NC: Hagan, Obama & 2010 Senate Contest

[Pierre.Smooth]

I have some random thoughts about NC and the political climate.

Even though Hagan won more votes then Obama, I can argue that if not for Obama, Hagan wouldn't have won. For example, a Democrat hasn't won a US Senate race in a presidential year since, before the 1970's. To preface my remarks. When I worked in the retail industry, I had a chat with my "favorite" customer. She knew I was a Democrat. So, she told me something that turned out to be true. It's cute NOW. Looking back on it, I thought it was unimportant. She said, "My friend is running for the US Senate, and she is going to win." I said, "OK." Sure enough, Hagan won. And I owe that lady a lunch, sigh. Oh well.....

Here is my question. Will Hagan be a "right leaning" Democrat, in the mold of BOTH Nelson's, or will she show some back-bone and vote along party lines?

And another thing. Am I the ONLY NC Dem not that happy about "boring" ass Cooper running for the US Senate? After Hagan, NC can surely put a lil more "life" on the ticket. I vote for Jim Hunt or Richard Moore for our candidate.

Who do you think will put Burr in the unemployment line January 2011?

[mmonk]

1. My guess is DLC like.

I've already had some back and forth with her over immigration issues through email.

[Pierre.Smooth]

8. Yeah.

So she will vote enough of the party line to get shit done, but not to "my liberal likings?"

Sigh. But at least we kicked Dole out of the senate :)

[mmonk]

12. Yes, that was the objective. She could have been a ham sandwich

and I would have voted for her. Next Burr.

[snowbear]

2. Are you a Dole fan or something Pierre?

.
.



....... -?

[Pierre.Smooth]

5. What can I say?

I have a "thing" for the autocracy.

No, but really. I, along with the "pundits" JUST KNEW that Dole was unbeatable.

Let's face it. Hagan was NO political A-Lister.

Sorry my original post confused you :)

[snowbear]

10. Zatz ok.. But you should give your new senator a chance!

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.
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And who cares what the pundits say.. you live there!

[Pierre.Smooth]

19. True.

I should and I will. Thanks.....


:hi:

[NRaleighLiberal]

7. Is that a pic from the Dark Knight? Pure joker material there...scary stuff...

[bigwillq]

3. Hello.

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[Pierre.Smooth]

21. Hey

Thanks for the welcome.....


;-)

[babylonsister]

4. Hagan won more votes than Obama? What'd I miss? nt

[TTUBatfan2008]

11. Racist Democrats...

Yes, they do exist.

[babylonsister]

15. You're not even answering what I asked. nt

[Pierre.Smooth]

20. Read post 17

;-)

[TTUBatfan2008]

23. What do you mean?

She won more votes than him. I explain it by racist Democrats. Willing to vote for a white Democrat for Senate but not for the black Democrat for President. They either sat out the Presidential race, went third party, or even went to McCain.

[Pierre.Smooth]

26. Hey

:hi:

[dsc]

47. Dole's ads turned off even GOP voters

I know several people who normally vote GOP and did vote for both McCain and McCrory but voted for Hagan on the basis of the ads Dole ran. It wasn't all racism by any means.

[Pierre.Smooth]

17. Yes. I believe so

NC Results.

Obama/Biden
2,142,651

Hagan
2,249,311

Obama beat Unstable/Unable by 14,177 votes. Hagan beat Dole by 361,801 votes. Hagan won 106,660 votes then Obama. The POINT is simple. Will Hagan be a "Reliable" Obama vote, or will she feel as if she did it on her "own" and buck the party and be too much of a "centrist?"


http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/14537/en/summary.html

[babylonsister]

25. Gotcha. I was thinking about the 50-state pic. You confused me. nt

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. Observations from a fellow North Carolinian...

I think quite a few factors contributed to the demise of nasty Liddy. From the incredible unpopularity of you know who, to the influx of lefty newcomers into some of the major population areas of the state, to the ineffectiveness of Liddy, to the dreadful Godless commercial - and I am not saying that Hagan is undeserving! - a kind of perfect storm switched a seat that I thought would be more difficult (and I couldn't be happier of course). I think Burr is another drag, and if Obama has a good start, we could sweep him away as well..here's hoping.

As far as how Kaye will lean - I don't see her being a right leaner. I see her middle to slightly left (never left enough for me of course, in this most politically odd state - but more left, certainly, than someone like Shula in the House).

So are you still basking in our state turning blue or what!

[waiting for hope]

16. My parents vote Republican and they

voted for Hagan - Dole is an abysmal failure, especially to NARFE (National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association) which my Dad belongs to. Hagan got Schumer's backing, http://bluenc.com/kay-hagan-and-chuck-schumer - I supported Neal but whatever, NC will be blue for a bit. As far a Kay leaning left, I hope that will be true.

[Pierre.Smooth]

22. Thanks

I voted for Obama. Neale. and Moore.

So 1 out of 3 won their respective primary.

It's funny, or sad about Moore. As an AA, I thought that his "race baiting" would work. So I voted for him, only because I didn't think Perdue would survive a challenge if she made it to the general. Moore was really nasty, and the nastier he got, the more I felt like I had to vote for him to keep the mansion in "our" hands. But Perdue pulled it out. ;-)

[snowbear]

27. Wasn't Neal only in the primary?

.
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He wasn't in the General election was he?

[Pierre.Smooth]

29. Geez (lol)

I am a 21 year old guy, kinda lazy, and kinda bored.

Geez.

YESS :P

Neal was in the Primary ONLY

I was referring to ALL my primary votes.

IN THE NC DEM PRIMARY, HELD IN MAY OF 2008, I VOTED FOR OBAMA FOR PREZ NOMINEE. I VOTED FOR NEAL AS THE DEM SENATE NOMINEE. AND LASTLY, I VOTED FOR MOORE AS THE GUBERNATORAL NOMINEE ;)

[waiting for hope]

28. I voted Moore too -

and wrote John Edwards in the primary .. ;) I hear McCory is running around with his tail between his legs ..:evilgrin: now that was a scary POS.

[Pierre.Smooth]

30. I was worried about

Mayor 4 eyez.

Then I reviewed his record.

"It's trash day in NYC" Remember that commercial, P R I C E L E S S ;)

[Pierre.Smooth]

24. God Yes

I am still calling all my rich ex boyfriends to rub it in. It's fun :P

[snowbear]

34. Oh yeah.. I forgot about Dole's lame "Godless" commercial !!

.
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After reading your thread, I pulled it up to remind myself.. http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/29/dole-hagan-godless/


I can see why NC is glad to see her go!

[Pierre.Smooth]

36. There was a very "interesting" open panel

I can't remember if it was hosted by NCSU or if it was hosted by a think-tank in DC, but it said that the ad HELPED Dole.

I know, I know.

But the guy who produced it said, "Dole had LOST ON THE FIRST DAY OF EARLY VOTING"

And so they had to do SOMTHING.

So, in other words. Dole lost by a LESSER margin then she would have if she hadn't run the ad? :wtf:

[ddeclue]

9. Probably will be a moderate Dem in NC like Nelson down here.

It's hard to get elected as a Dem to a state wide office in the south if you are as liberal as Barney Frank or Ted Kennedy. You CAN get elected to Congress but it's much harder for the Senate.

It's REALLY hard to say what might have happened had the candidate been Hillary instead of Obama in NC. What was the win margin in % for Hagan?

That's one of those what if they had discovered the Japanese on their way to Pearl Harbor or what if Lincoln hadn't gone to the theater kind of questions..

Doug D.

[Pierre.Smooth]

31. Race HELPED Hagan

More so then Obama.

She was the de facto "it girl" for all the young minority Dem's who voted for the first time

De Facto, meaning, "they/we" voted STRAIGHT PARTY DEM :d

[Thrill]

13. I don't think so. He helped Hagan. But she may have won without him. Perdue is who he clearly helped

Because without Obama, Perdue wouldn't have won Charlotte/Meck County.

As far as Hagan. Shes likely to be more lefty than you might think. Shes Pro Choice. And voted for that bailout for Obama. I'm expecting to be pleasantly surprised by her.

As far as Burr goes. He would get badly by AG Roy Cooper. But I think Shuler is likely to beat him as well. And of course, if Easley decides to run he would beat Burr without a problem as well. This is a for sure seat for the Dems in my opinion. Several strong candidates

[angee_is_mad]

38. Rural areas HATE Easley

with a passion. I work in Rockingham County (tobacco) and the good ole boys actually HATE!!!

Easley is like the clintons, you either love'em or hate'em.

[Pierre.Smooth]

39. I agree

I am no fan of our now ex "gov GHOST"

[angee_is_mad]

41. One Good Ole Boy told me

if he ever saw Easley he would spit on him. He said he would gladly take a charge.

Easley would have a hard time beating an incumbent. Burr will campaign hard for the redneck vote and there are some Blacks who might still be pissed off by his primary antics when he was supporting hillary.

[Pierre.Smooth]

44. Easley

Easley is a phony. I just remembered his bullshit about endorsing a loser in the primary. It was over long b4 NC. Grrrrr.

[Thrill]

45. Easley doesn't like being a politician. He doesn't like to do the campaign work

But he would still beat Burr.

[Pierre.Smooth]

46. Gov. Ghost

Is a proven, epic loser. He is lame. :hi:

[Lex]

14. I think Richard Moore will run for Burr's senate seat.

I think he can beat him too.

[Pierre.Smooth]

32. Moore's personality is just the "right" fit for a Senate

who does not mind "mavericks" :)

[supernova]

18. She's a moderate Dem

I don't know that she's full on DLC or not. But she does seem primarily budget focused at this point. Will have to see what committee appts she decides to focus on.

Is she as progressive as I'd like her to be?

No.

But, I'll definitely take her over LD. and even Heath Schuler. She is pro-choice, which is very important to me.


edit: Welcome to DU from a fellow Tarheel! :hi:

[ShadowLiberal]

33. If the curse of Burr's senate seat keeps up it'll put him out of employment

(For those who don't know, in the last 5 elections, Burr's senate seat has switched parties every time)

[Pierre.Smooth]

35. Oh don't worry

I just want to have a "nice" Dem in the seat

Hunt? YES
Easly? NO
Cooper? NO
Moore? YES

Put it this way, as long as there is an election in 2010, this seat is "OURS"

Hell yea :)

[angee_is_mad]

37. Centrist all the way

I'm from her hometown and she didn't endorse anyone during the primaries, but her kids sure as hell were at all of Obama's general election events campaigning for her.

Hell, she didn't even show up for Obama/Biden rally in her hometown. I asked one of her volunteers, "Where the hell is Kay?" Allegedly she was out of town:sarcasm:

Kay may have won without Barack, because Miss libby was (is) so lame, but it would have been closer. Now Bev Perdue need to kiss Obama's feet every time she sees him. Talk about winning on someone else's coattails.

Like for Richard Moore to make another run of it (senate) and he would be more progressive than Kay. Just don't know if he could get the good old boy votes. Also he endorsed Barack, before bev did.

[Pierre.Smooth]

40. I went to the Clinton rally

At the local community college in Raleigh. And her campaign team, lol some team, they were sitting behind THE STUDENT GOV and STUDENT seats. Anyways, they were pissed at both PERDU AND MOORE. One said, "I was hoping I would make my decision based on who would endorse CLINTON" lol :)

[angee_is_mad]

42. Was kay there?

Just wondering.

[Pierre.Smooth]

43. NOPE

Nobody was there. It was the talk of NC. Nobody showed up lol. It was sad, but then Easly endorsed her a few weeks later....

[Hippo_Tron]

48. I wish Jesse Helms had lived a few more months...

So that he could see the first black man elected President and his senate seat get taken by a Democrat on the same night.

[Pierre.Smooth]

49. Oh the joys

I was a little annoyed how the "pundits" tried to spin the Hagan victory.

"This was an outlier victory. How sad that the first woman senator was beaten by the second woman senator-elect."

It was annoying. I am just glad that the local media is focusing on Burr with a laser.

Knock knock, Senator Burr, your time is UP :D

[RDANGELO]

50. North Carolina is changing.

Because of the transplants and the increased activity of African Americans, North Carolina is becoming more progressive, a lot like Virginia. Since Sam Irvin, no Democrat has gotten reelected in the state because they turned out to be too liberal. I think that has changed. Hagan could have a somewhat liberal voting record and get reelected.

[struggle4progress]

51. Hunt's too old; not thrilled by Moore; wish Marshall'd take another jump at it

Candidate's only part of the mix though

Rule of thumb's that the President's party loses ground midterm: not ironclad but a real tendency, indicating external forces in play

Burr's still first-term Senator, so 2010 he still runs against himself and his own record -- which, given who is he and what his record is means it sucks to be him

Also: brand Repub seems to have shot itself in the knee and might be hobbling for years

Conclusion: looks now like a real chance of leaving Burr wrecked along the side of the road in 2010, but I won't bet the farm

[Pierre.Smooth]

52. History says different

In the last five elections for that seat, it has switched every time. :hi:

[struggle4progress]

53. Uh, yeah, I know: I've lived in NC for decades, and I'm politically active

I'm not sure why you think your comment about the seat switching refutes what I said in my prior post: a one term senator is still running against his/her record, suggesting Burr is vulnerable. In NC, where the Congressional delegation has been split approximately 50-50, that see-saw is quite understandable; the one term senator loses a razor-thin amount of support after 6 years -- and hence narrowly loses the re-election bid. Since nothing suggests that the see-saw is an ironclad rule, it would be silly to count on it. The same analysis apparently applied to the recent Dole-Hagan contest, where one-termer Dole narrowly lost to Hagan