Bad polling news: ICR poll has Bush up 8 among LVs

[lancdem]

What's worse is they had the race tied in their last poll, Sept. 1-5. That means Bush got an 8-point bounce since the convention.

Someone, please cheer me up. :( I know about that IBD poll, but I thought for sure we were done with national polls showing Bush with leads this big. And an 8-point bounce since the RNC scares me. Bush still has the momentum, and I see little being done to stop it. If the polls next week still show Bush with a lead, we're in deep shit, because that means his post-RNC bounce ain't temporary.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

There's no way an incumbent with Bush's record should be the favorite. But as much as we make fun of the intelligence of some voters, I can see why some are gravitating toward Bush even if they have doubts about him. Kerry has not made a forceful case for removing him from office, and he must start doing that NOW. If he doesn't run the best possible campaign and put together the best team of advisers with a proven track record, he doesn't deserve to win. I know he came from behind to beat Bill Weld in '96, but Weld did not have Karl Rove working for him.

Kerry better kick ass in the debates.

[Cocoa]

1. ignore the polls

Bush will be leading all the way til election day, do you really want to put yourself through this for that long?

[still_one]

2. wish I could

I suspect push polling...

But when you have democrats like Pelosi for house resolution 757, introduced by Henry Hyde last week linking 9/11 with the war in Iraq, what do you expect. What do we stand for as a party?

[Wright Patman]

3. Kerry is taking a dive

It's all part of the Skull & Bones code or something.

This is like watching professional wrestling.

[lancdem]

7. I don't think he's tanking on purpose

but he seems to have little idea how to get back in this. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm beginning to suspect he's a weak candidate. Bush has the worst economic record since Herbert Hoover in terms of job creation. Why isn't that being pounded home day after day? It's the damn truth.

[Sugarbleus]

8. taking a dive--->that's what I was thinking for a good while

I'm not entirely convinced yet that he isn't being "used"...HOWEVER, I don't want to go there altogether just yet, so I cling to hope and keep working with everyone else to get Kerry elected (whether he wants it or not,if that be the case).

GW just can't remain. That is all.

[Beetwasher]

4. Come On Lance! You Know Better than to get depressed over LV Numbers!

Likely voters is bullshit...

[MsTryska]

5. word....

it's the unlikely voters people need to be polling.

[Beetwasher]

20. No, It's ALL Voters

The LV category is ambiguous and arbitrary. It doesn't take into account all the NEW voters that will decide this election.

[Mr Blond]

25. I keep seeing this argument....

...but for the life of me, I can't see how all these "New" voters are going to represent at least 9% of the voters on election day. (Actually 18%, since we're only half of the electorate).

I'm not trying to deflate you, I'm just trying to be realistic here...And reality says turnout hovers around 50%. It doesn't go from 50% to 59% in one election cycle.

"Likely Voters" are the most reliable. Why? Because they're "Likely" to vote!


That being said...Ignore the polls! Up or down! Just get out and work to make a difference!! :)

[Beetwasher]

32. "Likely" Based On Somewhat of An Arbitrary

scale.

You might be very surprised at the turnout this year...Registrations are at an all time high.

[Mr Blond]

35. We can only hope!!

And keep working, my friend!! :)

[lancdem]

12. I'm sorry

but the fact he gained 8 points in this poll since the convention really bothers me. Bush has taken control, and he's in the driver's seat, and Kerry still looks to me like he's floundering.

If he loses, the ramifications for the Dems will be huge. The amount of anger and second-guessing directed at him and his campaign aides will be unbelievable, and with good reason. When you have a vulnerable incumbent, you have to take advantage of the opportunity to unseat him.

[Beetwasher]

21. It Shouldn't Surprise You At All

Especially if this is their first poll since the convention. Bush has had some momentum post-convention. No big deal.

[Teaser]

30. You say Bush gained 8 points? How do you know?

What makes you think it isn't just noise? He certainly ain't gained significantly since last week in any other poll. In fact, most polls show his bounce fading a little (to a lot).

So what is the reasonable conclusion: He had a delayed bump from his convention, or that this is an unrepresentative sample?

[formernaderite]

31. It is actually bad....

...I'm not the cheerleader type so I can't root for the team when it's down. It is down...the question is when will it get up. I think they could pull this out...and I'm counting on an October surprise....two weeks and counting. That said, we also haven't had the debates. Kerry could sink Bush in a one on one. Let's not get morose...but stay realistic.

[DaveinMD]

6. and yesterday's

poll had the race tied. I'm guessing Kerry is really down by about 4 points. I don't think the race is tied, but I doubt he's down 8. Kerry has work to do, but this is still a close race.

[lancdem]

9. I know, but it's obvious that memogate isn't hurting him at all

probably because most people don't care or think they're forgeries. Kerry has been way too cautious, and cautious politicians lose. I'm just frustrated right now.

[DaveinMD]

10. my feeling on all these memos and such

is that it does nothing by fire up the base. Kerry needs to attack Bush on the issues and his horrendous record. That is where the election will be won. I think we're starting to see more of that.

[mahenphx]

22. Memogate may not be but...

The Florida Nader issue is going to start a shit storm if we can keep it active in the media long enough. This is showing their hand too soon that they aren't going to let a little thing like people's choice stand in their way. Really dumb to go right back to the state that caused the rage in 2000. But it may be the dynomite Kerry needs to blast the blinkers off people's eyes.
Ma Hen in Phoenix

[dennis4868]

11. I know how you feel.....

there are just too many pols out there that do show things slipping away from Kerry little by little and it downright worries me! I just cannot believe that a man who is a criminal thug and who has caused so many bad things to happen these past 4 years can get away with this!

I know many here will begin to attack me but we have to be honest with ourselves here...well, I guess we just have to work that mych harder....BACK TO WORK....REGISTER VOTERS!

[lancdem]

14. You're right about working harder

We all have to do our part, even if our chances of winning are slipping away.

[flpoljunkie]

13. Read this new IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters. It will cheer you up.

http://www.investors.com/editorial/feature.asp?view=1

A new IBD/TIPP poll put President Bush and Sen. John Kerry in a dead heat, suggesting Bush's post-convention bounce is quickly disappearing.

<>The poll also has good news for Kerry. Among independents, Kerry leads Bush by 10 points, 48%-38%. His lead is 12 points — 51%-39% — in battleground states.

Kerry also dominates among urban dwellers (60% vs. 31%), while Bush leads in the suburbs (54% vs. 40%) and rural areas (57% vs. 36%).

Among likely voters who are still feeling the sting of lost jobs or impending job losses, Kerry has a 2-to-1 edge (61% vs. 32%). Investors back Bush 50%-40%, but noninvestors favor Kerry by 15 points.

[DaveinMD]

cherry picking of polls

Really doesn't serve a purpose. We are likely down a few points. But, it is still close and we are the position most challengers are when facing off against an incumbent. Kerry is right in this game.

[lancdem]

16. I've already seen that

[grasswire]

15. likely voters....are more LIKELY Republicans

The Kerry campaign is telling people to watch the "registered voters" and not the "likely" voters.

[itaintoveryet]

17. this should cheer you up

Kerry Takes Lead in New National Poll

John Kerry leads George Bush 46-44 percent in a head-to-head match-up among nation-wide RV's, with 10 percent not sure, according to an Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence Sept. 7-12, 2004.

go to http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

for analysis of polls.

[itaintoveryet]

19. sorry for the incorrect link

here it is :

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

[amber dog democrat]

18. These polls are bogus

It all depends on whom they are sampling, how well its done, how big the sample is.
In this case I don't put much creedence in likely voter polls.
And again how unbiasad is the entitly doing the polling?

I ignore this stuff entirely. Besides it will have NO impact on my choices.

[seabeyond]

23. amongst the astrologers, i heard a couple days ago

kerry has a karmic debt to bush and that he has to lose.

how about that, grinnin, and a wink

[WI_DEM]

24. why do you choose to believe this poll when the IBD poll was

done over the same time period showing a even race between Kerry and Bush? Also, do you discount the Rasmussen tracking polls which has had the race neck and neck for several days now?

[demosincebirth]

26. For what its worth, here is a better poll w/commentary

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

[lancdem]

27. I'm not disregarding the other poll

but I can't just believe the one that's good for Kerry and dismiss the one that's bad for him. And this poll had a tie a week ago. What happened to make Bush gain 8 points in 7 days? I hope it's just a post-RNC bounce, because if it's a backlash against memogate, we're in trouble.

[troublemaker]

28. THIS POLL WAS CONDUCTED ON 9/11 WEEKEND

Now be cheered up, already. (It's no surprise Bush does well among people actually watching 9/11 services at the time of the survey)

[Teaser]

29. Jesus Christ.

I'm sorry people, but if you let your mood be swung by the polls, you shouldn't participate in politics. It's not good for your mental health and it does no good to the candidate your supporting.

If you need to be "cheered up", I suggest you stop following politics for a week or two.

Polls have fluctuations. They aren't measuring a real quantity. They are measuring a hypothetical. And these measures fluctuate. Sometimes you're gonna be down in one poll one week, and up the next for no reason.

So look at a broad body of polls. And right now the broad body of polls suggests that we are nearly tied, or just slightly below Bush.

This poll doesn't show a bounce. It shows a statistical fluctuation.

[NYsocialworker]

33. I can't continue to watch these polls

and continue to maintain my sanity for myself and my family. Wake me up on 11/3/04.

[Czolgosz]

34. Kerry is 2 to 4 points down overall

and even to 2 points up in swing states.

Like other has said, Rasmussen has the race at nearly a dead heat: Bush 47.1 Kerry 46.5

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

No polling advantage for either candidate is critical yet, but you definitely shouldn’t worry about major outliers because many of those polls are demonstrably based on an easily detectable sampling error.

Remember, in 2000 Bush won Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and West Virginia and Kerry is competitive in all of these states this time.