Bush's Cuban American Support May Be Slipping

[Nicholas_J]

New limits on travel and remittances to Cuba have turned some former backers against the president, surveys show.



By John M. Glionna, Times Staff Writer


CORAL GABLES, Fla. — Cuban American Jorge Mursuli is livid over how he says President Bush forced him to break a promise made at his mother's deathbed.

He vowed to her to send money and medicine to his aging aunt still living in Fidel Castro's Cuba. But Bush's new policies restricting travel and remittances to the island — a move aimed at further isolating its communist leader — have stifled that goodwill gesture.


Mursuli, who grew up in a Republican household, says Bush is playing politics with his culture's close-knit family ties, appealing to older hard-line Cuban exiles who want Castro overthrown at any cost. He says the president's choice comes at a price: Mursuli, 43, won't be voting for Bush in November.

Recent voter surveys suggest that the solid support for Bush among Cuban Americans may be slipping a bit, especially among the young...

"If the president doesn't get 82% in November, that would be very bad news for the Republicans," said Damian Fernandez, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-cubans21sep21,1,5094696.story?coll=la-home-politics

This article discusses recent polls of Cubans in Florida, and in this poll, the Support for Bush aomg Cubans is down to 70 percent, while 19 percent currently support Kerry. 11 Percent undecided. IN the 2000 campaign, Al Gore only recived 17 percent of the Cuban vote, so Kerry is already 2 point up on Cuban support in Florida.This polls however, was done by a Democratic polling organization.

However another poll conducted in August(remember Kerry's bad August) , by the William C. Velazquez Institute, a non partisan, non proti Latino think tank shows that Bush's support among Cubans is even lower than in the other poll. In this poll Bush only garners 66 percent support among Cubans.

The most recent poll, done by the New Democrat Network shows that Bush's support is strongest among Cubans who arrived before 1980.Those who arrived later, after the Mariel Boatlifts support Kerry 58% to Bush at 32%. Among all Cubans arriving after 1980 Kerry leads at 40% to Bush at 29% with 31% undecided.

As noted, none of this bodes well for Bush as the article indicates, as it is absolutely necessary for Bush to get 82% of the Cuban vote in Florida to win this state. Idf the results of the first poll are correct, even If Bush convinces all of the 11 percent of the undecided, he cannot meet that threshold. If the latest poll done by the New Democrat Network is closer to being correct, Bush still cannot meet that threshold. If the non-partisan poll figures from August remain correct, he is farther away from meeting that threshold than even the Democratic based polls indicate.

This may account for the Republican House currently working on a bill to ease up on the Travel Restrictions to Cuba that they and Bush recently imposed:




House Backs Lifting Some Cuba Travel Limits

By Anna Willard
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday defied the White House and backed a measure that would allow Cuban American families to visit Cuba more frequently.

The Bush administration, in a statement, had asked lawmakers not to make any changes to its Cuba travel policy saying that limiting its ability to enforce the policy would help the "desperate and repressive" regime of Fidel Castro.

Cuba policy is extremely sensitive in Florida, a key swing state in the presidential race where Cuban Americans form a crucial voting bloc.

The House voted 225 to 174 to support the amendment which was tacked onto a spending bill funding the Departments of Transport and Treasury in 2005.



http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=6297878

This would seem to be an indication that the Bush campaign and its supporters in Congress are worred about Bush's falling support among Cubans in Florida. However, this does nothing to ease the resreiciots on sending money to Cuba, which is as important, or likely even more important to Cubans with relatives in Cuba. The changed bill allows Cuban Americans to visit Cuba once a year, rather than once every three years as the earlier legislation supported by Bush and passed by his Republican support in congress.

Hopefully, the sentiments of Cuban American remain as they currently stand. George Bush won Florida with overwhelming Cuban support in 2000. He does not have that support right now. Without a repeal of the harsh trade embargo placed on Cuba by the Bush administration this year, it seems unlikely that he will get anything like the 83 percent Cuban vote he received in 2000.

To Kerry's benefit.

[rocktivity]

1. Ten cuidado del nombre Bush!

http://www.newdem.org
Scroll down the column of pictures on the right and click on the bottom one (Bush with two faces) Then click ENG under "streaming" on the media player.

:headbang:
rocknation