Zogby Battleground Poll: Kerry Leads Electoral College 297-241

[Nicholas_J]

Zogby Battleground Poll: Kerry Leads Electoral College 297-241
Someone phone John Kerry. According to John Zogby, Kerry is winning the Electoral College handily 297-241. There is no bad news in this “poll” for John Kerry, he leads everywhere. He’s ahead in these crucial states according to Zogby, Florida, Iowa, Arkansas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Oregon and Wisconsin. In fact, I highly recommend that all of the democrats that see other polling data showing Kerry losing ground in many states, only look at this "poll." According to Zogby, Kerry has even taken back control of the race.

Don’t believe your lying eyes, just read this.

Still, there are signs that Mr. Kerry is gaining back some of the strength that was sapped during the Republican convention. In the latest poll, Mr. Kerry gained ground on the president in nine states, while Mr. Bush improved his standing in six. In one state, Wisconsin, there was no change in the margin between the candidates.

Mr. Bush lost some ground in the crucial Ohio race; his lead there had been greater than the margin of error in the prior two polls. This time, Mr. Bush was ahead by 3.3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error. Mr. Kerry's position improved a bit in Pennsylvania. That state, which had been solidly in his column before the Republican convention, gave the senator a 3.1 point lead, up from 2.8 points.

These results are here and are from “Zogby Interactive” which conducts "polling" through an online registration and e-mail process where the participants actually submit their polling information where it is “spot-checked to help prevent fraud.”

http://www.washingtondispatch.com/page2/archives/000591.html

Earlier today I posted polling data indicating that Kerry was rapidly catching up to Bush in Electoral votes. Well he seems to have gotten ahead of me in todays Zogby interactive.


I guess the new campaign strategy is having an effect.

[boxster]

1. If Kerry keeps doing stuff like the NYU speech, things will continue

to swing our way.

PA is going to be huge. If Kerry could win both PA & OH, it's going to be very, very difficult for Bush to pull enough electoral votes elsewhere to win.

[Nicholas_J]

2. Accodring to todays Zogby

Kerry has just pushed Bush out of the lead in both states, and is ahead in Florida as well.

[Kahuna]

18. Florida too????

:bounce:

[Nicholas_J]

22. Yup

Kerry is a tiny bit ahead of Bush in Florida.

[Pab Sungenis]

34. We won't win Florida.

Even if we do get more votes, we will be Jebbed to death.

We will never collect Florida's electoral votes.

[TruthIsAll]

25. I had ZOGBY in my model and posted last night: 280EV's

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x848575

[DU9598]

6. PA & OH

If Kerry wins those two states early in the evening I am going to bed early to get a good nights sleep for the first time in years. I will download Bush's concession speech the next morning to play over and over and over again for years to come.

[Guaranteed]

11. FUCKING BEAUTIFUL POST.

My GOD, you just set my imagination off. Made me want to cry.

[Demi_Babe]

12. LOL...loved your post

:-)

[Career Prole]

14. I've already put in for vacation on 11/3.

I'm going to watch all night...tune to Faux for a minute to watch them froth...stand outside freeperrepublic for a bit and listen to the heads explode...it's gonna be sweet. Very sweet.
:D

[tedoll78]

17. I've already arranged this.

We're allowed three absences from our clinical rotation in school, and I arranged to have 11/3 off back in August.

I'll either be crying and hungover, or dancing and hungover. :)

[Career Prole]

28. Dancing...*not* crying!

The Force is with us! :thumbsup:

[michigandem2]

29. i took a vac day on 11-3 as well so I can stay up and

listen to the media try to explain how on EARTH Kerry could win when they told us all along he would not...just be sweet revenge..because he WILL win!

[obiwan]

51. I have been unemployed for close to 14 months...

...so for me, EVERYDAY is a holiday!

[Renew Deal]

23. I will laugh, cry, scream, and pray for the second time that week.

O8)

[BootinUp]

31. Good idea!

I - LIKE it.

[wryter2000]

40. No sleep for me.

I've already told work I'll be on vacation on 11/3. If Kerry wins OH and PA, I'm staying up for the whole glorious thing. Then, like you, I'll tape Bush's concession speech and watch it over and over and over.

Yahoooo! :bounce:

[SammyWinstonJack]

47. bush*'s concession speech

It will be the only speech of Idiot Boy's I will have ever watched in it's entirety and I will throughly enjoy each and every word of it! :bounce:

[ronnykmarshall]

46. I'm staying up all night if it looks like we win.

There is no way I could go to bed without seeing that little bastard concede.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. I hope that this is true. My family is getting worried that Kerry....

has botched up this whole thing.

[Guaranteed]

13. It's true.

Seriously- Kerry has the winning message now. It can't NOT be true.

[Kahuna]

19. I agree. Kerry has greatly improved his message and..

delivery in the past couple of weeks. I think we call pull it off.

[SoFlaJet]

4. well...

we'll soon be hearing from the republicans that the Zogby poll is Kerry biased.If they disapprove of the message they attack the messenger.I dispise their tactics..............
snip; On note I had to erase the I hate THEM part

[Nicholas_J]

8. Other polls and articles I have posted

Indicate Bush is losing a lot of support to several groups that he was either courting or had massive support from in 2000. The support of the Cuban coimmunity for Bush has slipped enough for Bush to not be able to win in Florida if it stays this low. It is beleo the 82 percent threshold that Bush absolutely must have to win Florida, and Kerry's support among Jewish voters has increased from the 59 percent he had in december to 75 percent now whil Bush has dropped a good deal among Jews in the U.S.

[LisaL]

9. I think you are already too late.

Republicans are already complaining.
Well-who cares? Let them complain.

[sonicx]

16. Zogby was one of the most accurate in 2000

and yes he's a democrat. so? he's accurate and does non-bias polls.

[wicket]

5. Thanks for the link!

:D

[UCLA Dem]

7. Chimpy has 6 more weeks.

[GeorgeBushytail]

10. YES!!!

Kerry's on the offense. I'm hoping that besides motivating the Dem base it rattles * before the debates.

[Guaranteed]

15. It's going to do more than just rattle him.

Watch how he crumbles over the coming weeks.

[XanaDUer]

20. Kick!

Kick.

[shivaji]

21. Grrreat! Does that mean Kerry does not need me to drag my

fat ass out to the polling booth on election day?

[polmaven]

39. That is just what I've been thinking.

All of the media reporting the polls showing Bush with this big lead that can't be overcome may have been GOOD for Senator Kerry! The republicans will believe Rush and Fox telling them it's all over...no need to vote folks...sit back and bask in the glory! Your job is done.

[obiwan]

52. Park your fat ass right behind mine at the polling booth...

... this is the most important presidential election in our lifetime!.

[porkrind]

24. Incredible

It's amazing that anyone who suffered through the last 4 years would not have a strong enough opinion that they could change their mind this late in the game. :wtf: I mean how bad does it need to get?

[DeepModem Mom]

26. kick

[Fed Up]

27. Cspan2 carried Dumbya's water last night: said 294 elec. votes for Chim

py.

LOL.

This is good. Thanks, Nicholas/Zogby.

(hope this post didn't come over twice.)

[BootinUp]

30. Can't wait for the next article questioning these results.

[deutsey]

32. The "new campaign strategy" is winning this skeptic over

I've said all along that I'll cast my vote for Kerry, but I've had lots of problems with him and his campaign. I'm still not happy with some things about Kerry, but lately I'm very excited by what I'm hearing from him.

Go, Kerry!

:thumbsup:

[louis c]

33. Rasmussen is showing the same trend

He has it as a dead heat.

Rasmussen has many more battleground states as toss-ups. He has it Bush 213 EV to Kerry 204 EV. However, yesterday, by going to his data, state by state, and assigning the candidates the Electoral Votes, even if the lead was a single point, I got some interesting results. Kerry 269 EV to Bush 264 EV with New Mexico (5) exactly tied. My Premium numbers are more up to date than the ones he posts below the blue box. Those are one week old. Even though he says Bush has a lead in states totaling 72 EV to Bush at 17 EV to Kerry, that does not include yesterday's flip of Pennsylvania (21) and Florida (27) into the Kerry column.

That showed me that we are right where we were before the Swiftliars ads, the DNC, and the RNC, Dead even.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[Roland99]

35. LET'S KEEP PUSHING!

Do NOT let up in your efforts to convince friends/family/acquaintances that Kerry is the best choice for a safer, stronger America!

Get Out The Vote!!

[lamster2k]

36. Alright

Yeaaaaaaaaaa-haaaaaaaaaawwwwwwww. I've been hearing BS from GOPers on other blogs about how Zogby has a liberal bias and other crap like that. I'm proud to say that I will likely get to meet John Zogby in late October. My school has offered an invitation to him to come and speak, and I believe he accepted.

Oh, and these numbers aren't a surprise at all. Just look at the right track/wrong track numbers. Those are really the most telling signs about the election.

[wryter2000]

41. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[Pallas180]

37. Which polls are phony though, yesterday I saw poll said Kerry

was more than 100 electoral votes behind Bush.

either these polls are just plain propaganda, or something is very
wrong with the poll results

[RobInRaleigh]

38. Great news but...

Let's not rest for a second! Keep doing all the hard work and donating and canvassing and letter-writing, Whatever it is you're doing!

I just signed up with my local dem party to drive voters to the Polls Nov 2. (I got tons of unused sick days...it's time I get to use what I deserve.)

Gonna go register some voters outside a busy eating place tonite. No stopping us now! :-)

[wryter2000]

42. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[Cha]

43. Pennsylvania..the little enjine that could!

Kerry is Seabiscuit!

[DanGough]

44. Great news, but "Remember Florida"

We better prepare for a slew of dirty tricks and of course Remember Florida. Vote rigging is just around the corner.

[Nicholas_J]

45. Kerry is also ahead

In Florida. And the Kerry campaign has a large number of lawyers who will be watching the voting directly going from polling location to polling location asking voters if they have been prevented from voting.

Without the ability to turn people away from the polls, They cannot do what they did in 2000. in 2000, voters who were told they couldnt vote because they were felons but actually were not felos haqd no one to take their case to. This time there will be attorneys extremely conversant with election laws available to contest the actions of people who try to prevent legitimate voters from voting.

There were no votes that were just thrown out in 2000, through various methods, the Bush people simply illegally prevented some people from voting. That will not be happening this time.

[RobInRaleigh]

48. evil tactics of the Right

You're right about nasty tricks in Florida...and others. The October issue of The Progressive has a very detailed story about the kind of things we can expect this Election Day: http://www.progressive.org/oct04/cusac1004.html

[dolstein]

49. "Winning the electoral vote handily" -- GET REAL

Sorry, but Kerry is not winning the electoral vote "handily". Kerry's electoral vote estimate includes the EVs of states where Kerry lead is well within the margin of error.

[davidinalameda]

50. I'll believe it when I see it

we all know how the Bushies are--anything can happen between now and November 2

[BamaLefty]

53. Great News

.... hey boys, we are going to win and give America back to the people, not corporate crooks such as Enron and Halliburton!

BUllSHit!