PA for Kerry! Electoral votes now 280 for JK?

[MsMagnificent]

Praise the Lord but double check my math!

Yesterday I had initially thought Kerry got up to 280 but finally saw that Ohio and PA had pretty much cancelled each other out.

Well TODAY PA AND Ohio are BOTH FOR KERRY!

Electoral calculator:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ev/

Note that it's set for the 2000 election, but you can easily input what states are for Kerry and get an instant result.
However Michigan gives all 17 votes to Kerry which probably will not be the case come Nov. 2. NH is for Bush. I don't see any more discrepancies.

In this site

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct06.html

They say Kerry: 232 and Bush: 285
I've crunched the numbers, and I STILL come up with 280 -- does anyone come up with different?

Note on that last link:
"News from the Votemaster
John Edwards won the vice-presidential debate 41% to 28% among uncommitted voters according to a CBS poll. An online poll conducted by MSNBC makes the margin of Edwards victory even larger: 67% to 33%. While the MSNBC poll was not a scientific poll, it did have 885,000 responses, so it was a very large poll of Internet users."

Nice, huh? Now watch the news ignore it all

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Here's where I think we're headed if we don't win Florida or Ohio

And with Diebold that's a strong possibility



SOmeone pointed out that Colorado has proportional EV's per district (like Maine) so there is a chance we can pull this tie out by a couple of EV's from Colorado.

[4_Legs_Good]

2. Colorado has an initiative on the ballot to do proportional

EVs. Who knows if it will pass, but if it does it's supposed to go into effect immediately.

At least that's the way I understand it.

david

[kennetha]

5. Colorado

I wouldn't count us out of Colorado, even without the initiative. We might just win Colorado straight up.

It would be sad, actually, if we won Colorado straight up just when they go away from winner take all.

But if Kerry gets any Colorado EV's, we're probably over the top, even without both Florida and Ohio.

I said this on another thread. I think we're actually headed for a possible EV pasting of Bush. I think he's headed down to something like 43-46% in the popular vote and something like 200 or so EVs. I see us picking off both Ohio and Florida and sweeping the upper midwest, plus picking off Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the West. If the debate Friday goes as strongly our way as I think it can, we may even be back in the game in Missouri, Arkansas and possibly even WV and NC.

I know that sounds optimistic, but I think Bush is about to hit a Carter-like tipping point. Recall, if you're old enough, that Carter was ahead of Reagan most of the way. But the dynamic of that race was that people had basically decided that Carter didn't deserve re-election, but were very unsure about Reagan. Once Reagan reassured them with a strong debate performance, Carter's numbers collapsed a bit, especially his EV numbers. I think the same thing is in the processing of happening with Bush. The air is about to rush out of his campaign.

[usregimechange]

4. where did you get that graphic? nt

[NewYorkerfromMass]

25. Made my own here and uploaded to my website

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

[Ediacara]

6. I'm still of the opinion that

it's Kerry in a landslide:

[kennetha]

8. I'm more or less with you

Bush is at a tipping point. Smart Repugnants realize it. That's why the Bush campaign has turned so shrill. They see the air starting to rush out of their campaign.

Once Kerry convinces enough folks that he is a credible alternative to Bush, Bush's numbers will sink rapidly. I think a lot of folks are just "parked" on either Bush, as the known evil, or undecided. They are in the process of coming unparked and moved over to Kerry.

[crispini]

9. Um, is that map switched for a reason?

Isn't D=blue and R=red?

[featherman]

13. There's some conflict about this

Some maps say it is traditional to put the incumbent in blue.

[LittleClarkie]

17. Nonetheless, it freaked me out

California does NOT look good in Red. Neither does New York.

I got taken out for my work anniversary a couple of days ago. As a joke, someone grabbed the coloring book and crayons they hand out to kids at the restaurant. It had a patriotic theme. I found a map of the U.S. in it and amused myself by coloring the map all in blue in front of all the Bush supporters I work with. I don't think they got it, though.

I let Bush have Alaska, but that was it.

[Ediacara]

20. The website I created that map on

US Election Atlas, has their colors reversed from normal, but you get the general idea :-)

[Hot Water]

22. Good lsd huh.

[ISUGRADIA]

24. This seems like a realist scenario to me

If things go our way. I'd think NC would be right on the edge of going Kerry.

[zoeb]

10. Zogby polls yesterday at the WSJ

had Kerry leading in most battleground states including Florida and Ohio also AR, NV, NM, MI, Wi, Pa, NH. I would think he would be leading in the ECVs.

[Ediacara]

21. Yep

Including Zogby's numbers gives Kerry 322 votes. Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia are all very close, and I think Kerry may pull some other pickups out of his hat as well and will end up in the 350-400 vote range. My map linked above is a 370 vote win for Kerry, but it could easily inch up to 396.

[Cheswick2.0]

19. We are taking Florida

ACT is going to assure it. If there is cheating there again I predict riots.

[Warren DeMontague]

23. Polls are tied in Colorado

Serious GOTV there could make the difference. I can't help reflexively fearing FL is a lost cause with Jebby, but hopefully people are paying attention. OH is crucial... but we can still win without it.

We're working on getting the voters out, they're working on getting the votes suppressed. If we can swamp them, they can't steal it again.

[usregimechange]

3. MI splits its electoral votes now? nt

[Ediacara]

7. No

Maine and Nebraska can split them by district. There is a ballot initiative in Colorado this season that would split Colorado's vote based on the statewide popular vote that would take effect this time around IF it passes.

[zoeb]

11. check this site...

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

[MsMagnificent]

12. Whoops sorry, brain fart on Michigan

[featherman]

14. Polls, schmolls... I've still got Kerry winning all the Gore states

plus NH for 264. This is based more on electoral history, registration, regional identity, and voting trends than on wacky, small sample state polls.

His winning electoral margin will depend on which of these most likely states he adds:
NV, AZ, CO, MO, AR, OH, WV, FL

I have my doubts about VA, NC etc unless his PV totals goes up to +4 or more instead of the more likely +2 or +2.5.

As a side note: keep an eye on Montana, not a bad place to make a play. Voted for Clinton in 1992 and has such a small population that a strong push in Missoula and Billings might swing the state. Just a thought.

We survived August and the GOP convention bounce and things are getting back to where they should be, mapwise.

[gcomeau]

15. The Zogby poll numbers...

...won't be included in the electoral-vote.com tally until tomorrow's update.

-Grant

[mdguss]

16. If Kerry:

Is within 2 or 3 points in places like Ohio and Missouri, he'll win them. The Democratic GOTV effort is far superior to the Republicans GOTV effort. The 250% increased registration in Democratic areas of Ohio is extremely important, and Kerry will win Ohio because of it. But many of those efforts depend heavily on volunteers. GET OUT THERE THE WEEK BEFORE THE ELECTION!

[Cheswick2.0]

18. electoral vote.com is soooooooooo off

no way is bush taking Pa, MD or NJ

[Hans Delbrook]

27. PA is solid for Kerry

We are registering loads of new voters both here in Bucks County and in Philadelphia (I talked with someone at Demo HQ who works with the city folks.) And these people are MOTIVATED.

In Pittsburgh the Heinz name is magic - they will go strong for Kerry too. Of course the middle of the state (land o' militia nuts) will go for chimpy but those of us with frontal cortexes will SWAMP them.

[DemocracyInaction]

26. Watch the east coast on election night---it's going to make or break

this whole thing. If some 'blue state' turns red, the air will go out of the baloon and spread throughout the country. It's happened many times in the past. If the east comes in with all the blue states standing and an additional state is picked up, the wave will spread across the nation. PA is going to be a real key and, if NJ is as tight as they say, it's another key. NH will make a minor splash if it changes to blue BUT if we could get something else in the east to change color, Kerry will go strong all night long. Do not count on Florida. That is a total lost cause. Whatever it takes for Jeb, it will never be called for Kerry.

[mconvente]

28. I thought the media wasnt going to declare winners

Because that would cause people out west in crucial states (CO and NV) to not vote because they'd fear we would lose anyway (well it would be good if the trend was toward us though!). Of course we all know how the media works...