By my calculations if the polls are averaged over the past...

[whistle]

... 42 days, bounce or no bounce, it's a tie with Bush presently leading 48% to 47% Kerry among most likely voters. Polls go up, they go down, they go round and round. So, this is not the time to throw in the towel DUers, but rather to throw our full support and energy behind the Kerry/Edwards ticket.:kick:

<link> http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

[delete_bush]

1. There is one page of a poll that is used

frequently at DU that uses a regression analysis. This could be more accurate than using the average. I haven't taken the time to look at the methodology, and might not be able to understand it anyway, but you might take a look.

The site states: This map is based on the projections from the least squares linear regression lines on the state polls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep12p.html

[TruthIsAll]

2. I have done the math. You are close to the TRUTH.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index.htm

[whistle]

4. Oh man that is a fabulous site.....

....I shall that once a week minimum, it just tells me that like horse races, the political race is decided when the finish-line has been crossed by the candidate who has the lead. Except perhaps in 2000 :(

[Teaser]

3. although I agree with the tenor of your comments...

42 days is too long a window to use, especially considering the number of major news events in that window...