Kerry is down 2 points in the polls. But on Oct.1...

[TruthIsAll]

the day after the first debate, he will turn this race upside down.
By then Bush will be fully exposed for the coward he is.

These are the votes; these are the Glengarry votes.
But Bush won't get them.

They're for closers.

http://geocities.com/electionmodel/

[still_one]

1. It will be before the debates

[salinen]

2. ABC

Anybody but Chimp

[Norquist Nemesis]

3. Don't pay attention to the polls.

There is a big segment that is not being included...newly registered voters.

The key for us is turnout.

But I'm with ya on the debates. :)

[Zero Gravitas]

5. Yes

Turnout is key. The bigger the turnout the better Kerry's chances are.

[Clinton Crusader]

11. Exactly what liburl says

:thumbsup:
:kick:

[oasis]

4. I love Kerry's chances of winning BIG.

[David Dunham]

6. Kerry Leads in the New Harris Poll

Bush's Convention Bounce
Vanishes as Race Tightens

A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP
September 16, 2004

Sen. John Kerry and President Bush are now enjoying almost equal levels of support, according to the latest Harris Interactive poll.

Immediately after the Republican convention in New York, several polls showed Mr. Bush jumping ahead of Mr. Kerry with a clear lead of between six and 11 percentage points. There's no such 'convention bounce' for the president in the latest poll by Harris.

The Harris poll, conducted by telephone Sept. 9-13, shows Sen. Kerry leading Mr. Bush 48% to 47% among likely voters nationwide. The poll also found that a slender 51% to 45% majority doesn't believe that Mr. Bush deserves to be re-elected.

The previous poll in which likely U.S. voters were asked which candidate they preferred showed Messrs. Kerry and Bush tied 47% to 47%. That survey was conducted before the Republican National Convention in New York City, which ended earlier this month. An earlier poll in June indicated a Bush lead over Mr. Kerry of 10 percentage points, at 51% to 41%.

The latest poll was conducted within the U. S. among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults. It has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.

The results echo a recent poll sponsored by Investor's Business Daily, which also showed that the gap between the U.S. presidential candidates has disappeared. The poll of likely voters showed the two candidates tied at 47% in a two-man race and tied at 46% if independent candidate Ralph Nader is included.

[TruthIsAll]

7. kick for TRUTH

tia

[Nicholas_J]

8. He's down?

The three latest polls have Kerry up in one poll by one point over Bush, equal with Bush in another, and below Bush by one point in another, all well within the margin of errors, making the race a dea heat again. On Charlie Rose tonight they noted that in a new Strategic Visions poll (Republican Pollster) Kerry is now ahead one point.

[TruthIsAll]

9. You are right, he is turning it around, but he is still down.

Let's wait until the State polls reflect the national before we say he's ahead. Give it two weeks.

[Hamlette]

10. talking to a pollster today

if Bush is up 5 points or LESS by October 15, Kerry wins.

[partygirl]

12. It is neck and neck

by the debate it will be very tight, with Kerry up a little I think. After the debate we will be well ahead and solidify that lead with each debate (assuming there are 3 which there may not be). I see up winning by 8 points or more and that is fine with me.

[DaveinMD]

13. actually

Kerry is ahead in two, tied in one, and behind in the major outlier. REgardless, right now its a dead heat race.