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The Rs, as almost everyone knows, are blocking health care for political reasons, thinking that if Obama fails to pass reform as did Clinton, they will storm back into power as in 1994.
60 Dem votes in the senate has never meant 60 votes for the most liberal of reforms, unfortunately. What it does mean is that reform has a chance to actually pass. A Dem, no matter how conservative, is NOT motivated by trying to get the Rs to sweep back into power in 2010. That means they are at least persuadable to vote for cloture.
If we had even 59 votes to block a filibuster, then Reid would be FORCED to kowtow to Olympia Snowe. He would have three options, (1) pass a bill without a public option, which would force the conference report to not have the public option, lest IT be filibustered, (2) put whatever triggers or whatnot in the bill with the PO to get Snowe to vote for cloture, or (3) allow a bill with a PO to be killed by R filibuster.
Obama would have a similar difficult choice, (1) sign a bill without a PO but that has needed insurance practices reforms, such as banning rescission, (2) veto the bill because it doesn't have a PO (or because the PO is saddled by triggers and whatnot) and lose the needed insurance reforms, (3) sign the bill even with the triggers and whatnot.
This is why having as big a Dem caucus as possible matters, even if some of the members are frankly unrecognizable as Dems.
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