The Battleground States: Kerry's Current and Projected Odds

TruthIsAll

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Mon Sep-27-04 03:11 PM
Original message

The Battleground States: Kerry's Current and Projected Odds

Edited on Mon Sep-27-04 03:14 PM by TruthIsAll

Want more of this?
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

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Melodybe

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Mon Sep-27-04 03:14 PM
Response to Original message

1. Ohio and Florida are not swing states

here is the proof:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2418611

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TruthIsAll

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Mon Sep-27-04 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. Jebbie and Diebold; do we stand a chance against the fixers?

tia

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Melodybe

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Mon Sep-27-04 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. Doesn't matter we will still have the voter registration rolls

when the UN has to help us sort out the mess.

And now I have links to the national press reporting on it.

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shawmut

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Mon Sep-27-04 03:14 PM
Response to Original message

2. I'm surprised to see MO lower than VA n/t

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TruthIsAll

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Mon Sep-27-04 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. An explanation...

Edited on Mon Sep-27-04 03:28 PM by TruthIsAll

The polls:
....K...B..Other
MO 44 50 6
VA 43 49 8

Since there are 8% undecided/other in VA, but only 6% in MO, Kerry has a slightly (2%) better projection probability there. Assume he gets 60% of the undecided/others.

If it were held today, the probabilties are almost exactly the same (not quite), but why quibble over decimals?

Of course, these numbers can change tommorrow. And so will the probabilties.

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