Carville & Greenberg's analysis of where the race for president stands

[WI_DEM]

Snip:
One week before the first presidential debate, the race has narrowed to a very competitive 2 points, 45 percent for John Kerry and 47 percent for George Bush. Frankly, that is where the race has stood for most of the year, with the exception of the spring when the race was tied and after teh two conventions. For an incumbent president, 47 percent is barely at the edge of electability and represents Bush's performance of four years earlier. Indeed, if this election were really held tomorrow, the country would be at risk from a repetition of the 2000 events. While Kerry has lost ground on some indicators since August, there is every reason to beleive that he can make gains, as the country looks for changes in our foreign and economic policies...

In the battleground sttes the current state of the race now matches wehre it stands nationally. Over the course of the year Kerry consistently performed marginally better in these states than he did nationally, but since the Republican convention Bush's narrow lead here has mirrored his advantage overall.

***Even with no change in the candidates' relative standing, it is worth highlighting the party leanings of the undecided and Nader supportes. Looking at this and our prior September poll, both groups lean strongly Democratic or for Kerry by 2-1, suggesting possible later gains nearer to election day...

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/State_of_the_Race2.pdf