Ayatollah Khamenei may not support Ahmadinejad in the upcoming election

[Aloha Spirit]

It's possible that he thinks a reformist President would be more productive for Iran in negotiations with Obama.

First--here's a detailed interpretation of Khamanei's response to Obama's Nouruz message last month. :
http://icga.blogspot.com/2009/03/on-khameneis-response-to-obama.html

The speech was quite long, first dealing with domestic affairs and focusing mostly on the need to curb the consumption of resources. But it gets interesting around minute 40 when he explains why his public support for President Ahmadinejad should not be construed as support for him as a candidate in the next presidential election. This is of course a big issue for Iran’s domestic politics and the fact that the leader himself had to address it was significant since Ahmadinejad supporters are working very hard to give the impression that he is his candidate.

You may remember Obama's message, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nowruz/
Bush also issued New Years greetings. From 2008: http://american-iranian.org/publications/articles/2009/03/president-bushs-2008-nowruz-message.html

Many people consider Obama's message a significant departure from Bush's nowruz greetings for two reasons.
He referred to the government as the "Republic of Iran" instead of as a "regime" suggesting that Obama considers the government to be legitimate.
Secondly, Obama does not use wedge language to criticize the government in front of the Iranian people. Bush and Kerry more recently used language that differentiated between the people and the government. This language is seen as an attempt to encourage dissent.
(http://anthonyzeitouni.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=9 for more discussion on this)

Now, why might Khamenei not publicly support Ahmadinejad in the June election?
Here's an interesting (and optimistic perhaps, but I am an optimist) editorial from the Guardian yesterday

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/apr/06/iran-nuclear-power

Until now, the supreme leader has offered unprecedented support to Ahmadinejad. However, new events on the ground may mean that for the next elections, matters may not be entirely in Khamenei's hands. The election of Barack Obama and his offer of unconditional talks with Iran have created new challenges for the supreme leader. With such a popular president at the helm in Washington, shunning America could be a costly mistake.

Khamenei realises that during the expected negotiations, Obama would prefer a reformist resident of the presidential office in Louis Pasteur Street in Tehran. This is why he is waiting to negotiate with Iran after the Iranian presidential elections. He does not want to improve Ahmadinejad's chances.

Although the supreme leader is under no obligation to compromise with Obama, shunning the US president would be damaging, both diplomatically and economically. Realising that the re-election of Ahmadinejad may be interpreted as a rebuff in Washington, it is very possible that Khamenei may decide that Ahmadinejad's removal may serve his interests far more than keeping him as president.

What will Obama do.

What would you do?

In his campaign, Obama repeated many times that his negotiations with Iran may not be done through Ahmadinejad. So Obama has made it clear that he doesn't consider Ahmadinejad the most useful player in negotiations. Khamenei is really smart. The response to Obama's Nouruz message show that. The reformist candidate Mousavi sounded a few degrees more sane than Ahmadinejad in a recent press conference. (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=8324926&mesg_id=8324926)

But should Obama try to influence the June presidential election, or should he save his major overture for later?
The state department is supposed to have a major review of Iran completed in May.
I think we'll see something between then and the June 12th election addressed to the Muslim world, not Iranians particularly.

Here is a discussion on this from March 11th:
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/03/11/us_may_soon_make_overture_to_iran_leader/

The Obama administration is leaning toward making a major diplomatic overture to Iran before the country's presidential elections in June. This initiative could come in the form of a letter from President Obama to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to two senior European diplomats who have met in recent weeks with key State Department officials crafting a new US policy toward Iran

In the mean time, UN diplomats are meeting in London today to discuss how to move forward with Iran on the nuclear issue, which should make an interesting backdrop to tomorrow's official Iranian "nuclear technology day," during which Ahmadinejad will make provocative statements about the progress of their nuclear energy program.


edit--left off a link

[Aloha Spirit]

1. Here's another take on the upcoming election

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=5&article_id=100185

On the conservative side, Ahmadinejad so far stands on his own. But many conservatives also oppose his economic policies, as well as his management style. Conservative voices have repeatedly argued that their support for Ahmadinejad will cost them votes and will only reinforce the economic crisis. Conservative disenchantment with Ahmadinejad is also apparent in the current Majlis, which is predominantly conservative. The Majlis has rejected the government's economic bills, and has repeatedly impeached or challenged Ahmadinejad's Cabinet ministers.

Iran's main diplomatic challenge in the near future will center on the developments of its nuclear program as well as its relations with the United States. Since the president has no authority over these issues, any disagreement between the Ayatollah Khamenei and the next president will place the president in a difficult position, without his having any real power.

[FrenchieCat]

2. Appears that Obama's diplomatic offensive is already bearing fruits.

That's why it is always good to have a smart President!

Thank you for the information.

[Aloha Spirit]

3. I really enjoy when the media says other countries think Obama is

naive and easy to manipulate.

Keep underestimating him, lol.

Yr welcome!

[FrenchieCat]

4. That's not just other countries that say that......

and there is even a large sector of DU that literally believe
that they know better than Barack Obama as to what should be done,
in every single aspect of his Presidency. I remember him saying
that he is second guessed by so many, until he is largely used to it. :)

[Occam Bandage]

5. This is a great sign that Obama's new diplomatic strategy is working. nt