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September 10, 2004
from the Arab American Institute 53 Days until Election Day 2004!
Watch the Bouncing Polls President George W. Bush started the week with two highly publicized polls (Time and Newsweek) giving him a double-digit lead over Senator John Kerry. This, in turn, lead to hand wringing amongst Democrats, celebration amongst Republicans, and a public left wondering if it's all over. Polling creates perception, perception creates reality. But isn't it too soon to say it's over? True, conventional wisdom holds that the candidate leading on Labor Day wins in November, but never before has a party convention been held so close to the traditional end-of-summer holiday. By changing the timetable, the Bush campaign has also changed the assumptions we can make about who leads when. Also, it's always a good idea to scour the methodology of polls to see if there are any indicators as to why the numbers are what they are. For example, as pollster John Zogby noted recently in the Financial Times, the Newsweek sample of registered voters includes 38% Republicans and 31% Democrats, while the last three last presidential elections have shown a much more even breakdown, giving the president an advantage. Clearly President Bush is riding high, but as Zogby writes, "with all that said, it simply is not an 11 point race. It just isn't."
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