Oh thank God!! That damn Bush Bounce is finally over!

[Bucky]

I thought his post convention bounce would fuckin' NEVER end!!

Electoral-Vote.com finally confirms that Kerry is back in the EC lead with 269 to 253. Not sure that will last, of course. But it's still a pretty hopeful sign. And, dude, check out Florida!

[The Chronicler]

1. Nice map. We need to hit IA, WV, OH, FL, CO, PA, WI hard.

[Carla in Ca]

9. I hear Wa. state now Kerry's and Michigan.

Drums beating in AZ, too.
It is starting. Get ready.

[Worst Username Ever]

2. TRUTHISALL is giving him 95% win probablility

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Bucky]

5. Truth's mathmatical modeling is a bit suspect, I'm afraid

He makes a lot of unscientific assumptions about what the poll numbers show and about how comparable different polls are to each other. For instance, what he's actually giving a probability for is not a Kerry win, but a probability that Kerry is more popular than Bush today, six weeks away from the election, as is reflected in the inconsistant and differently gathered poll data that he chooses to look at.

This is cautiously good news, but TruthIsAll tends to overcrunch the numbers. I expect as much from Republican budgetwreckers. It's sad when one of us tries to sink the level of a Republican.

[linazelle]

12. I beg to differ

TIA's analyses have included projections that include the anticipated turnout. Additionally, the reason most polls have ever favored * at all is that they have not taken those projections into account and when they have--they have downgraded the Dem vs. Republican turnout to project a * advantage (Gallup Poll).

[Clinton Crusader]

3. still too much damn red...

:mad: :mad:
:kick:

[Cha]

7. So much red!

Got to get rid of that color!

[Carla in Ca]

10. Wouldn't it be nice if there was some way

we could associate the red to the blood of Iraq on his hands?
Any ideas?

[Cha]

16. It is bush's color all right...even before Iraq..

with his record in Texas.

We need to change that blood to Blue (Skies)!

[noamnety]

22. we're above that

The guilt of Iraqi blood is not on someone's hands because they live in the South, that's an awful association, and is divisive without having any purpose behind it.

[Carla in Ca]

23. Sorry, you're right.

I guess the clips from the repug convention are still in my head. I was trying to be like them! I didn't mean it...I'm ok now...thanks.

[HEIL PRESIDENT GOD]

34. It is on their hands

If they voted for Bush in the South.

[yardwork]

24. Somebody posted a map that showed the state sizes proportional

to their electoral college votes. It shrinks those huge western states to small areas. It's a more realistic map. Anyone have a link.

Anyway, neither Ohio nor North Carolina is a hard red, despite what random polls might be saying. Both those states are in play, as are West Virginia, Virginia, Iowa, and others.

[dogtag]

32. Here's the map you requested.

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

[iwantmycountryback]

4. Very good map

Of course you can add Maryland's 10 EV's to Kerry's total because that SUSA poll is total bullshit. You can also add New Mexico's 5 EV's because there have been a couple polls showing Kerry with a 10 point lead there, so I don't think it changed by 15 all of a sudden. I'm also quite confident we will get Iowa's 7. And Ohio is not solid red. It's not solid any color.

[Cha]

6. I'm surprised about New Mexico with

Gov Bill Richardson and all. I know they like him..

[PROGRESSIVE1]

14. That is wrong. Zogby give Kerry 10 points.

[Cha]

17. GReat! Thanks!

:D

[dogtag]

8. Another map to bookmark:

http://www.race2004.net/

[mdguss]

11. Maryland a battleground state?

I'd like to know who did the poll that found Maryland tied. That's BS--Bush pulled out of here long ago. It'll go to Kerry. SurveyUSA, the people who did it, must be incompetent.

[Nicholas_J]

15. SUSA

did the polls for a client, a local affilate of a major network.

As has been noted by Zogby, Rasmussen, and Media Matters, the polls done by and for the media in any form have been shown to be using methodology that favors Republicans by polling more of them.

For the time being, I am only relying on polls like Zogby, or ARG, and any poll done by an independent pollster who is not doing it for any client conntecte to a major business interest or any organization with a political leaning.

[Cha]

19. What kind of polling is that to get an accurate account?...

"mostly repubs"..they really do live in a dream world, don't they?

[Nicholas_J]

20. Where you dont poll

5 - 20 percent more Republican than Democrats.

Zogby's site has an article in which he points out an analysis of the Gallop polls and other polls that have shown Bush with large leads over Kerry and then showed what the actual polls would look like if you adjusted the polls for the differnces in the number of polled Democrats and Republicans and once the adjustments are made, Bush's leads disappear.

In the gallop report, they polled 38 per ent Republicans, but only 31 percent Democrats, and the rest Independents, and given that 90 percent of Republicans state that they are going to vote for Bush, polling this way would result in a poll where more people state they are going to vote for Bush than Kerry.

[yardwork]

25. The Republicans are trying to influence the election with fake polls

that show Bush ahead. Psychologically, a lot of people like to back a winner. The theory is that if enough polls show Bush ahead, people will vote for him for that reason alone.

It's not going to work. All it does is fire up the Democrats.

[Cha]

30. They're like killer mosquitoes with their

Nasty Tricks..they're Everywhere!

[baltodemvet]

28. Can't believe that

Makes me a bit nervous though, since I've been focusing my effort in PA, assuming that MD was a lock.

[polmaven]

29. OK, I'm confused...

From the site you posted:

If the election were held today we project:
Kerry wins the presidency with 270 electoral votes. Bush places second with 268 electoral votes.

<snip>

If Colorado ballot initiative #36 passes, Kerry gains 4 electoral votes. This will tip the presidential election to Bush. The legality of the initiative (and winner of the election) will almost certainly be decided by the United States Supreme Court.

If "today's" map shows Kerry with 270 EV, how does adding 4 from CO, if the initiative passes, throw the vote to Bush? I understand the point that the legality will be decided by SCOTUS, but this map already has CO's 9 votes already going to Bush. How does taking 4 away from him and giving them to Kerry NOT leave Kerry with 274 and Bush with 264?

I'm sure I am missing it...It is late and I'm a little tired, but....Huh???

[Nicholas_J]

13. Zogby and ARG

Both have Kerry leading in the Electora Vote count with Zogby giving Kerry 296 EV and ARG giving Kerry 270 EV, both both winning levels.

[fujiyama]

18. They have MD

tied, which one poll may have said, but Kerry will win it. Assuming that Kerry wins with 279 (MD=10EVs).

Kerry has a strong chance in winning this thing.

[DaveinMD]

21. New Jersey

will also go Dem. Kerry's lead is larger than it may appear.

[I Lean Left]

26. Do Guam or Puerto Rico get any electoral votes??

n/t

[mconvente]

27. Nope

They don't have electoral votes for the presidential election.

[MockSwede]

31. Protectorates

Territories and protectorates and DC don't get EC votes; not one of 50 states.

[Clinton Crusader]

33. TODAY (9/23) Kerry 253 - * 273 GOOD READ

http://www.electoral-vote.com

So what is the result of all 50 states having recent polls? Today's score is Kerry 255, Bush 273, a small lead for Bush and just barely above the 270 votes in the electoral college. But with a dozen states in the tossup category, the race is still a tie.

But wait, there are two polls on the spreadsheet that are virtually certain to be badly wrong. Maryland is an exact tie now. But if you look at the graph for Maryland, it is clear that Maryland has been strongly for Kerry for months and Democratic for years. Bush has no more chance in Maryland than Kerry does in Alabama. So if we assign Maryland to Kerry, the score is then Kerry 265, Bush 273. Seems like a clear, if small, Bush victory, no?

Well, not so clear. Consider Colorado. A small and relatively unknown polling firm, Ciruli, has announced that Bush is ahead in Colorado by an implausible 55% to 39%, a 14% lead. There have been six polls since Aug 16 in Colorado, every single one of them had the race either exactly tied or one of the candidates was ahead by 1%. Even the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies had Bush only 1% ahead as recently as Sept 13. Assuming the folks at Ciruli just made up some numbers, and Bush is ahead by 1%, everything depends on the Colorado referendum to split the electoral vote proportionally to the popular vote.

Fortunately, a poll has just come out on the referendum and currently it looks like it might just pass. If Bush is 1% ahead in Colorado, he would get 5 votes in the electoral college and Kerry would get 4, changing the score to Kerry 269, Bush 269. If West Virginia Bush elector Richie Robb votes for a Republican other than Bush, as he has threatened, then the score becomes Kerry 269, Bush 268. In both cases the election is decided by the new House with each state getting one vote. In all scenarios, the Republicans will control the majority of delegations in the new House, so the House will elect Bush. Depending on who controls the Senate, Cheney or Edwards becomes vice president. Could go either way. If the Democrats hang onto the Louisiana Senate seat, as they have for over 100 years. there is a good chance the Senate will be split 50-50. In that case, Cheney gets to cast the deciding vote.

But wait, suppose Kerry picks up 1% in Colorado and he gets 5 of Colorado's votes in the electoral college and Bush gets 4. Then the score becomes Kerry 270, Bush 268 and Kerry becomes president. Unless the Republicans go to the Supreme Court and ask the Court to invalidate the Colorado referendum. If the court upholds the referendum, Kerry wins; if the court invalidates it, Bush wins. Thus if the vote on election day reflects today's map except Kerry wins Maryland easily and squeaks through in Colorado, the Supreme Court gets to decide another election. It could happen.

I have not changed the spreadsheet to reflect a possible split in Colorado because it is a bit early to say the referendum will pass. Also I have not split Nebraska because Bush will surely carry all the congressional districts and I have not split Maine because Kerry will certainly carry the southern one and probably the northern one as well. As time goes on, these decisions will be reevaluated. In any case, we have a real horse race again. The debates will probably be crucial. For once, a discussion of the issues may decide the election instead of all the mud we have had so far.


:kick:

[PermanentRevolution]

36. Plus...

He didn't mention the Wisconsin poll, which is another obviously flawed response. It went from Zogby showing Barely Kerry on a poll from the 17th to some group called "Badger Poll" showing a 14-point lead for Bush on the 21st? No way in hell the numbers change that fast.

[Ishoutandscream]

35. C'mon Pennsylvania!!! We know you are totally blue!!!

It can't be that close!