Statistician doubts the results of IL 6 -- Roskam/Duckworth

[AtLiberty]

FYI -- TruthIsAll had placed a fraud alert on IL 6 before the election. It was the only district in Illinois he had red flagged before Nov. 7th.

TIA: Who still believes the 2006 vote counts were accurate?

Then you are invited to a free vacation in Sarasota to check
out the voting machines.

This is a summary comparison of the reported National vote
vs. 120 pre-election Generic Poll model projection,
preliminary (7:07pm) and Final National Exit Polls.

There is a major discrepancy in the reported CBS News
national vote total from in the EDA summary table and the
state totals in the detailed table. The National vote totals
(57.7%D-41.8%R) are also posted on Wikipedia, but the data
source is not indicated.

What is the explanation for these obvious discrepancies? We
know that there is incontrovertible evidence of reported
incidents where votes were miscounted or lost (FL-13, IL-6,
FL-24, OH-2, etc.). And voter disenfranchisement, which
amounted to millions of votes, is a major factor apart from
the miscounted votes.

The bottom line is that the Democrats won by a much bigger
margin than indicated the reported vote count indicates. If
the Wikipedia reorted vote is correct, then the Democrats
received 57.7% + X%, where X =3-5%.

But it's impossible to know the actual vote count - there is
no paper trail. It's a sad commentary on the lack of
transparency in our elections. That's why it ranks far from
the top of world-wide democratic voting systems. Just ask
Jimmy Carter. Of course, the voting machine vendors think
everything is just fine and say the machines performed
brilliantly.

Is the corporate media (NYT, MSNBC, etc) finally waking up to
the extent of the problem? And what about the Democrats? Will
they just glow in the results of an election in which 15-20
House seats were probably stolen and two Senate seats were
almost stolen?
____________________________________________________

This is a summary table of polls and reported votes. Details
and links are provided below.

Summary .... Votes Dem .. Rep. Other Margin Dem . Rep . Other
Average .... 74.95 40.33 33.22 1.40 . 7.11. 53.8% 44.3%. 1.9%
Pre-election

Generic-10.. 76.58 42.96 32.09 1.53. 10.87. 56.1% 41.9%. 2.0%

National Exit Poll
CNN-7:07pm . 76.58 41.05 34.40 1.13. 6.65 . 53.6% 44.9%.
1.5%
CNN-Final... 76.58 40.24 34.43 1.91 . 5.81 . 52.6% 45.0%.
2.5%
NYT (adj)... 76.58 40.65 34.40 1.53 . 6.25 . 53.1% 44.9%.
2.0%
(I adjusted the NYT National Exit Poll results slightly to
include Other).

Reported National Vote
Wikipedia... 68.06 39.27 28.46 0.32. 10.80 . 57.7% 41.8%.
0.5%
CBS(11/09).. 76.58 40.32 34.57 1.69 . 5.76 . 52.7% 45.1%.
2.2%
CBS State... 73.69 37.80 34.20 1.69 . 3.60 . 51.3% 46.4%.
2.3%

Average
Generic-10.. 76.58 42.96 32.09 1.53. 10.87 . 56.1% 41.9%.
2.0%
NatExitPoll. 76.58 40.65 34.41 1.52 . 6.24 . 53.1% 44.9%.
2.0%
ReportedVote 72.78 39.13 32.41 1.24 . 6.72 . 53.9% 44.5%.
1.7%

____________________________________________________

Final 10 Generic Polls
---------------------
Poll.... Date . Dem .. Rep
Harris.. 1023 .. 47 .. 33
AP...... 1030 .. 56 .. 37
CBS..... 1101 .. 52 .. 33
Nwk..... 1103 .. 54 .. 38
Time.... 1103 .. 55 .. 40

Pew..... 1104 .. 47 .. 43
ABC..... 1104 .. 51 .. 45
USA..... 1106 .. 51 .. 44
CNN..... 1106 .. 58 .. 38
FOX..... 1106 .. 49 .. 36

Average........ 52.0%. 38.7%
Adj UVA......... 4.1% . 3.2%
Projected ..... 56.1%. 41.9%

Reported....... 51.3%. 46.4%
Deviation...... -4.8%. +4.9%

____________________________________________________

CNN National Exit Poll (7:07pm)
Sample-size: 13,208
MoE: 0.87%

GENDER
...........Mix Dem . Rep . Other
Male...... 48% 51% . 47% . 2%
Female.... 52% 56% . 43% . 1%
Total.... 100% 53.6% 44.9% 1.5%

CNN NATIONAL EXIT POLL (1:00pm)
Sample-size: 13,251
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html

GENDER
...........Mix Dem . Rep . Other
Male...... 49% 50% . 47% . 3%
Female ... 51% 55% . 43% . 2%
Total.... 100% 52.6% 45.0% 2.4%

____________________________

NYT National Exit Poll


GENDER
...........Mix Dem . Rep . Other
Male...... 48% 51% . 47% . 2%
Female ... 52% 55% . 43% . 2%
Total.... 100% 53.1% 44.9% 2%

____________________________

Wikipedia
---------
Dem 39.267mm 57.7%
Rep 28.464mm 41.8%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_election,_2006
____________________________

CBS 11/09
---------
(reported by the Election Defense Alliance-EDA)

http://electiondefensealliance.org/landslide_denied_exit_polls_vs_vote_count_2006



http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2775205

The CBS summary vote totals differ from the state totals by
2.902mm votes.
Of this difference, 2.527mm are Democratic votes and 0.371mm
are Republican.

It's a Supreme Mystery:
Baby, baby, where did the 2.9mm votes go?

Reported Vote (millions)
CBS........... Total Dem ....Rep ..... Other
Summary...... 76.582 40.323 . 34.565 . 1.694
Detail....... 73.680 37.796 . 34.194 . 1.690
Deviation..... 2.902. 2.527 .. 0.371 . 0.004

____________________________

The projected 10-Generic poll 14.2% Democratic margin
deviated by -9.3% from the CBS Reported margin, a 6.681mm
vote difference. The corresponding Democratic vote share
deviated by -4.8%.

U.S. House
(in thousands)
............... Dem Repub Other Dem Repub Other Marg
VoteMargin
Generic.......41334 30872 1474 56.1% 41.9% 2.0% 14.2% 10463
Reported..... 37796 34194 1690 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%. 4.9% 3602
Deviation ....-3538. 3322 216. -4.8%. 4.5% 0.3% -9.3% -6861

____________________________

MATCHING THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TO THE FINAL GENERIC-10:

In the following tables, National Exit Poll weights and vote
shares were adjusted in order to MATCH the Generic 10-poll
projection. Since the Final NEP is ALWAYS matched to the
REPORTED vote and virtually everyone agrees that the reported
vote does NOT reflect the TRUE vote, we are surely justified
in matching it to the final 10-Generic poll projection.

Final 10-Generic poll projection
.....................Dem . Rep. Other
Generic-10......... 56.1% 41.9% 2.0%

National Exit Poll
(adjusted to match the GP)

VOTED 2004
........Mix Dem . Rep Other
Kerry.. 50% 92% . 6%. . 2%
Bush... 45% 15% . 83% . 2%
Other... 1% 76% . 22% . 2%
NoVote...4% 65% . 32% . 3%
Total. 100% 56.1% 41.9% 2.0%

PARTY ID
........Mix Dem . Rep .. Other
Dem.... 40% 93% . 6% ... 1%
Rep ... 33% 12% . 86% .. 2%
Ind ... 27% 55% . 41% .. 4%
Total. 100% 56.0% 41.9%. 2.1%

GENDER
........Mix Dem . Rep .. Other
Male... 47% 54% . 44%... 2%
Female. 53% 58% . 40%... 2%
Total .100% 56.1% 41.9%. 2.0%

[mopinko]

1. i thought 10 was also on the list, but

i can't believe she lost. i had people in my polling place in chicago wanting to know why they couldn't vote for tammy. my sentiments about her aside, people loved her. people bought the package. it smells.

[mohinoaklawnillinois]

2. I'm sure there were some funny things going on in the IL-06 on election

day/night. Let's face it, while the Democrats have made strides in some areas of DuPage County, the Pukes still run the show overall out there.

I was extremely disappointed that Ms. Duckworth lost as well, but not surprised. I had a few older people in the precinct I was working at in Oak Lawn ask why they couldn't vote for Tammy Duckworth and/or Melissa Bean. The drift I caught was that they were extremely angry about all the negative campaign ads the NRC ran against them.