Jim Marshall..now is the time to determine if he's really worth it

[flaminbats]

In 2002 Jim Marshall was running in a newly created district..drawn by the Democratic state legislature. As the mayor of Macon running in a Democratic district, Marshall had most of the advantages. Yet his opponent, Calder Clay, also had a great deal of name recognition and the Republican backlash against Barnes and Cleland on his side. The result was a close race in which Marshall was narrowly elected. This year Marshall is running against the same opponent in the same district. Bush has campaigned for Clay in Marshall's district, and yet Marshall has a voting record which is even more conservative than Zell Miller's. To put it simply, Jim Marshall will probably be re-elected by a similar margin as won in 2002.

In many ways Jim Marshall reminds me of Nathan Deal when I supported him in 1994. Like Marshall, Deal was a widely admired community leader in Gainesville, Georgia when he ran for Congress in 1992. He had just served as President Pro Tem in the state Senate, and was considered among all Georgia Democrats to be a rising star. In 1992 and 1994 he was elected by wide margins, and did better than Congressman Ed Jenkins had in 1990. But the Republican landslide in 1994 led to the defeat of two other incumbent conservative Democrats, Buddy Darden and Don Johnson. This left him as the only elected white Democratic Congressman in an extremely bigoted state. Soon the pressure began to mount, business people who had contributed to Nathan's early campaigns were threatening not to do so if he did not switch over to the majority party. The RNC for the first time to considered Deal's district the most winnable in Georgia, and began seeking strong challengers. Also Democrats like Shelby, Tauzin, Hayes, and Parker were allowed to switch while keeping the seniority they had gained as Democratic members.

Despite his 12 years in the state Senate as a leading Democrat, and winning two landslide elections to Congress as a Democrat..Deal switched parties. At the time few people felt that he would really switch, but once he did..it shocked Republicans who had voted against him..just as much as the Democrats who supported him.

Now Democrats must ask what Jim Marshall shall do if re-elected? Will Jim Marshall stay on as a member of the Democratic minority in the House, and shall he continue to vote with the Republican majority even when they see him as just another political target? My concern is that only one of three things can prevent Marshall from switching after the election. The first is getting defeated by Calder Clay, the second would be if another white Democrat was elected in the 12th or 11th districts, and most obvious would be Democrats winning a majority in Congress. Unfortunately winning the White House or Senate, IMHO would have little impact on Marshall's decision.

I conclude by asking..what should Democrats do, if anything, to stop Marshall from switching parties after Zell Miller retires? Zell is probably the one line keeping Marshall connected to the Democratic Party, and once cut Marshall shall fall into the Republican cesspool. Can Democrats connect new lifelines to Marshall and keep him alive, or has Jim Marshall already joined the undead?