About Specter and a Primary opponent

[AllentownJake]

Don't get your hopes up.

Specter made a deal and the brokers were Joe Biden and Ed Rendell.

Joe Biden representing the White House and Ed Rendell representing the PA democratic party.

As a veteran of the Primary in 2008 I can tell you one thing. You cannot beat the PA democratic party in a primary battle. It cannot be done. We can wax poetically about grassroots all day, truth being said PA has a machine, and that machine is pretty damn good. Don't believe me ask the President or anyone who worked in that Primary.

It has its pluses and minuses. The Party put the fear of God into every elected official about endorsing Obama over Hillary. It also through all of its weight into supporting the President in the General Election.

We would not have won PA with the margins we did without the PA democratic party.


I'm just saying this as a realist. Arlen Specter will not have a primary opponent. If he does the person will be crushed by the combined weight of the White House and the PA democratic party backing Arlen Specter.

[BlooInBloo]

1. Heh. Not even Obama could win the primary there.

[AllentownJake]

2. Exactly

The most talented politician I've seen in my lifetime with a giant campaign war chest couldn't even win against the democratic party machine with 6 weeks to campaign and an army of grass roots volunteers.

[AtomicKitten]

6. Operation Chaos played a significant role in the outcome as well. n/t

[AllentownJake]

9. No it did not

Operation Chaos was a very limiting factor due to the closed primary.

Of the people that change registration, very few switched back.

Hillary won that election amongst democrats. I'm saying that as someone who was a leader in the local Obama campaign.

[AtomicKitten]

14. I and the data beg to differ; this is certainly arguable but I think you understate the impact.

Operation Chaos and the Saving of Hillary Clinton
http://politicalinquirer.com/2008/05/03/operation-chaos-and-the-saving-of-hillary-clinton/

Operation Chaos Could Impact Election - More Than 100,000 voters Changed Affiliation in Pennsylvania
http://archive.uwire.com/2008/04/10/column-operation-chaos-could-impact-election-results/

Limbaugh Seeks to Sow Chaos in Democrats' Race - 100,000 GOP Voters Crossed Over to Vote In Penn
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/26/MN3A10AP2P.DTL

[AllentownJake]

21. What is the data on switching back

You do realize that the Obama campaign actively went to the houses of Republicans and asked them to switch during that primary. You do realize I personally collected the registration forms of 20 people and changed them from Republicans to Democrats.

[PBS Poll-435]

18. Explain significant

0-1 points?

1-2?

Just what kind of "significant" impact do you think resulted from Limbaugh's game?

[elocs]

3. I am sure what you are saying is true, but DU is not always good at grasping reality.

By the same token I would tend to think that it was made clear to Spector what is expected of him to get that support. He doesn't have to be perfect, but I would guess he is expected to stay mostly in line with the Democratic Party.

[AllentownJake]

4. I'm very sure

That if there is a close vote Arlen will vote the way the President wants him to for the remainder of 2009.

The question is what he does in 2011. He'll be 86 when he runs for re-election again if he ever does. Frankly, you will see the real Arlen Specter in 2011 because he is a man at the end of his life and has just run his last race he will be a man with nothing to fear.

[wisteria]

5. Thank you for laying out the reality of the situation. Pa does and has had a very strong Dem

machine for at least 45 years. And, Rendell was instrumental in H. Clinton's win here. He will do the same for his friend Specter. They have known each other for many years and served together in the Phila. DA's office. I don't mind Specter though, he isn't THAT bad. The man is actually amazing for 79 years of age. This may well be his last term in office.

[grantcart]

7. How damaging will this video be in PA?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x306322

seems like an ad that rights itself - will it have impact in PA?

[AllentownJake]

10. Depends on who his General Election Opponent is

Pat Toomey is viewed as batshit insane and has made enough crazy statements on film to negate that.

If its Gerlach, well, than it is an entirely different story.

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[Enrique]

15. it's important to have a dem

but not that important, not cancer/death important.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

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[Enrique]

13. machines can be beaten

it all depends on what Specter does between now and 2010. He'll have to at least near a semblance of being a democrat. These are democratic primary voters after all, it's hardly automatic for them to vote for a republican, regardless of what Obama or Rendell tells them to do.

[iamthebandfanman]

17. Joe Sestak.

is already an elected PA democrat.


thanks for your input, but just because you had no luck doesnt mean anybody else who tries is doomed.

[AllentownJake]

22. If someone was going to beat Specter

I would expect them to come from Pittsburgh, not the area of PA where democrats vote for Specter as a Republican.

[PassingFair]

19. I'm sure they said the same thing about Connecticut...

But the Dems gave Joe the heave-ho...

I know that the DLC still backed him,
and he won with the votes of republicans...

BUT, Joe will never win another DEMOCRATIC
race, and it was WORTH IT.

Rank and file dems who voted for Joe
will not make the same mistake again.

The message has been sent.

[AllentownJake]

23. I don't believe CT has the same party apparatus

nor did that race have the current Democratic President of the United States and his popular Vice President in that region campaigning for him.

[ShadowLiberal]

20. Err... didn't the PA party leaders not want Rendell to run for governor 6 years ago?

I was too young to vote then, but I recall reading somewhere that a lot of democratic PA insiders wanted Casey to get the nomination for governor over Rendell because they viewed Rendell as too liberal to get elected.

[AllentownJake]

24. The party was split on Rendell

and Rendell could depend on his own machine he had come up in and reinforced in Philadelphia.

[AllentownJake]

25. Add Senator Casey to the list of people supporting Specter

Just got an email from him today.

There is no oxygen left in the room for anyone else.