us to see what a crook George Ryan is. Remember that in 1998, the secretary of state's office scandal was only beginning to bubble to the surface. However, I would ask you this: pointing to the only good thing George Ryan did while governor, if Poshard had been elected, would we still be executing death row inmates? Recall that Poshard is also pro-capital punishment.

[Padraig18]

16. It wasn't hindsight, really.

I'm old enough to remember '98 well, and worked on Poshard's campaign. Poshard blew the whistle publicly on Ryan before the GE, and then Ryan just shut him out of the media markets with his well-funded noise machine, while Dems refused to even donate to Poshard. The lesson we need to learn from this is that 99 times out of 100, even a 'hold your nose to vote for' Democrat is likely to be a better choice than ANY Republican.

As regards the DP, Poshard was actually quite critical of the way in which DP was imposed, so I'm not sure that he mightn't have reached the same place morally that Ryan did. Don't forget--- Ryan was also pro-DP, when he was running.

[CubsFan1982]

17. OK, but where does one draw the line?

Regarding your first point, how many planks of the platform must a nominee be opposed to before he becomes unacceptable? Do we come to the point where we vote for the Democrat simply because he has a (D) after his name? I'm not willing to have a pro-life, pro-gun, pro-death penalty, anti-civil rights DINO as my nominee for anything.

Secondly, can you give me evidence to back up what you said about Poshard and the death penalty? I was under the impression that he hadn't really said much on the subject besides he was for it. If I'm misinformed, please enlighten me. I don't want to look like an ignorant ass on purpose! :D

[Padraig18]

18. Like any consumer, we look at the whole package.

Assuming that neither of us will use ludicrously-extreme examples, I think we have to look at the WHOLE of a candidate's record, and not just one or two positions that we don't agree with, e.g. . The reason I cited the pro-life argument is that it's an excellent example of what I mean: as long as Democrat X says that he will uphold the law, what difference does it make what he personally believes about abortion? If he agrees to enforce the AWB as governor, is it a life or death matter how he voted on the bill as a Congressman? Doesn't honor, honesty, decency and integrity outweigh some of those things, especially if he/she has other important, rock-solid progressive beliefs? I think you catch my drift on this.

I'll look for some of Poshard's DP statements during (and since) the campaign. I distinctly recall him supporting Ryan's moratorium, and also his speaking out on the Orlando Cruz case.

:)

PS--- In the interests of full disclosure, I wind up defending Joe Lieberman quite a bit in GD and GD-P, so I'm used to the heat. ;)

[CubsFan1982]

21. Sure, I get that.

Like I said, it's not AS important to me as when it's a Senator or President that's at stake. But if/when Roe v. Wade is overturned, it'll become much more important to me. Then the governor isn't really bound by federal law anymore.

For the record, I was going to vote for Joe Birkett for AG in '02 because I didn't really like Lisa Madigan at the time, and the Rolando Cruz thing is what turned me from voting for Birkett to writing John Schmidt in. Little side track, but it fits in.

I'll excuse the Lieberman defending thing, Paddy, only because you're a fellow history geek like me. :D I can't stand the ass-kissing douchebag!

[Padraig18]

23. LOL@ Lieberman comeback.

Hey, Joe steps up to the plate when it counts, i.e., party-line votes. Today, he voted with our side on the bankruptcy amendments, unlike some Dems.

:)

[CubsFan1982]

24. Every once in a while, Joementum surprises me.

But his vacillation of Social Security has got me twisted up in frustration. It's great that he's with us when it counts, but instead of full on making out with Bushie in front of Congress I'd prefer if he'd be with us all the time, especially when we're right!

[Padraig18]

25. In a perfect world, there'd be nothing but perfect Democrats.

As things are, I'll take a guy with a lifetime 78 rating from the ADA, even if I occasionally want to pinch his head off.

;)

[CubsFan1982]

26. Wrong, dude.

In a perfect world, there'd be nothing BUT Democrats! :D

BTW, where'd you get the ADA rating? I was looking for that the other day for something unrelated and had the damnedest time finding it.

[Padraig18]

27. Link:

http://adaction.org .

:)

[CubsFan1982]

28. Thanks for the link.

It's sad that Lincoln Chafee's ADA rating is higher than Mary Landrieu, John Breaux, and Ben Nelson's. Edwards doesn't look too hot either, but looks like that's because he was busy running for President.

[Padraig18]

29. Yeah, Edwards missed a lot of votes that would have helped his.

:shrug:

[CubsFan1982]

31. Side question:

Do you think Edwards should've run for re-election in NC? I don't know how he would've done, but at the very least we might've kept one Senate seat in the South.

[seventythree]

44. Madigan blew the whistle on Ryan

Michael, not Lisa -- and the party (not Poshard, to keep him clean) ran hard hitting ads with the burned out van in them, but then we got cold feet and pulled them. The polls might have said they were hurting us, so I am not blaming anyone. MJM is the penultimate pol, so I'm assuming he had the numbers. Trouble was that NO ONE wanted to believe that he could be tied to something so horrible as burning 6 kids to death. This is OFTEN the problem in politics -- I've seen it up close and personal -- if it is really horribly bad, no one will believe it until it sits in a court room.

Poshard said he wouldn't take PAC money and then ran a huge part of his campaign on "in kinds" from the unions -- that's legal, but IT IS NOT HONEST!!!

[kevsand]

19. If I remember correctly,

Poshard himself had some comments about litmus testing when he was asked to consider running again in 2002. I'm paraphrasing from memory here, so please, by all means, correct me with actual quotes if you've got them.

What I remember him saying is that he didn't think any pro-life Democrat could expect to be elected statewide in Illinois. I think he might have mentioned one or two other issues, as well. He was speaking with hindsight, obviously, but I remember this being at least some part of his public explanation when he decided not to run a second time for governor.

[Padraig18]

20. You remember correctly.

He did say that when quite a few in the party were urging him to run again.

[Radical Activist]

35. But I think Poshard understood that.

That's why he said he wouldn't push his pro-life views as Governor. He also changed his position on gun control. Gun control doesn't seem as necessary in a rural area with little crime where the nearest police station might be more than 50 miles away. When he ran statewide he said gun control made sense for Chicago and so he changed his position. He also was accused of not supporting civil rights for gays and lesbians, which wasn't fair, and it turns out his chief-of-staff for years was himself gay.
I think a lot of Democrats unfairly painted him as a conservative, and the Ryan campaign was behind that. I'm still disappointed because I think Illinois missed its best chance to dramatically change the corrupt nature of politics that dominates both parties in the state.

[Cuban_Liberal]

37. Poshard was a unique individual

Poshard was unfairly caricatured; he held a few positions that could fairly be characterized as 'conservative', yet an honest look at the gentleman revealed nothing so much a genuine rural populist. Yes, he had personal beliefs about abortion which weren't 'mainstream' to our party, yet at no time did he ever say anything other than that he would uphold a woman's right to choose; he was (as R_A notes) a 'pragmatist' on the issue of gun control, was staunchly pro-labor, pro equal rights and civil rights, was a true environmentalist, an educator/administrator who be lieved that we could and should 'do better' for our schools statewide, etc. .

I have the privilege of knowing Glenn, and the one thing that hurt him (personally) was the level of anti-Poshard sentiment within the party; he expected well-financed and -organized opposition from Ryan, but not from fellow Democrats. He takes a certain wry satisfaction and pride in events having vindicated him regarding Ryan and the allegations he made regarding institutionalized corruption. I personally feel sad for the citizens of Illinois, who blew off the opportunity to enable this honorable man to serve us as governor.

[mohinoaklawnillinois]

38. I agree with everything you said Tony.

What I remember from 1998 is the way Daley and the Cook County Democrats blew Glenn Poshard off.

At times during the race, it seemed like "Lil" Richie and the rest of his henchmen were endorsing that scumbag Ryan.

The media in Chicago didn't help out Glenn Poshard much either. I seem to remember a lot of Poshard bashing going on and not just from the Tribune.

As for the upcoming race, someone will challenge Blago in the primary, but it will definitely be an uphill fight. I'm betting Dan Hynes may take the plunge. His father, Tom, just retired as the 19th Ward Committeeman in Chicago, leaving plenty of time for fundraising.

It should be interesting to watch this develop.

[seventythree]

45. republicans don't support gay rights

and look at how many of them are gay!! (or should I say are reputed to be?)

[seventythree]

42. I disagree

I voted for neither 'cuz I couldn't stomach either. Poshard was a hell of a lot more than a personal pro-lifer. He constantly voted to ban abortions in Congress -- from sponsoring the human life amendment to denying our women in uniform the right to an abortion even if they paid for it -- and he lied to me about it, to my face (so don't tell me he is honest)before his handlers whisked him away. If Poshard is the face of the democrats -- I'll jump ship. What you evidently don't see -- and he did but tried to bamboozle me on that, too -- is that as Governor, he has veto power. A whole lot of abortion rights chipping bills could get to him and then it would be his decision. He tried to say to me -- well you supported XYZ and he's pro-life -- well, XYZ was NOT running for governor!! and he has no veto power!! Do I think he understood that, oh, yah, he did -- he just thought I was some stupid little twinky who would buy his bull shit.
Your personal profile comment might indicate that you are gay -- what the hell do you think Poshard would have done to the Human Rights Amendment when it got to him this year? Sign it????

[Radical Activist]

3. I think we have a much better shot if we defeat Rod in the primary

He has pissed off a lot of people. I don't think Lisa Madigan is the best person to do that though. She would be a symbol of Chicago dominance and machine corruption to a lot of downstaters. Most likely I would sit that one out and try to find a candidate for some other office to support that I can actually believe in.

[fit4life]

7. So who?

Dan Hynes seemed like a good choice until he got trounced by Obama in the primaries. Does he have the credibility to step up and run for governor?

It's a crap shoot at this point. I think Lisa Madigan could do well downstate. Here in Sangamon county I hear mostly good things about her and the job she's done as AG. Whether that would translate into downstate votes is the question.

[Padraig18]

8. Hynes and Madigan are both well-liked in my area.

I think either would do well here.

[dogman]

10. Hynes is one of the Dems who has done well Downstate.

I think Obama was a one-in-a-million candidate who could talk circles around Hynes. I don't know if Mike Madigan might not be seen as an obstructionist for siding with the GOP in last years budget debate. I think Hynes taking a stand on the flu vaccine might be a move to seperate himself from Rod. Lisa might be seen as a pawn in the fight her father has been in with a number of Dems.

[kevsand]

22. My part of downstate would definitely favor

Hynes.

Madigan would do great in Urbana, but has not done as well county-wide or regionally as Hynes has. A lot of folks down here don't trust her Dad (or Chicago in general).

Hynes seems to have broken through the Chicago label. He and White have both done extremely well in Champaign County. Dan also has a good relationship with labor, which Blago can no longer count on as guaranteed.

In 2002, it was mainly labor and downstate that won Blago the primary. I think Hynes could take both those advantages away from him, if he'll run. THAT's the big question.

[Radical Activist]

30. Hynes has spent a lot of time downstate

more so than Rod. He doesn't have a huge following there like Poshard, but he is still well liked. Liberal downstaters make the best statewide candidates for Democrats, but we don't have many of those left to run for Governor. Thanks a lot for not helping the downstate farm team Madigan!

Anyway, I was very unimpressed with the campaign Hynes ran for US Senate. He tried too hard to be middle-of-the road. However, I think a moderate administrator type has more appeal in a race for Governor than a race for US Senate, and how can you blame someone for losing to Obama? I really can't think of a perfect candidate, but Hynes seems like the guy with the least negatives and the best shot at beating Rod in the primary. Hynes has a base of support in Chicago, and he can win over downstate Dems who are dissatisfied with Rod. He could do it as long as he is able to raise a few millions fairly quickly.

[kevsand]

32. Hynes carried eighty-some counties

out of a hundred and some total in the primary against Obama. (Sorry for the approximation, but I don't have the tallies right here.)

Of course the counties that Obama carried were all much bigger, but I think this still speaks well for Hynes' strength statewide, especially since labor was divided in that primary.

On edit: you're right about the money. That is definitely in Blago's favor right now. Mega millions needed right away for any challenger.

[seventythree]

46. ditto the comment on the downstate farm team

[Tweed]

11. I know I'm going to sound like a broken record

But if Lisa is our candidate, Republicans will drill home the fact that the Governor and the Speaker of the House would be in the same family. How do you have a normal debate between father and daughter? The context changes everything.

[Cuban_Liberal]

12. That's a excellent point.

Still and all, I think Rod's going to win.

[davsand]

36. Blag's multi-million dollar re-election fund speaks volumes.

Frankly, I kinda of like Lisa Madigan--I'm not unhappy with her job as AG.

I kind of like Hynes. I'll admit he looked pretty bland next to Obama, but I'm not sure many folks wouldn't.

I can't say I'm totally unhappy with Blag either...

Right now, with my opinions of everyone's social skills removed from the mix, I'd have to say Blag has got the upper hand in both name recognition and in available cash.

Lisa could raise the cash in a hurry, and her name is pretty well known, but I think people want her to season some more as AG.

Hynes, could maybe raise the funds--especially if the North Shore Dems get on board--and if Blag pisses off labor much more.

I really DO think the entire race is in the Dem primary, however.


Laura

[Cuban_Liberal]

39. This thread shows just how diverse the party is.

It's been very enlightening to read all the replies, because they show just how diverse our party is; in some areas, Rod is greatly disliked, yet in others (like our area, Laura) he's still well-regarded.

IMO, this doesn't demonstrate discord within our party, but a healthy diversity and depth.

:)

[fit4life]

40. It's a good point.

But republicans tried to drive that relationship into her campaign for AG and people just didn't care. She's proven herself to be a tough capable AG who isn't just a puppet on daddy's hand, and I think if republicans try to focus all the attention on that, they're going to be in trouble.

[Tweed]

41. That's for the attorney general though

The dynamic between the governor and the Speaker of the House is totally different than between AG and SOH.

[seventythree]

47. Maybe Daddy would step down

if Lisa won -- he's been talking about it for years.