My electorial vote analysis... for what it's worth...

[Dawgs]

Who gives a shit about the national polls!!! Below is my analysis of what I see(from electorial-vote.com).

Kerry(locked states): 217
Bush(locked states): 171

My analysis is based on historical poll numbers over the last six months. In swing states where Kerry has been ahead almost the whole time I gave the state to Kerry. The same goes for Dubya. Below is what I discovered from this analysis.

States Kerry will probably win(Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin): 65

States Bush will probably win(Arkansas, Colorado, Ohio, Tennessee): 46

This puts Kerry at 282 and Bush at 217. Even if Bush wins the rest of the states he will only get to 256. Those other states by the way are Missouri, Nevada, Delaware, DC, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.

Someone needs to tell the "liberal" media that Bush is a lot farther behind than Kerry.

[Beetwasher]

1. Uh, Delaware, DC and VT are pretty much Kerry Locks As Well

and, IMO, Kerry has to plan on winning without Florida.

I have no doubt that more people in Florida will vote Kerry, but the state will still be given to Bush.

Nonetheless, you are correct that Kerry is in good shape w/ regard to EV's.

[trotsky]

2. FL and OH are key.

If Kerry doesn't win either, he'll probably lose.

If he wins one, he should win the election.

If he wins both, he's got a landslide.

[Dawgs]

8. Kerry does not need Ohio and Florida at all...

It would definitely help, but he could win with what he should win, plus a state like Colorado or Missouri.

[trotsky]

11. You're right, but it would be awfully tough.

At least with how things are right now.

[Catfight]

3. You'd think Colorado would care about it's environment? n/t

[seabeyond]

10. environment the big one for Colorado

and for the smear..........my opinion and would be doing all us moms and dad a favor. the Coors president dude, soft porn ads of boob twins during daytime football games. mothers are shutting off husbands football games, or keeping children out of room.

not family values all

greed takes precedent over family values, is my question

[Stuckinthebush]

4. How will Kerry win Florida?

True, he may get the most votes, but we have seen how Florida's governor and legislature will give Bush the votes any way they can. In 2000 the House certified that Bush was the winner before the Supremes stepped in. This act goes unnoticed now because of the overshadowing SC decision, but it is important to remember that a state legislature can do what it wishes with the electoral votes.

I anticipate dirty politics this time using absentee ballots. We have seen the GOP time and again do whatever it takes to get or keep power. This year will be no different. The constitution (both state and national) means nothing to the GOP. The end justifies the means.

We need to find a way to win without Florida.

[Dawgs]

6. Whatever!!

I'm really tired of hearing the whole Florida can't be won if it's close shit. That negativety isn't going to do us any good. If there is any state that will not allow this to happen again, it is Florida.

Like it or not, Kerry has a lot more support than you think down there. Kerry will win Florida.

[Beetwasher]

7. I REALLY Hope You're Right!

I'm quite certain that you are right in terms of the amount of support he has. For all intent and purpose, FL should be a fairly solid blue state by now. However, the amount of corruption is not something to dismiss blithely.

I really do hope you're right.

[Stuckinthebush]

13. Not negative at all, just realistic

Hey, I think we can win this without Florida. It is obvious that Florida is a problem. The governor and legislators have already shown that they are willing to do anything to elect Bush. Anything.

So, unless you have an idea as to how to combat widespread election fraud in Florida, then I suggest that we not count on Florida carrying the Dems to the White House.

[Dawgs]

5. I agree, but if Ohio and Florida stay close in the polls..

Kerry should win easily with new voters and turn out. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Kerry won every swing state. In the "real" news(Iraq, Afghanastan(sp?), Economy, etc..) things are getting worse for Bush. This will drive people to change their minds or get out and vote against him.

We'll see.

[MoonRiver]

9. I don't know about Florida. Even if Kerry wins it, Jeb will make sure *

"wins". Yeah, we'll be watching a lot more closely, but he controls the entire statewide electoral machine.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

12. Kerry must attempt Ohio, Tennessee, Missouri, and Virginia.

Jeb will steal the state for * again!