KY-Sen: Mongiardo Leads Conway, Grayson Leads All

[ccharles000]

SurveyUSA (dates unknown, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jack Conway (D): 31
Dan Mongiardo (D): 39
Lillie E. Miller Johnson: 4
Darlene Fitzgerald Price: 3
Maurice Marion Sweeney: 1
Other: 9
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.9%)

This is the first poll we've seen of the Senate primary since the ridiculous Fancy Farm "controversy" that gave Conway a surprisingly stretched-out period of bad press. At the very least for Conway, at least this isn't as deep a hole to climb out of than the one he appeared to be in based on a Mongiardo internal poll from May. In that poll, Mongiardo held a 43-28 lead over Conway.

The Republican primary:

Trey Grayson (R): 37
Rand Paul (R): 26
Roger Thoney (R): 5
Bill Johnson (R): 2
Brian Oerther (R): 0
Other: 13
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.4%)

That's one hell of a strong showing for Rand Paul -- no doubt Paulbots all across the nation are short-circuiting in utter glee at how close he is at the beginning of this campaign.

And, finally, the general election numbers:

Dan Mongiardo (D): 40
Trey Grayson (R): 46
Undecided: 16

Jack Conway (D): 37
Trey Grayson (R): 44
Undecided: 18

Jack Conway (D): 43
Rand Paul (R): 38
Undecided: 19

Dan Mongiardo (D): 43
Rand Paul (R): 41
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±2.3%)

Grayson's lead is not surprising. Mongiardo and Conway are beating each other up with brass knuckles at this point (with the most egregious attacks coming from that jerkface Mongiardo), while the GOP primary is far less contentious. With Rand Paul performing this well, though, perhaps things may get a bit testier in the future.

Crosstabs and more details for this poll are not yet available on SUSA's site, but we'll update this post with more details when they become available.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5438/kysen-mongiardo-leads-conway-grayson-leads-all