Gore won 21 states. Kerry is leading in all of them as well as 4 others...

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry is doing better than Gore.

And Gore WON last time.

Don't listen to Fineman, Matthews, Schneider and all the other media whores.

Trust Zogby. Trust ARG.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[jean]

1. thanks TIA - this is very reassuring

[TheFarseer]

2. Don't trust Badger Poll (if you look at electoral-vote.com)

there's no way Wisconsin is a landslide for bush. Most Zogby and ARG results seem pretty reasonable. I wonder a little how New Hampshire could be going bush but I guess that's that little thing called MofE

[TruthIsAll]

3. That's why I did not update today, as I usually do.

Electoral-vote.com included crap polls like the Badger poll, only because they were just released - ONE day after ARG and two days after ZOGBY.

That, to me, was a mistake. I am NOT cherrypicking because I won't drop these reputable, solid polls with obvious crappola like this Wisconsin joke.

Even if Badger had Kerry up, I would not have included it in my model.

[RoyGBiv]

7. This site is starting to annoy me ...

The whole logic behind it is screwed up. I know the person means well, but this idea of using "the most recent poll" is silly. Different polls are based in different methods and thus produce different kinds of results. If you follow that site and that site only, you end with things like CA being within the margin of error one week and a ten point lead for Kerry another. New Mexico on that site, using the same poll that created squirrely results in other states, has taken a 10 point jump in Bush's favor inside of a week. It's just bizarre and not an effective way to track trends.

IMO.

[question everything]

4. Except... since last elections we had the census

and red states gained electoral votes while blue ones lost.

I agree that we should ignore most polls, but we also need to understand the change in demographics.

[Melodybe]

5. Still most people are pissed at Bush

even with the charge in demographis, we are the majority.

Democrats are out registering voters in numbers 2-5 times that of republicans.

The repubs are waking up a sleeping giant, and they don't even know it.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Kerry is still leading in states with over 300 EV.

The demographics are moving in the favor of the Democrats - record registration of young voters, more hispanics, asians, gays.....

True, Repuke redistricting makes it slightly tougher, but we might just win one of those states.

[Andromeda]

8. As always, thanks TIA

:kick:

[DemBones DemBones]

9. I like these numbers, TIA!!!

:7 :7 :7

[Toronto Ron]

10. TIA, do you use The Economist's poll?

I don't see it in your numbers. It seems to be a solid poll, released every Wednesday night. About 2000 respondents (e-mail). Had b*sh up by 1% last week, Kerry by 1% this week. Lots of supplementary questions.

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2907805

[Clinton Crusader]

11. I HAVE to get away from cable news...

CNN showed a 'new' EV map this morning that was so horrifying in it's 'red' content, it looked like someone bled over it. With all the bullshit over the last 4 years, I refuse to accept this version of the country. I mean, 95% of the map was RED. And of course, the commentator, a woman, dont remember her name had this smirk (no lie) on her face and that 'slowly-shaking-her-head thing' as if saying, well, it's all over now...

I need to get the old TV out so I can boot kick it out the window. This one is just too expensive.
:puke:
:kick:

[kokomo]

12. it would be nice if Florida no longer matters......

let Jeb steal their votes again, and have some other states make up the difference to put Kerry over.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. Here's my doomsday scenario which we must avoid

We win Florida, but lose both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

It's this map, but with FLorida for Kerry.



Bush wins 278 to 260.