Are young people being polled?

[CatWoman]

I was listening to a black talk radio station the other day, and this young lady (who I was extemely proud of and impressed with) was arguing with a republican (guy who owns his own business) about the election, and reasons young people are going to vote for Kerry.

She ran down a number of reasons (jobs, help with tuition, war in Iraq, etc.), and topped it off with the fact that it will be the young people who will decide this election, and they are going for Kerry 2-1.

[gospelized]

1. no they aren't

polls samples likely voters. that means people who have voted before.

it doesn't include the 65% of youth who have registered since the last election.

[dbt]

2. Probably not.

Y'gotta FIND 'em before you can call 'em to poll 'em--and don't the Young ALL have cell phones these days (in addition to secret alien technology that we know nothing of)?

:hi:
dbt

[CatWoman]

3. heh

:hi:

I need to get one of them over here to show me how to work my microwave :D

[merbex]

4. 18-30 rarely if ever polled

simply because they have historically not voted

If you ever get into an arguement with a repug about polls 10 to 1 they are aware of this and scared sh**less about anecdotal evidence which suggests millions of new voters in precisely this age group

[billbuckhead]

10. I'm 48 years old and only use a cellphone

I decided that I would budget my money to have cable internet and do away with a rarely used landline phone. Many young people do this and only have a cellphone.

I was polled at work several days ago.

[TomClash]

5. I know one thing . . .

. . . blacks are probably not being polled in proportion to their voting numbers in 2000.

[CatWoman]

11. I'm black, and I signed up to take the on-line Zogby polls

however, I've never been polled via telephone.

[ShaneGR]

6. Generally no, especially if they've registered in the last 2-4 years

If they've registered recently, but haven't voted, they most likely are not being polled. Almost 99% of the polls we see are amongst LV's (Likely voters, meaning they voted in 2000) and not any of the estimated 5-10 million new registrants.

Keep your chin up, we cool.

BTW: Great site on polling here: www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

[CatWoman]

9. WHAT is with you and Rick Flair????

:hi:

[Christof]

7. I have never been polled yet.

I'm a 22 year old college student, and I haven't been polled at all.

[A_Possum]

8. It always astonishes me to hear...

that young people don't vote. Man, I was there at the polls as soon as I was old enough to get a chance. And until this election I was never very politically motivated. It just seemed like what I was supposed to do as an American.

[LittleClarkie]

24. I voted vaguely Democrat

Because our family always has been Dem. Somewhat moderate to conservative, but still Dem. Kennedy Dems, I suppose. Rather like Goldwater Repubs.

The party may shift away from us now and again, but we're still Dems.

I actually see Kerry as being more moderate than liberal. I don't think he's near as liberal as he's painted. Not that liberal is bad, mind. But the Right is using it as a bludgeoning stick.

This year is the first time I ever set foot in a campaign HQ for more than a day.

This is the first time I ever REALLY looked at the issues.

The first time I've ever donated money, or supplies, to the Democratic party.

After about 6 elections, this is my first REAL election.

[fishnfla]

12. They only poll household phones right?

There are quite a few people who just rely on cell phones anymore from what I understand

[AmerDem]

13. NO....and

As I have heard over and over again, the main fraud of these polls are the NEWLY Registered Voters that will be voting this election. Every one of these polling places say the same thing, they aren't sure how to get an accurate read on this demographic, so in fact they are IGNORED.


These polls are partisan scam for the white house! Something I often think about though, I think the white house will try to use these false numbers to help shore up the the results of the bogus electronic voting once this election is finished.

[shockingelk]

21. MN, WI, NH

and four other states allow registration the day of the election. And at least in MN, at the polling place ...

[Chili]

14. if young people are fired up,

...and going 2-1 for Kerry, the Republicans are in deep trouble. They are much less likely to get discouraged because of media bias or lop-sided polls than we are. They have a die-hard won't-give-up spirit that's sorely needed by us old folks sometimes.

And LOL at secret alien technology. I've yet to figure out just what an iPod is...!

[CatWoman]

15. Remember -- lots of rappers are registering these guys to vote

P. Diddy mostly comes to mind.

[sonicx]

23. Russell Simmons too. he's getting tons of new voters. nt

[sangh0]

16. Yes, they are

but those polls are rarely reported on as they can be inaccurate. the polls you hear about are usually ones that poll "likely voters"

[CatWoman]

17. you haven't made me cackle in a while!!!

what gives???

:hi:

[Hamlette]

18. likely voters and young voters

I've read that pollsters ask you 7 questions that go to whether you are a likely voter. Of them they ask did you vote in the last congressional election, did you vote in the last presidential election etc. Then they rank you according to how likely it is you will vote.

Next they determine how many people are going to vote this year (based on prior year statistics I assume, don't remember for sure). Then, say they determine 53% of the electorate will vote, they take the people who scored in the top 53% in the likely to vote category and only count those votes in the "likely to vote" poll. Some polls don't even take into consideration percentage from each party, some do. Unless you see that data you don't know squat about the poll.

Short answer? Someone in the 18-21 age range is not likely going to score high enough to be counted even when they are polled.

[DaveinMD]

19. young people

are polled in proportion to how the group has voted in previous elections. A large than expected youth vote could add about 2 points to Kerry in the polls if it materializes as it did for Clinton in 92.

[Lefty48197]

20. They'll be polled in November

All indications are that young voters have taken more interest in this election, than in any elections in recent history. The newly active voters are coming down in the Kerry camp.
The polls are taken of registered, and likely voters.
Recently registered voters won't appear on the pollsters lists of registered voters, and they definately won't appear on the lists of 'likely voters', althought many of them have every intention of being at the polls...

[CitySky]

22. Amen to all of the above

New voters are NOT getting counted, and they WILL help us decide the future of this country.

Now go register one!

Better yet, take a stack of voter reg forms with you to a concert, club, or other event likely to attract those 18-25s. Us "older" folks can invest in a discreet pair of earplugs, if we have to, for the cause... :D

-Peace!

[Arkana]

25. of course they're not

We wouldn't want that nasty little thing called 'truth' to get out, would we?