DC's Political Report, for the second week has Kerry's lead in the electoral college rebounding to a Kerry win in the electoral college:
Kerry still holds 15 states for 201 EV
11 States for 172 EV outside the MoE of Polls
4 States for 29 EV within MoE
Bush has 20 states for 179 EV, all outside of MoE
There are 11 States now too close to call with 141 EV
Kerry leads in 4 of these states for 68 EV
Bush leads in 4 of these states for 64 EV
1 stae is tied for 9 EV.
There are still 5 states with 17 EV with no polls
Kerry likely to win 2 of these states for 6 EV
Bush liekly to win 3 of these states for 11 EV
Total EV count as of today:
Kerry 284 EV
Bush: 254 EV
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htmEven throwing tied states to Bush, plus the fact that DC's report may be counting Arkansas for Kerry while Bush leads in the latest polls there gives Kerry a win in the electoral college.
Other Electoral Count polls have Kerry in the leas as well
The latest count at electoral vote.com
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 273 Bush 233
http://www.electoral-vote.com/Electoral College Update 26
Kerry 291, Bush 238 electoral votes.
The latest projection, based on averages of all recent state-by-state polls, shows no changes. Surprisingly, the expected "Bush bounce" as measured by this methodology is little more than a slight tightening of the race where Kerry is ahead and a slight widening of Bush's lead in states where he leads.
http://www.robertsilvey.com/notes/2004_electoral_college_updates/index.html