My thoughts on polls - why they aren't going to work this election

[doni_georgia]

Looking at all the recent polls is enough to give a person a migraine. All the talking heads are pondering how the polls could show such discrepancies. I have a couple of thoughts.

First, pollsters do not call cell phones. I teach in an inner-city school. Most of my student's families' do not have land lines. All they have are cell phones. This is growing more and more common. Who are most likely only to have cell phones? People who are struggling financially. These same people are also more likely to vote Democratic. Also, I'm not sure about pollsters and the no-call list. Can polling companies call people on the no-call list? I haven't received any polling calls this election cycle, and I usually do receive several during the course of an election year. Wonder if my being on the no-call list has deleted me from the pollsters' call logs?

Also, look at how divided America is. Can polls of randomly called people accurately reflect a nation that is so divided?

We have to look at the real issue. We do not have national elections. We have 51 state and district elections. Each one of them has to be looked at individually. Any poll that polls voters nationally cannot give an accurate picture of what will happen on election day. The only polls that can even get close to an accurate picture are state polls. Even then, we have the problems mentioned above. In addition, do these pollsters take into account population, voter turnout history in a given area, etc? For instance, does someone doing polling in GA pick the right percentages of inner city v. rural voters? Do they look at specific areas for past voter turnout and choose lower numbers to poll in areas that are traditionally low turnout areas? A pollster that randomly chooses 1500 Georgia residents could get very diverse results depending on where those numbers come from. It's the same way all over.

The only real danger I see from these polls is that some may think their state is out of reach for Kerry and decide to either stay at home or vote Nader. That's the real danger. We need to get the word out that the day of being able to rely on polls is over.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Arguments to go vote

If you meet anyone who says that they are staying home "because the polls say my state is going Repuke",tell them how polls are rigged. Then remind them that it is important to vote to let folks know how you feel-also bring in local elections and their importance.

That is, if they are voting Democrat.

If they are Repukes, but don't always agree with Bush, tell them that this year is the perfect time to send a message to Bush by voting third party.

[agingdem]

3. Listen...

I live in Republican Texas (no wasting money on Kerry ads here!) but I can't wait for early voting so I can cast my vote for Kerry. And Nader has been so vilified that very few people are going to throw away their vote.

[Township75]

2. I think the biggest weakness of the polls...

is the outdated prediction for turnout. They failed at this in 2k, and I am sure they are not predicting such a strong turnout again.

[21winner]

4. You are right.

Cell phones, answering machines,caller id, voice mail, and "I hate poll callers wasting my time".

The poll industry admits this. As they wonder, their product is still bought.