Harris Poll shows Kerry in front

[Zorbet55]

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB109526872487418642,00.html?mod=todays%5Ffree%

I do not know how to link but if you visit the Wall Street Journal online site you will find the latest Harris Poll data, which shows the Bush bounce is now completely gone. As of 9/16/2004. The Harris Poll was the most accurate during the 2000 election.

[dennis4868]

1. THANKS

:bounce:

[Arugula Latte]

2. Right on, baby!

Thanks for the boost!

[Arugula Latte]

3. Oh, and BTW

Welcome to DU! :hi: :toast:

[Zorbet55]

12. Thank you very much

I think we all sensed a better outlook was forthcoming. Rasmussen polling has never shown much variance through the conventions and some of the Time and Newsweek polls seemed outlandish, as they likely were.

We are back in front and need to keep the heat on. I read earlier that undecided voters were selecting Kerry over Bush by some 8%.:toast:

[Norquist Nemesis]

4. A "slender" 51% to 45%???????

"The poll also found that a slender 51% to 45% majority doesn't believe that Mr. Bush deserves to be re-elected."

If those figures were 51-45 Bush they'ld be singing a completely different tune how Bush is SLAMMING Kerry! :mad: :mad: :mad:

[Norquist Nemesis]

6. BTW ...

Welcome to DU! :hi:

Would love to hear some of your ghost stories sometime. :)

[Zorbet55]

16. Great news, lib

I forgot about that ghost story profile. Yeah, I am always ready to share the spirits with you. Thanks.:hi:

[deutsey]

25. I also found this appalling

Slender to my unscientific mind is a couple points at most. Six is quite a divide to me.

[alittlelark]

5. OK - ANYONE....who knows more than one idiot voting for Nader??

I knew 5 in the last election....NONE will vote for him now. NO ONE I know will vote for him. None of my friends or relatives know someone who will vote for him.


What is with these BS NADER #'s!!!!!
They are a big stinking crock of SH*T!!!!

.... Ah, yes, all the better to cover our Black Box theft, my dear......

[Ol Sugar Coat]

20. Nader will unfortunately get votes

Sadly, there will always be those misguided souls who believe in giving their one and only vote to a doomed candidate as some sort of "protest". It's warped logic ... nonetheless these Nader folks pose a danger to those of us looking for REAL CHANGE this time. If Nader blows this for us, we ought to organize some sort of incredible backlash against him. He would be worthy of serious and lasting scorn.

[trogdor]

29. It is, of course, his or her right to do this.

I'd try my best to get the person to see reason, but if one still insists on deliberately throwing one's vote away like that to make a 'statement', that's his or her right. Saying otherwise cheapens the democracy we're trying so hard to preserve.

[wryter2000]

34. Welcome to DU

I hope this isn't so late you don't see it.

[Ol Sugar Coat]

46. Thank you

I appreciate the welcome. Great group of people here. As for people's right to "throw away" their vote, aka "registering a protest vote," well sure. I know it's their right. But people willfully choosing to waste their power on a doomed progressive candidate, when they have a chance instead to help move the country even just a tiny bit in a more progressive direction and away from the failed policies of the extreme right - well, it seems incredibly disdainful of the real hurt being done to people's lives under the Bush administration.

[okieinpain]

30. I found this interesting

"Methodology: This poll was conducted by telephone within the U. S. between Sept. 9 and 13, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results have a statistical precision of +/-3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy."

is this why the other polls that are using more repugs, then dems are coming up with these 8 - 12 point leads for bush.

[quaoar]

7. Fuckin' A!!!!

Woo hoo.



Methodology: This poll was conducted by telephone within the U. S. between Sept. 9 and 13, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results have a statistical precision of +/-3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy.

[Guaranteed]

8. We need to send this poll to as many media outlets as we can

to at least give the few media folks who are on our side some kind of ammunition.

Send it to everyone...use the media blaster.

[whistle]

9. This article let's me retire for the night....

...Thanks and good night everyone. Sweet dreams and may your dreams be of a Kerry/Edwards landside victory on November 2, 2004. If you can dream it, you can do it!

[Only Me]

10. YEAH!!! Thank you for posting this info, we always need good news! nt

[Chili]

11. thank y ou!

I think we all needed that!

[Ironpost]

19. I know I dam sure needed it.

Good Morning America

[mcmurphysindian]

13. This might be good also... americanresearchgroup.com... tomorrow

[quaoar]

17. Welcome to DU, McMurphy

[jsw_81]

14. Terrific

This is what we've been waiting for these past few weeks. It would seem that the Nader voters are finally coming home!

[opihimoimoi]

15. ALOHA KICK

:kick:

[Awsi Dooger]

18. First meaningful national poll is two weeks after final convention

I tried to emphasize that here many times. Thursday is two weeks post the Republican convention.

Since state polls lag national polls by nearly a week, the first significant state numbers will come early next week.

[featherman]

32. Amen, Awsie

Keep calm, folks. There's about a 100 Ev's in play right now that will go back and forth on Electoral College projections depending on who has the lead in the popular vote

[cthrumatrix]

35. good point

[ruggerson]

21. Send This Poll To Every Cable News Anchor

kick

[OKNancy]

22. Snip from the article

Bush's Convention Bounce
Vanishes as Race Tightens

A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP
September 16, 2004

Sen. John Kerry and President Bush are now enjoying almost equal levels of support, according to the latest Harris Interactive poll.

Immediately after the Republican convention in New York, several polls showed Mr. Bush jumping ahead of Mr. Kerry with a clear lead of between six and 11 percentage points. There's no such 'convention bounce' for the president in the latest poll by Harris.

The Harris poll, conducted by telephone Sept. 9-13, shows Sen. Kerry leading Mr. Bush 48% to 47% among likely voters nationwide. The poll also found that a slender 51% to 45% majority doesn't believe that Mr. Bush deserves to be re-elected.

The previous poll in which likely U.S. voters were asked which candidate they preferred showed Messrs. Kerry and Bush tied 47% to 47%. That survey was conducted before the Republican National Convention in New York City, which ended earlier this month. An earlier poll in June indicated a Bush lead over Mr. Kerry of 10 percentage points, at 51% to 41%.

[cthrumatrix]

26. the true test is...will the MEDIA start reporting this on CNN/Fox...?

I don't have high hopes...they smeared Kerry and his campaign all week and thought he should give up.

[Crankie Avalon]

23. Kerry 48 Bush 47

WHAT THE...!!!!

(Fiddles with intercom machine on desk)

KAAARRRRRLLLLL!!! Uncle Dick...Condi...Rummy...SOMEBODY!!! Call Ridge and tell 'im we need another orange alert--toot suite and jurisprudendunce!!!

[wryter2000]

36. LOL

Welcome to DU, Mr. Resident. I hope we get to hear more of your wit and wisdom before we boot you out of office.

Seriously, welcome to DU :hi: How'd you get that moniker?

[Crankie Avalon]

43. Oh, I've been around DU...

...several weeks, now. I just don't post all that often.

As fer how I got this here monicker--I was born into it when I, the fruit o' Poppy's loins, was excreted out onto the world by ol' Bar, herself, pardner!!!

If you really want more o' my wit and wisdomism, you can check out either my intro thread that made the DU front page: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2066920 or else the photo essay I put up of some o' my recent activities: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2257216

Take care, and thanks for the welcome. Y'all come back, now!!!

Ummm, or else I'll come back, now...whichever one makes the mostest sense in this here situation.

[deutsey]

24. This is great news

What's the track record of Harris? I've grown to trust Zogby and Rassmussen to a certain extent. I don't have much knowledge of Harris (I don't follow the polls the way I have been this election).

What's Harris' overall reputation?

[urizenxvii]

37. Harris

does good math. Polling statistics are really fuzzy, and VERY hard to do 100% accurately. The sample sizes have to be very small for these polls to be done with any sort of cost-effectiveness, which drastically reduces the confidence level and accuracy. Most stats we see on the news disregard the +/- levels, and we rarely see a %confidence noted. But Harris is pretty well trusted to be independent, I think.

[Zorbet55]

39. Best pick of 2000 election

While others forecast a Bush lead of 4-6 points 5 days out, Harris reflected a virtual deadlock. While other polls showed the gap closing on election eve, the average poll showed Bush with a 2 point lead. Ironically, Harris showed a Gore with an electoral vote edge on election eve with the popular vote in doubt. Of course, none of the polls could have forecast the Florida debacle. It was not so much the undervote as the overvote, where ballots were double-punched and disqualified. Voters did not vote twice on their ballot, as you well know. But thousands of ballots were found to be double-punched during the recount. The overvote estimate reflects that Gore likely won Florida by some 50000 votes if not more.

[deutsey]

40. Thanks to both responses here

This helps me in determining which polls to take seriously.

[pleiku52cab]

27. tonights news

should be really interesting to see how the different
telecasts present this new poll (or if they even discuss it at
all)

[FatSlob]

28. That's pretty darn cool.

Thanks for the info.

[Teaser]

31. Kick for the nervous nellies

They need some tonic.

[maine_raptor]

33. Negative..........This is Anti Kool-Aid Serum

Things are looking up, but keep you're eyes peeled, still got 48 days to go.

[lancdem]

38. And I just saw the newest poll from Democracy Corps

has Bush up 1. He was up 3 less than a week ago, so he dropped a couple of points.

[lancdem]

41. This poll is now on the front page of yahoo

What a nice change to see that instead of "Bush opens double-digit lead on Kerry."

[DrFunkenstein]

42. I'm Sure Judy Woodruff Will Talk Incessantly About This Poll

Such a nice woman.

[ItsMyParty]

44. Kick for those who just got depressed over the other news of

NJ, IL, MI......My head's exploding.

[obiwan]

45. As They Say, "The Truth Will Out"

[obiwan]

47. Check out today's Gallup polls...

... and tell me somebody is not being bought off by the RNC/ Bushies.