FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Crist Still Dominating

[ccharles000]

Strategic Vision (R) (5/29-31, likely voters, 2/6-8 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 29 (26)
Charlie Crist (R): 59 (60)
Kendrick Meek (D): 30 (24)
Marco Rubio (R): 31 (26)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Charlie Crist (R): 59 (54)
Marco Rubio (R): 22 (4)
Other: NA (33)
(MoE: ±4.5%)


Alex Sink (D): 39
Bill McCollum (R): 41
Alex Sink (D): 40
Paula Dockery (R): 34
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Bill McCollum (R): 44
Paula Dockery (R): 28
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Republican polling firm Strategic Vision takes a look at both the Senate and Governor's races in Florida. They also polled the Senate race in February, including a Crist/Meek matchup back when the notion of Charlie Crist actually switching over to Senate seemed rather fanciful. However, the numbers haven't really budged much since then, even though the field has started to solidify.

Rep. Kendrick Meek has made up a few points on Crist, but is still trailing Crist by 30, looking pretty insurmountable at this point. On the other hand, Meek vs. former state House speaker Marco Rubio is a dead heat (although the undecideds on that race are still tremendously high). In the GOP primary, Rubio has shot up, but not at Crist's expense. Instead, Rubio seems to have cornered most of the former "Other" vote, as the previous poll included Reps. Vern Buchanan and Connie Mack, and movement conservative voters seem to have dutifully gravitated to Rubio now that he's the right-wing's horse in the race. Rubio can expect to further improve as he gets better-known, but with Crist near 60%, that's an incredibly steep hill to climb.

There aren't any trendlines on the governor's race (which only recently became clear it would be CFO Alex Sink vs. AG Bill McCollum), but the 2-point lead for McCollum is very consistent with previous Sink/McCollum matchups, going all the way back to when it was assumed these two would be squaring off for the Senate instead. Strategic Vision also polls state Senator Paula Dockery, who's been making some noise this week about running in the primary that the state GOP thought they'd already cleared. Dockery doesn't turn out to be much of a factor right now, losing badly in the primary against McCollum and trailing Sink by 6 in the general, although her position might improve as her name recognition improves outside the I-4 corridor.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5066/flsen-flgov-crist-still-dominating

[WI_DEM]

1. If he runs for senate this is one the Dems are likely to lose.

[Lochloosa]

2. Will lose. Crist will walk in.

[Bankhead_ATL]

3. If he stays level headed I can give Crist a chance

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. That's assuming that he is the nominee