Open Thread Following Al Jazeera Iranian Vote Count Coverage

[grantcart]

Al Jazeera English has excellent coverage of the competing claims and up to date news, it is very similar to BBC:

http://www.livestation.com/channels/3-al_jazeera_english


Latest number released with 20% of the vote in the official numbers 'show' Ahmadinejad 69%.

Presumably these are from the rural areas.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Well if they're from the rural areas, they will favor Ahmadinejad.

But 69% is huge, even at only 20%.

[grantcart]

3. I have to say I really like these analysts, they are equally sceptical and

don't appear to have any bias.

Seems much better than what we have here.

[babylonsister]

2. m$nbc reporting they're both claiming victory. Could be a

long night. Go, Mousavi!

[vaberella]

5. I've been watching AJ since last night b/c of GC and JD. I can say...

I'm a bit disgusted we have the shitty pundits and commentators we have.

[nomaco-10]

4. Sadly, Iran will probably have to endure a few stolen elections...

before they can finally rid themselves of the crazy, power hungry ahmadenejad. I can certainly sympathize with the Iranian people, we went thru two back to back stolen elections in this country before we could rid ourselves of shitforbrains and darthvader. Their's might be an even longer and crueler road to hoe ahead. I hope not, especially for those hungry for change, progress and peace.

[grantcart]

6. WOW

They are saying that it has already been counted and that they are doing a recount.

68% to Ahmadinejad


Confrontation seems ahead.

[SuperTrouper]

7. 68% of the mullahs and the young vote: discounted, they are too young and stupid

to know what they really want (according to the Ayatollahs).

[MadBadger]

8. Reports: After 15 million votes counted, Ahmadinejad leads with 68% of the vote

WTF?

[grantcart]

9. and there are 2 other candidates

interesting to see what happens in Tehran.

[DCBob]

10. Must be vote fraud.

Cannot imagine after all the excitement and rallys and huge turnout it would be this loopsided towards Ahmadinejad.

[SamCooke]

11. some CLOSE election. nt

[DCBob]

12. Why do think these votes are from rural areas?

Did Al Jazeera report this?

[DCBob]

13. If these numbers hold up it would be the largest victory in Iranian political history.

Makes zero sense.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. It's extremely unlikely they hold.

We even see cases of this in America, specifically when a rural-favored candidate faces an urban-favored one. Since rural ballots tend to come in quicker, they inflate the totals and that favors Ahmadinejad. Once the urban votes begin to trickle in, I'm guessing that 69% will drop dramatically.

However, the drop won't be strong enough to lose him the election. Ahmadinejad probably did what conservatives do in many states here. He ran it up in the rural areas and most likely didn't get nearly as blown out as he needed to do in the urban spots. That provides him a cushion the opposition likely won't be able to overcome.

[DCBob]

15. How do you know these are rural areas?

[Drunken Irishman]

16. That's what they were reporting on the teevee.

And it makes sense, since rural votes generally are counted earlier because there aren't nearly as many precincts as in the urban areas and not nearly the vote.

Ahmadinejad was expected to carry the rural parts of the country by a wide margin and the only hope we had is if the urban folk voted for the opposition by as wide of a margin. But that doesn't appear to be the case, though we won't know until all the votes are in.

[DCBob]

19. If so, then the gap can be made up in the urban areas.

I assume the vast majority live in the urban areas and I assume Moussavi support would be just a dominant or more in the urban areas as Ahmadinejad is in the rural areas. Then Moussavi should win. Right?

[Drunken Irishman]

20. I guess I was wrong, sorry Bob.

Those are the total figures, I guess. Something is definitely up. :(

[DCBob]

23. No problem. I am sorry too. Sorry for all the Iranians who worked so hard and were so hopeful.

It really sucks bigtime.

[grantcart]

17. They are saying thall all of the ballots were counted in a few minutes and that these

are the recount figures.

They are saying that they counted ballots through out the day so they didn't have any backlog.


It seems obvious to me that they are desperate to avoid a run off election because they are afraid of the demonstrations which, at one point, chanted "Death to the Government".


Once you open the door its hard to keep it shut. We will see what happens in the street.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Screw it.

I'm tired of governments.

[DCBob]

21. FRAUD!

Time to riot in Tehran.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Yup.

Fuck.

[DCBob]

24. Whoever wins election, U.S. wants talks with Iran

Fri Jun 12, 2009 5:53pm EDT Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page<-> Text <+>
By Sue Pleming - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama plans to pursue attempts to engage Tehran whether hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or his moderate rival Mirhossein Mousavi ultimately emerges as the winner of Iran's election.

"The president's decision to engage Iran was not based on a particular electoral result. We are going to engage the Iranian government whether it is led by one faction or the other," a senior State Department official said.

more: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE55B67120090612

==========

Looks like the WH suspected the election was going to go to Ahmadinejad.