After the New Year, the shit is really going to hit the fan

[cali]

There are going to be massive layoffs. We'll see the collapse of many retail companies. The big three will not recover. Related industries will shutter their doors. More and more foreclosures. More and more homeless families.

We're in a holiday bubble at the moment. By the time inauguration day rolls around, we'll be in much more dire straits.

[Skittles]

1. and it will all be blamed on Obama

[BlueJazz]

4. Isn't it amazing that when Bill Clinton and his administration had the economy going strong,,,

...it was because of "the past Republican Policies"

..Slowly they turn, Step by Step.....

[alwysdrunk]

7. At least they won't be able to say THAT this time

If in 3 years we have a strong economy again, that will be the end of the spin on the Reagan years.

[mucifer]

14. so you think NAFTA has NOTHING to do with what is going on?

Clinton was also responsible for some of the deregulation. Yes, the repubs were worse. But, to say Clinton has no blame isn't right.

[BlueJazz]

19. Oh..Yes..I agree..He was no Saint.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

50. No question.

[whistler162]

38. Well they will just have to take a number....

and get in line behind the Democrats who are already ripping Obama's presidency apart!

[bdamomma]

15. but we all know who to blame.

and it's not Obama.

[polmaven]

36. Absolutely we do...

Bill Clinton, who else? - (see above)

[Danger Mouse]

30. the media is already out for his blood, and it's only going to get worse.

[nolabels]

43. One thing i notice about when people not as fully employed as they could be..........

is that start checking with others that are more successful and less susceptible to lies. This type of attitude won't bode well for M$M in it's present configuration

[DCBob]

2. Pleasant thoughts for the holidays.

You seem to have no faith in the Obama economic recovery plan?

[POAS]

8. Even Obama has said it's going to get

worse before it gets better.

As I told someone at a house meeting I held Obama won't get anything done on his own and it won't be quick or easy. It is going to take effort from all branches of government and the private sector.

[DCBob]

9. Yeah. Probably true. But there is reason to be hopeful...

If the Obama team is able to push through their plan of massive federal investment to create jobs and drive new economic activity it could soften the blow tremendously. To me it's all about jobs -- if people see jobs being created to replace those that are lost then confidence will return and recovery is on the way.

[POAS]

11. Jobs ARE the answer

We cannot keep shipping our manufacturing base offshore and hope for a recovery here. The "service economy" is a scam.

Building up and repairing our infrastructure will require many new jobs in industries as diverse as physics and construction labor.

We cannot be impatient however. I believe that pointing out that things can (and probably will) get worse is both a nod to reality and a call for patience.

[hobbit709]

3. And it all be the Democrats fault

Extreme :sarcasm: The nutjobs and their talking asses are already trying to spin it like that. Not one peep regarding any responsibility for the last 8 years.

[girl gone mad]

6. The DLC wing of the Democratic party..

does deserve ample blame.

The liberal faction, not so much.

[alwysdrunk]

5. Yeah, that's when it will get worse before it gets better

Especially with the layoffs. So many people who now think that their jobs are safe will be in for a rude awakening.

The big 3 are being propped up and will continue to be. there really is no other choice. I think there will be a very different attitude towards Obama and the government leaders around that time.

[Dammit Ann]

10. Are you Santa?

[BeFree]

12. Why is that?

Well, if we hadn't been spending all that money in Iraq and Afghanistan on nation destruction and nation building, we would have had plenty of money right here in the US.

Republicans also went on a spending spree making their friends rich off war, and leaving the workingman laid off.

[MercutioATC]

13. At least part of it is the irresponsible consumer spending of the last decade.

Our economy ran on an unsustainable model...people spending more than what they made and running up huge credit debt. When credit tightened, the house of cards fell.

The big problem is that corporations were staffed and tooled for this unreasonably high level of consumption. There WILL be layoffs. There WILL be companies that close their doors forever.

It needed to happen.

[BeFree]

18. Ok

And it was the left that was calling it for what it was. And the 'conservatives' were doing everything they could to keep the lie going and the credit cards a' swiping.

Too many people put faith in the republican spin and now they are seeing that spin has spun spending out of control. And the republicans lead the way with the dumps of cash into overseas infrastructure while ignoring the problems at home.

And let's not even talk about how the republicans have fought to the bloody nub denying equal rights for all American citizens. Although I have noticed quite a few here have ignored the recent flair up of citizens demanding those rights.

[MercutioATC]

35. Both left and right have a share of the blame...

...but the biggest share lies with the consumers.

They are the ones who regularly spent in excess of their incomes and they are the ones that elected the people who make the regulations.

This isn't going to be a comfortable transition, but it's both a logical consequence and necessary.

[BeFree]

37. Well, did the people elect bushco?

No. The people didn't elect them, Diebold did in 2002, and 2004.

And in 2000 it was just plain grand theft.

Problem is the direction of the country was taken over by crooks who led us into this. Think of it as as air traffic controller who tells the pilot to turn right, when the pilot should have been told to turn left.

[MercutioATC]

39. Yes, we did.

...and we've been creating this situation for decades.

Most people are willfully ignorant about the issues. It's the intentionally uninformed and apathetic electorate that brought us to where we are now.

The ultimate responsibility (and blame) lies with us.

[bread_and_roses]

42. er...please explain the share of the blame attributable to the "left"

The "left" has been in power all these years? The "left" has called for the exhaltation and worshp of consumerism and profit? The "left" has supported dismantling our regulatory systems? The "left" has supported "Free Trade" without environmental or labor protections? The "left" has supported the invasion and occupation of other countries, and the torture and murder of their citizens? The "left" has denied global warming and supported unsustainable agriculture and energy policies?

Please do explain to me how "the left" has any share at all in the grim landscape we now survey.

[TBF]

24. Correct. But be careful about the blaming aspect. Capitalism demands

that consumption in order to thrive. It is not that people were not "smart" enough, it is that we are working with a system that exploits in order to exist, and our governmental policies support that model.

My hope is that people will start saying "why the free market"? "Who is it really helping?" Cali is right in her OP of course, and our challenge is to look at this and decide if we really want a few billionaires holding all the cards and the rest of us sleeping in tents, or if we want to fight for real change.

[pecwae]

16. Meeeery Christmas!

[safeinOhio]

17. Dire predictions

are always about half right.
There is a huge psychological component to markets. A slight improvement in the job numbers and housing will cause a snow ball effect. I have faith that the new ADULT adm. will turn it around in less time than expected. This will bring the total collapse of conservative politics for a long time. You have to break some eggs to make an omelet.

[mnhtnbb]

29. I want to agree with you.

[Honeycombe8]

20. Merry Christmas to you, too! nt

[Shiver]

21. I have a solution

More holidays. Remember, the fifth of January is Mungday on the Discordian calendar... :fistbump:

[Yavin4]

22. Ummm.....Shit Has Been Hitting The Fan Ever Since December 2000

When the SCOTUS forced Bush on us. 9/11, Katrina, Iraq, Spy-Gate, Financial Collapse.

[FrenchieCat]

25. Certainly......But before, many of us watched from the sidelines....

Cali's point is that the poo is about to get much thicker and may splash on us all....even the top 1% might be tightening their belts! And when that happens, you know we are hitting hard times.

I just feel badly for all of the people that aren't as fortunate as I am (and I ain't that fortunate)....because it will get worse before it gets better....and yet, the Electric bill is due and payable each and every month, holidays included. :(

[leftofthedial]

23. Why, when I've said this, have I been dismissed as a pathetic doom and gloomer?

Glad to see others waking up to reality.

[anigbrowl]

40. Because you tend to throw the baby out with the bathwater

Nothing personal, but it's almost impossible to discuss economics with you because you dismiss pretty much all economic theory as bunk, and when you do advocate something it tends to be ultra-protectionism, which has also been an abject failure. A lot of well-intentioned socialists promote the idea of repatriating all manufacturing, imposing high tariffs, and foregoing international trade - on the theory that if we closed our economy and only tended to our own needs, there'd be jobs for everyone and we'd be self-sufficient.

It's a seductive vision: this kind of economy is called an 'autarky', and you can see from the roots of the word that it derives from the greek for 'self sufficiency'. Unfortunately, it tends to work really, really badly in practice, and is very strongly correlated with authoritarian governments - probably because enforcing it requires very strict economic governance, or you just end up with large-scale black markets and rampant smuggling.

I visited the USSR back in the 80s when it was still a communist country and it was easy to see what wasn't working (although there were some things I liked about the place). There were abundant supplies of things people didn't need or want, and corresponding shortages of things we take for granted here. I traded a good amount of cheap clothes (JC Penney type stuff - I was a student at the time) because well-tailored non-military clothes were almost impossible to find in Russian shops. In return I got things foreigners weren't allowed to buy but which had little value to most Russians, like military dress accessories or domestic propaganda books, which is how I ended up as the proud owner of an army officers' greatcoat.

Had I been less paranoid, I could have bought an AK-47. Amazingly, I was able to barter plastic airport bags too, because possession of such was 'evidence' of foreign travel and thus social status. Now, I just wanted 'cool' stuff, and Communist memorabilia was fashionable back in western Europe due to its unavailability and air of the forbidden (thus, I too was attempting to increase my social status). But if I'd had a large amount of money, it probably wouldn't have been that hard to get more contraband stuff, like bulk quantities of military gear...which is exactly what happened when the Soviet Union collapsed: with a broken economy, military officials were delighted to sell off surplus weapon systems which were gathering dust in warehouses in return for hard currency from arms dealers.

Libya, which had a semi-closed command economy at the time, donated hundreds of tons of weapons to the Irish Republican Army (aka provisional IRA), who Gaddafi felt at the time were useful due to their shared hostility towards the government of the UK. The IRA also covertly obtained large quantities of weapons in the US, where the market at the time was arguably too open and unregulated; but their enthusiasm for buying arms in America waned after they lost several million dollars to fraudsters who supplied them with scrap metal instead of weapons.

Here's a wikipedia article about autarky, although it's not very good - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autarky However, it's worth following the links within to study how it's worked out in other economies. It's also worth reading the article about its application in North Korea: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche Finally, here is an interesting and more philosophical article about it from a scientist's perspective: http://hanson.gmu.edu/dreamautarky.html

None of this should be construed to suggest that our current economic model is working well, is not in need of sweeping reform, or is not corrupted on many levels. Deregulation and lax enforcement of existing regulation have wrought a disaster, and I agree that it will get worse; I don't expect to see growth return to the US economy until 2010, so 2009 is going to be really tough and unpleasant. However, I do think that the basic idea of an open and market-based economy is fundamentally sound: that is, one in which sellers are free to compete on price and buyers are free to choose between products and services.

Autarkies, which generally adopt a more coupon-based economy than floating currencies (either via price controls or actual coupons) are still subject to the vagaries of supply and demand, but tend to lurch along due to the concentration of state power in the military until they undergo sudden and often violent collapse. Russia today manifests a form of gangster capitalism, which it's possible to make staggering amounts of money - IF you bribe the right people and are willing to live with the risk of sudden expropriation (or plan against such an occurrence). You might find it interesting to visit as a contrast with the US.

[leeroysphitz]

26. Link? n/t

[southernyankeebelle]

27. EEEEEK

You are right. I am scared to death for the country. I worry that I don't even sleep well. I am praying Obama is going to really try to put the country on the right track. I know it will take time but I really want him to have everyones support. But who knows the republicans don't want to cooperate. I don't know these people don't want Obama to make go because they are hurting america.

[mnhtnbb]

28. What a happy thought.

:sarcasm:

[Danger Mouse]

31. I'm really worried about this, but I hope it's not as bad as you say.

[ecstatic]

32. Why are people shopping for the holidays if they can't afford it?

I'm so glad me and my friends/family have an understanding. No gifts! Anyone over 16 should not receive a gift on Christmas. :rofl:

[totodeinhere]

41. A lot of people just don't understand how bad it will get.

Unless you are in your eighties or older, you can't remember the great depression, and folks, that's where we're headed.

[rusty fender]

33. Look, Obama has shown us, thus far, that he

is a corpo/status quo guy. He'll try desperately to save the military-industrial-congressional complex and will fail. Of course, that means we are on our own, and we'll have to save ourselves anyway we can.

[Danger Mouse]

34. Oh bullshit.

Like that attitude helps. :puke:

[trashcanistanista]

44. What it will come down to is we will have

to save each other. On a local basis we have to reach out and ensure that our neighors are taken care of and are safe. We need a massive conscience realignment in this country. With the upcoming disaster I think we can do it.

Edited for: Merry Christmas!:hi:

[Fire1]

45. Believe me, the big 3 WILL recover. No doubt in my mind.

[Trajan]

47. The 'Big Three' will NOT recover, and here is why ...

The problem is NOT the 'Big Three', but the economy at large ....

People do not have enough money, because wages have NOT maintained parity with the increased costs of living expenses ....

When ARM loans reset this last year, most homeowners had no 'deep pockets' from which to dig, because their wages have, on the whole, stagnated due to conservative corporate policies that devalue real work and praise 'investment' : Families are 'tapped out', and they have no more money in their budget above and beyond mere existence ....

Workers have been vilified for decades as 'over paid', just like we see with the UAW workers today ... Funny thing is: UAW workers CAN afford to buy cars and washing machines and all the things that the marketplace offers ... It is NON union workers who have been crunched down to pauperism ....

So, without some headroom in family budgets that could sustain more debt or save enough to buy cars outright: The Big Three will die on the vine ....

The 15 billion they received will only fix their cash flow problems in the short term: We need WORKERS to gain more income, and that is not part of the dialogue as of now ....

The situation is degenerate, and there is no floor strong enough to stop the fall ... NOBODY is going to step in and begin making the purchases in the marketplace that will be necessary to keep the ball rolling .... Without more pay: Families will live on the edge, and purchasing power will not increase ....

The Big Three are doomed .... And so are the others ....

[ellisonz]

48. Bingo.

A little socialism never hurt nobody.

[Fire1]

49. I have confidence in Obama's trillion dollar stimulus package.....

and yes, even he says it won't be a quick fix for '09 but there will still be enough working people to buy cars. Also, I think the auto execs recognize the prices will have to be adjusted to meet the median income.

[grantcart]

46. It is going to be tragic

And the fear is going to cause all of the businesses to lower their inventories cancel any machinery purchases and not hire people they need. It will be a downward spiral.


Its like the people who chase twisters for a living, you just prepare yourself to observe the oncoming storm.