10/02 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 296 EV, 88% WIN PROB, 51.25% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[olddem43]

1. TIA - I really appreciate your statistics - keep them coming.

Sometimes, when I get depressed about the outcome, you are the only one with positive news. Your work is surely helping to achieve the victory we need.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

2. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!

Thanks for changing the undecided allocation to a range! That kicks ass! Now I can see what I was wondering about, and I am really glad to know that number.

Also, you learned me up a bit. I did think it was going to make a greater difference. How long have you been doing this sort of stuff?

You know, it is because of your model that I am pretty sure Kerry has a chance in a fair election. We are having a fair election in 30 days, right? Um... Right? Bueller?

[TruthIsAll]

4. The undecided range has been there from the beginning.

You just noticed it? Come on.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

5. No, I didn't notice it before today.

That's embarrassing, I never saw that before. Yes I do this stuff for a day job, but that's sort of the problem. Too tired to read for details all the time. Sorry I never noticed before.

I was re-reading your results today because you posted new calculations. So I was reading them like usual, but I guess I just was reading in more detail today.

It did a lot to reassure me about your already excellent model.

Question:

Are those 5000-run recreations with different levels, or are those levels all produced on each of the 5000 runs? No real difference either way, I am just curious.

One nit-pick: it's hard for me to see some of the text with a blue background. A little too low contrast, so maybe the text could be yellow or the blue closer to white or 0xc0c0ff? ;)

[TruthIsAll]

6. I run 5,000 trials for each case, or 25000 total runs

They are done simultaneously ib a millisecond.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

3. Another point:

What with the debate having gone SO well, the distribution of undecideds really does seem like it could be even more than 60%, so the model results really look promising in light of the debate's likely outcome.

:)

I hope I'm not getting cocky, though. I just want to believe Kerry is going to win by winning the vote.

[VDHark]

7. that's a great model

first time

[Longhorn]

8. Welcome to DU!

:hi: