salon: My GOP: Too old, too white to win

Douglas Carpenter

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon Jul-20-09 03:50 AM
Original message

salon: My GOP: Too old, too white to win

My GOP: Too old, too white to win

A Republican looks at the numbers and sees disaster ahead, unless his party figures out how to be less -- caucasian

By Bill Greener

link: http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/07/20/gop_math/?source=newsletter

snip: "In 1976, 90 percent of the votes cast in the presidential election came from non-Hispanic whites. In 2008, John McCain won this vote by a 56-43 margin. Had John McCain run in 1976 instead of 2008, not only would he have won, but he would have won the popular vote before a single non-white vote was cast. So, despite all the chatter about the impact of Sarah Palin, despite the unpopularity of President Bush, despite the difficulty of the same party winning a third consecutive national election, despite the charisma of Barack Obama (and the love shown to him by the mainstream media), despite the financial meltdown of September, despite any other factor anyone can cite, if John McCain had been the candidate at a time when non-Hispanic whites were the overwhelming majority of the voters, he would be president now.

What happened? By 1988, the non-Hispanic white vote had shrunk to 85 percent; by 2004, it was about 77 percent; and in 2008, it had shrunk to 75 percent. Last November 13 percent of the electorate was black. Barack Obama won almost all this vote (97 percent). Between 8 and 9 percent of the electorate was Hispanic, a demographic Obama won by a 2-to-1 margin (compared to the 40 percent Bush had won in 2004). That means before the first non-Hispanic white vote was counted, the score was 19-3 for Obama. When you think about the numbers, it's not that surprising that this past Thursday the first black president addressed the centennial convention of the NAACP. A signal achievement, certainly, an unprecedented event, but not a mathematical shock.

But wait -- there's more statistical gloom for Republicans. Just about 18 percent of the vote was cast by voters between the ages of 18 and 30. As a percentage of the overall vote, this did not constitute any sort of meaningful increase -- despite what the pundits were saying. However, since total turnout was up, it did mean more young voters went to the polls. Worse, for Republicans, these voters went to Obama by a margin of 2-to-1. Chances are that now they've got the voting habit, a lot of them will keep turning up on Election Day, and keep voting Democratic.

Then, you have increased support for Obama and other Democrats from cities and close-in suburbs. So, in the major metropolitan areas -- where diversity is nearly a religion -- you have strong support for Obama from virtually every quarter. Guess what else is located in these urban locations? For starters, you have the major media outlets. Is it any wonder that coverage of the election took on the tone of Obama's election being a virtual certainty? In these locations, Obama was running so strong, it was hard for those observing to see how he could lose. John McCain's strength came from locations that generally were not the subject of much attention by the national media."

snip: "Unless and until Republicans can demonstrate an ability to attract more support from minority voters, from younger voters, from voters living in urban areas, it seems to this die-hard Republican that we are kidding ourselves if we think the 2008 election was just a speed bump on our road to a lasting majority. Looking at nothing more than the math, it appears to me our challenge is far more daunting."

link to full article:

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/07/20/gop_math/?source=newsletter