Two Most Recent Polls indicate end of Bush Bounce

[Nicholas_J]

Bush-Kerry Race Tied As RNC Bounce Fades, New IBD Survey Shows
Monday September 13, 7:00 pm ET
Ibd Staff


In IBD/TIPP's first poll of likely voters, conducted Sept. 7-12, both men garnered 47% in a two-man race and 46% in a three-way race. In the latter scenario, independent Ralph Nader would take just 3% of the vote.
Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, with or without Nader, the poll found.

For polls taken after Labor Day, pollsters consider "likely voters" a more accurate indicator of actual election outcomes.

IBD/TIPP defines likely voters as adult Americans who say they are very likely to vote in November, have a high level of interest in the presidential election and have voted in every or nearly every presidential election.

Other polls show Bush ahead by four to 11 points. The latest Zogby and Fox/Opinion Dynamics polls give Bush a four-point lead. He has a five-point lead in an AP/Ipsos poll and 11 points in the latest Time magazine survey.

"The boost Bush got during the RNC and the aura that surrounded an event marked by clever speeches and hitchless execution may be fading," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.

Meanwhile, fresh questions have arisen about Bush's Vietnam-era National Guard service,



http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/040913/feature_1.html

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 47.1%
Kerry 46.5%
Other 2.6%
Not Sure 3.8%
RasmussenReports.com

Tuesday September 14, 2004--The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 47% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Senator Kerry has not been ahead in the Tracking Poll since August 23. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Bush supporters say they are certain that's how they will vote in November. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Kerry voters are that certain.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[molly]

1. Here we have the memos - * at the Guard convention

in Vegas and CBS with evidence - what timing!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. not bad enough news for Kerry apparently

Why would a DU'r respond to positive news?

[A_Possum]

3. Right

we wouldn't want to think we had a chance or anything, would we? :eyes:

[Nicholas_J]

4. Well with these two polls fron this morning

And tonights release of the Michigan polls sjhowing and increase in Kerry's lead there again it appears that there may be a sea change coming.

Kerry is beginning to go on the attack slightly, and not in the areas I think would be most effctive ( he has got to do to the idea thwat Bush is somehow making us safer from terrorism what the Swigft Boat people attemptedf to do to his military record. He has to make it clear that it was not Saddam or Iraq where the danger is but Osama and Afghanistan, and that Bush abandoned the attempts to capture these people just at the time that the CENTCOM people were most likely to be able to catch them, and diverted the resources that were pursuing Osama and Al Qaeda to Iraq, giving Osama the ability to simply walk acorss the Pakistani border, unwatched and unhindered)