Why is Ohio leaning heavily Bush?

[coloradodem2005]

They have been hit hard by his policies and yet they are going for him?

[drdigi420]

1. lots of rednecks in ohio

[Dem Agog]

3. Are you saying rednecks are stupid???!!!

Oh yeah... umm okay so you're right.

[liberal N proud]

4. I don't think it is as heavy as they want your to think

The Kerry rallies have been big.
There are a lot of signs and bumper stickers.
I don't think Ohio is heavy toward shrub!

[Philostopher]

11. Survey USA had the spread under 5, last I saw.

I think it depends on who polls and who they poll. Funny thing is, I notice here that it's the lower middle class and poor neighborhoods where I see all the Dim Son/Satan signs; in the more affluent neighborhoods with the $2 million houses, I'm seeing more Kerry yard signs than anything. Can't quite figure it out, except that a lot of the people who live in the lower neighborhoods are ex-military and retired military enlisteds who, apparently, were well-indoctrinated while they were in.

[Teaser]

2. It's not.

It's a small Bush lead by most standards.

[hadrons]

5. lots of fundies ....

and these type of voters (although this is an Ok. example)

Voters such as Gloria Smith explain this political dynamic. While Smith's husband, who works for American Airlines, recently took an $800 monthly pay cut, the homemaker from Sand Springs, Okla., just changed her voter registration from Democrat to Republican.

Smith said her family was "better off" than it was four years ago, "because we've learned to live within our means."

www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-oklahoma29aug29,1,4761299.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Most people who vote repuke don't do so because of their personal situation, many believe they are fighting for a greater cause (these tend to be the one-issue - well, morans)

read "What's the Matter with Kansas?" for a greater understanding

[2Design]

6. they have only talked to rethugs are invitation only events

[Machiavelli05]

7. what poll are you using?

Strategic Vision is the one I saw that showed a huge lead... its not all that reliable, theyre a partisan polling agency.
Other polls are putting Bush only a few points outside the MoE.

[blm]

8. Who sez it is?

And why another gloom post? Have you tallied the number of your gloom posts over the last month? Buck up.

[truthspeaker]

9. because polls lie

[WI_DEM]

10. It depends on the poll

Strategic Vision gives Bush a big lead, but Rasmussen tracking poll shows the race is tied.

[zulchzulu]

12. I bet it's SBVFT negative ads

I'm sure they are getting hammered with those ads. Unfortunately, a lazy electorate will allow for negative ads to form their opinions.

[DaveinMD]

13. its not

Most polls have it very close. Strategic Vision had California just about even.

[MallRat]

14. It's a STRATEGIC VISION POLL, folks.

Strategic Vision is a REPUBLICAN POLLING FIRM.

Everybody, CALM THE F*CK DOWN.

-MR

[59millionmorons]

15. What?

[desi]

16. The answer is really elementary..

...because many ignorant, uninformed, misinformed sons of bitches like my brother-in-law and his wife live here as well as my other brother-in-law's wife.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Ohio and Nevada are more GOP-leaning than we like to believe

These are the last four presidential elections, with a comparison to the national popular vote margin at right:

Ohio:
'88: Bush (55.00 - 44.15) = + 3.13% Republican
'92: Clinton (40.18 - 38.35) = + 3.73% Republican
'96: Clinton (47.38 - 41.02) = + 2.17% Republican
'00: Bush (49.97 - 46.46) = + 4.02% Republican


Nevada:
'88: Bush (58.86 - 37.92) = + 13.22% Republican
'92: Clinton (37.36 - 34.73) = + 2.93% Republican
'96: Clinton (43.93 - 42.91) = + 7.51% Republican
'00: Bush (49.52 - 45.98) = + 4.05% Republican

Of the states on our "A" list, only these two have trended Republican by at least two points every time since '88. I think it is extremely dangerous to overlook that consistent partisan trend and rely on here-and-now issues like Yucca Mountain and job loss.

If the national vote is a toss-up nearing the election, I believe Florida has more potential than Ohio. Florida's numbers have dramatically edged our way since '88, to a near mirror of the nation in 2000.

Florida:
'88: Bush (60.87 - 38.51) = + 14.64% Republican
'92: Bush (40.89 - 39.00) = + 7.45% Republican
'96: Clinton (48.02 - 42.32) = + 2.83% Republican
'00: Bush* (48.85 - 48.84) = + 0.52% Republican
* (my estimated adjustment, after elongated analysis and plenty of admitted guesswork, is Gore 49.18 - Bush 48.53 = + 0.14% Democrat)

[Machiavelli05]

18. I agree with you

Fl and NV stand a better chance going to Dems than Oh does...
Ohio still is reeling from Dems pushing NAFTA - and they're a lot more ideologically charged rightists

NV is a historically isolationist state and traditionally conservative with foreign policy and is not taking a liking to Bush's cowboy foreign policy. Plus Kerry has promised Yucca Mtn will not be a nuclear waste dump.

Florida has a good sized minority population that are energized after Fl's debacle in 2000, plus a good amnt of senior citizens that want lower prescription drug prices.

These factors will become the deciding factors on 11/2