Wisconsin

[cyr330]

Does anybody know how things are going in Wisconsin? If this is a repeat, I apologize.

[htuttle]

1. 75 degrees and sunny, 41% humidity

It's a beautiful day in the People's Republic of Madison, and I feel fine.

I also haven't met a Republican in person for about 2 years. Polls tell me that Wisconsin is close, but they are the ONLY indicator that it is a close race here. In reality, most Bush supporters seem to be holed up in a couple of heavily armed enclaves in Waukesha County (or so I hear).

Honestly, I don't know how it's going here. Too much cognitive dissonance to be sure.

:shrug:

[FlaIndie]

2. polls aren't worth a sh*t there

One will have Kerry up 2, the next Shrub is up 14.

Same thing happens in Florida, too. But you look at voting trends and the reliability of the polls in 2000, you know Kerry will make those dumbasses at Gallup and Survey USA open up their excuse book.

"It was only a snapshot!"
"Voter volatility!"

[Awsi Dooger]

3. From Evan Thomas of Newsweek on Imus this morning:

"When Kerry was in Wisconsin, he referred to Lambeau Field as Lambert Field. Bye-bye Wisconsin, and that's a swing state."

Obviously that's an overstatement, but incredible to me a candidate can make that type of gaffe especially in a pivotal state we need to hold. The Packers are the pride of the state and you know it's probable a chunk of white males dismissed Kerry as an out of touch phony based on screwing up the name of their stadium, if that statement got any type of air time on local channels statewide.

Wisconsin is no longer a reliable Democratic state, voting just .22 for Gore over Bush in 2000.

[stryker18]

5. The Packers suck anyway.

Go Patriots!

:evilgrin:

[ClassWarrior]

7. Give me a break.

Nobody gave a damn about "Lambert Field." We're not THAT Neanderthal.

(Although you do look at head cheese and wonder...)

23.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Well obviously Kerry isn't very French then.

Lambeau is obviously French. Can't blame Kerry for that.

Seriously, as a Bosox fan, if someone was running for prez and referred to Fenwick Park, I'd let it slide. And I'm sure Kerry's not the first person to make this mistake. It's such a lame ass minor thing. Especially since we're electing someone who knows how to run our country, not star on ESPN.

[htuttle]

9. I asked people I know about that 'gaffe'

And not a single one had heard of it. After I told them about it, not a one of them thought it was a big deal.

Have you ever seen the names of cities and towns here? If somebody comes here and correctly pronounces 'Oconomowoc', we know they've been here before! We have to have some of the hardest location names to pronounce in the US. Everybody screws them up.

I think it was a bigger deal to the "Judy Woodruff crowd" than to most Wisconsinites.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Then Evan Thomas is an idiot, at least in this case

I swear he said, "Bye-bye Wisconsin" and acted like the comment was all over the Wisconsin media.

I just wish Kerry would refrain from sports related comments in key states unless he's sure he's got everything right. I know he made a minor goof about the margin in the Red Sox division race and referred to Bowling Green University in Ohio when he was in Michigan. A Sports Illustrated poll last month with 40,000+ respondents gave Bush a ridiculous lead over Kerry both in which one was a better athlete and which one is a bigger sports fan, the latter something like 75-25%. In an election this critical and potentially close, I don't want to give anyone more of a jackass excuse to vote for Bush than they could already have.

[sybylla]

10. Don't sweat the Lambert comment

The media up here (at least north of Madison) sucks so most sheeple probably haven't even heard about it.

Wisconsin went for Gore in 2000, we went for Raygun in '84 and I think we also went for Bush I in '88. We've not been reliably Dem for quite some time.

But just because Gore won by less then 7000 votes, don't assume we are even close to going puke this time. Things have changed dramatically.

There are parts of the state that are bastions for no-government Libertarians who know what the Patriot Act did. Then there are parts of the state, like my county, filled with flaming nutjob fundies that will vote puke as long as their candidate is breathing. And then there are the population centers full of diveristy with ready access to information. These areas tend to choose our Pres and Senators while the rest of the state is just the sugar on top. If they don't win Madison, Milwaukee and the Fox Valley, they don't win the state. It's been true in every federal election I've watched since Raygun.

The polls have been swinging from day to day, polster to polster. This, in my book, makes none of them credible without further examination of their criteria and methods. I don't have any time for that. But what I do know is that liberal voters are motivated like I've never seen them before. I don't think polsters can predict how this election will turn out. There really are too many factors to judge.

[AngryAmish]

4. I am going fishing up there on Friday

It is too early for turnover. I assume the salmon run is good (it is good everywhere else).

[papau]

6. Kerry Warns Dairyland Voters of Bush Plan (BUT AP laughs at "secret"!)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&nci...

Kerry Warns Dairyland Voters of Bush Plan(not renew Milk Income Loss Contract)

By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer

SPRING GREEN, Wis. - Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry told voters in America's Dairyland on Monday that President Bush had a secret plan that would hurt milk producers after the election. <snip>

"We've had a difference between the Midwest and the Northeast," Kerry said. "I'm going to be very upfront with you about it.

"As a senator representing Massachusetts, I fought for the dairy compact and fought to have our dairy farmers get help," he said. "I'm running for president of the United States now and I intend to represent all the farmers of America."

Kerry said Bush is opposing an effort to extend the Milk Income Loss Contract that helps dairy farmers when milk prices drop and is set to expire in October 2005. He said the Bush administration would wait until after the election to act so voters in swing dairy states wouldn't turn against him. <snip>

[sybylla]

11. It WAS "secret" until recently - screw the AP

Dave Obey apparently got his hands on a "USDA dairy briefing paper which suggests that a new 'milk tax' and a cut in the dairy price support is under consideration by the Bush Administration and may be imposed after the election, along with termination of the Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program." He started spreading the word two weeks ago after he sent a letter to Sec. Veneman about it.

If they can get this to stick, I think it could swing the dairy farmers and hand Wisconsin to Kerry on a platter. Dairy farmers here are getting such low prices for their product (except for a few months last spring) that most can barely keep their heads above water. More taxes and decreased price supports will no doubt put many more under.

The only problem is that Kerry has his own baggage on dairy - he voted for the New England Dairy Compact, which you would expect him to do but it hurt farmers in the midwest if I understand it correctly. So there's a bit of a credibility hurdle.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

12. This only helps Kerry. Not a thing wrong with NEDC

Farmers here needed help, and it workded so well that NY state later signed up as well.
Kerry has proven he will help the dairy farmers he represents.

[sybylla]

15. I'm sure it will help Kerry in some sense

but that depends on how he voted to remove/prevent (amend) the contingencies in the NEDC that would have helped midwest dairy farmers as well. I know my reps were fighting for them and lost.

[kcwayne]

14. My elderly mother lives in far northwest Wisconsin

and she is saying she doesn't know anyone that likes Bush. She is rip roaring ready to vote his sorry ass out of office, and I have never before seen her car about elections in my life.

By way of disclosure, she has always considered herself to be a Democrat. Her father had heart disease early in life and lost his farm in the depression. They depended on programs created by Roosevelt for their very existence, so she is highly tuned into the idea that government has a role to play in creating a safety net for its citizens.

[goddess40]

16. Nadar factor

In 2000, Nadar got over 94,000 votes in Wisconsin. There is no way he is going to get that many this time. I personally know 6 people who voted Nadar before who are voting Kerry this time. If even half of the Nadar votes go for Kerry, Kerry will take Wisconsin.

[htuttle]

17. Last time, most people who voted for Nader here did so in order to...

...help the Green Party win ballot status -- that 5% threshold. I knew a whole bunch of people who did the vote trading thing in 2000 -- again, for the purpose of getting the Green Party on the ballot.

Even with that, while Nader polled at about 6% before the 2000 election, he only ended up getting about 2-3% in WI. That's because a lot of potential Nader voters got worried about Gore's chances at the last minute, and voted Democratic instead of Green. That was borne out by the WI Green Party's own post-election research.

Given that Nader isn't even running on the Green Party this year, I doubt he'll get even 3% in Wisconsin. Cobb is likely to draw away a fair amount of the support he had last time, not to mention the fact that NOBODY wants to risk another Bush win.