NYS Senate

[H2O Man]

I believe that the seat that Hillary Clinton is giving up has been offered to Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg. It is up to her if she accepts it, or not. While there are numerous good candidates for that position, I'll be pleased if she becomes one of my state's Senators. Apparently one of the considerations given was the belief that she would be able to win the 2010 and 2012 elections.

[brer cat]

1. She would be an asset, for sure!

K&R

[H2O Man]

6. I think so. n/t

[BeyondGeography]

2. Based on her long record of achievement in tough electoral contests

:sarcasm:

Sorry, I love Caroline, but I'm not seeing this one.

[H2O Man]

4. There is a good chance

that you will.

[onenote]

15. and of course she'd be the first person ever to get a political office based on their name

:sarcasm:

Here is a question for those that think Caroline Kennedy is not 'qualified' to be appointed US Senator from NY: do you think that, if instead of the position being filled through an appointment, it was filled via a special election, that she would have no chance of winning? 50 percent chance of winning? 75 percent chance of winning? 100 percent chance of winning?

Personally, I think she'd clearly have a better than 50 percent chance of winning.

[BeyondGeography]

17. She'd have a better chance of winning now than in 2010

when the worst is over for the Republicans and she has a record to run on. A ham sandwich could run as a Democrat against a non-incumbent Republican and win now.

Maybe that's the problem...

[onenote]

19. which Democrat would have a better chance of winning in 2010?

If I understand your point, it is that Kennedy will be a weak candidate in 2010 in NY because the repubs will have turned the corner. So, my question is, which Democrat in NY could stem this coming tide of repub support in NY?

[BeyondGeography]

21. One that has won an actual election before

How's that?

[onenote]

22. so anyone who has won any election has a better chance than Caroline Kennedy of winning in 2010?

You clearly don't believe that. So you're just being evasive. Can you name one NY politician with the statewide name recognition and the access to financial support that Caroline Kennedy has?

And do you really think that the repubs are going to be so strong in 2010 that the NY Senate seat would be at risk with Caroline Kennedy running for it even as an incumbent? Keep in mind, in case you've forgotten, that the seat she is running for has been held by the Democrats since 1976 when Moynihan won it with 54 percent of the vote. He won reelection three times, with 65, 67 and 55 percent, and then Clinton took the seat, winning 55 and then 67 percent of the vote. The State's other Senate seat has been held by the Democrats since 1998 when Shumer won it with 55 percent. He picked up 70 percent in 2004. And the repub that held the seat for three terms before shumer, Al D'Amato, only topped 50 percent once in his three wins (in 1980 he narrowly won 45/44 over Elizabeth HOltzman, with Javits taking the rest of the vote; in 1992, he won by a 49/48 margin).

The reality is that Caroline Kennedy has as good, if not better, chance of holding that seat for the Democrats as any other person who might run for it. That's not saying others can't win -- they clearly can. Just that the notion that she would be a weaker candidate than any of the other candidates is absurd.

[BeyondGeography]

23. I'd settle for someone who has actually contested an election; somewhere, anywhere

The only person you can compare her to is Hillary, and she hung around campaigns at all levels for three decades before she ran in New York. That, combined with the fact that she obviously had the piss and vinegar that you need to survive here made me much more comfortable with her.

Look, this is all intuition right now. Mine tells me Caroiline Kennedy is a complete unknown who will be vulnerable to attack. Yours says she will be fine...

[onenote]

25. actually, I can compare her to Moynihan. He never had run for anything before going for the senate

And while getting elected to a Senate seat in your first try at elective politics is unusual, its not unheard of. Jim Webb is a recent example. THe fact is that if she's not a strong contender for election when she has to face the voters, she will face a primary challenge. So she'll have to go through a campaign before she actually has her name put before the voters.

But you're right, its all intuition at this point. Only, while Caroline Kennedy's positions may be "unknown", she isn't -- she has enormous name recognition. And, rightly or wrongly, that's a big deal in politics and in NY politics in particular.

[Cha]

24. Thank you for nutshelling that

history of the New York Senate races, onenote. I just came to New York in '98 in time to vote for Schumer and will be on the road again in 2010 to make still another state my home.

Soon all will be revealed.

[mtnsnake]

3. I will be proud to have anyone named Kennedy as my Senator

I'm curious as to what makes you think the job has already been offered to her, though.

[H2O Man]

5. A conversation

with someone who I am confident knows. (In fact, I think quite a few people know.)

[mtnsnake]

7. Cool

thanks

[Grateful for Hope]

26. I think I might know who you had that conversation with

and, if I am right, it's a very reputable source.

I would really like to see her become our next senator.

[countingbluecars]

8. I think she will do a great job. n/t

[H2O Man]

9. I think so, too. n/t

[cali]

10. I've seen no evidence that the seat has been offered to her

I doubt that it will be.

[H2O Man]

11. I believe you

see no evidence that it has. And that's fine.

[cali]

12. that's because there is no evidence that it's been offered to her

there is evidence that she'd like it and that Paterson is considering her. That's a different story.

[H2O Man]

13. That is a different story.

People can believe what they want.

[annabanana]

14. I don't hate the idea..

Somehow NY and "star power" kind of go together...

PLUS, I suspect that, once in office, she will work like a woman possessed for NY. AND I suspect that she will get results that will mollify the skeptics.

[H2O Man]

16. What I have

heard is that there were about six people under consideration, four of them seriously. There were a number of factors considered.

Caroline has several very strong points. They match up well with, among other things, with the possible serious attempts by the republicans to capture the seat in the near future. A few of important things include: state-wide name recognition; fund-raising ability; and the fact that Senator Clinton was able to get significant "cross-over" support in 2006 with republican women.

Personally, I think there are at least four good candidates for the seat. And while the decision is not mine to make, I do trust those who are in those positions to make the best choice.

[Tennessee Gal]

18. I hope she will accept.

I would support her.

[H2O Man]

20. I think she

would be very good as a US Senator.

[rosesaylavee]

27. I would have preferred RFK Jr. ...

but as he didn't want it, I am quite pleased that she is going to take it.

[H2O Man]

28. It sounds like

he believes that his cousin is the appropriate choice. Apparently, he spoke to the Governor about why he thinks Caroline should be appointed.

[rosesaylavee]

29. I don't know if there is any chance for him

to take an active role in this administration. I had hoped he'd be tapped for the EPA position or something else like Global Climate Change czar. Maybe he still will.

[Me.]

30. Let Me Be The 5th

I won't be unhappy if she becomes our senator, I appreciate the work she has done on NYC schools. She, like her mother before her, has always worked quietly behind the scenes so it's interesting that she is coming out into the open. I will always be thankful to Jackie for saving Grand Central Station when fools were about to tear it down.

[RhodaGrits]

31. I was talking with someone who knows the inner workings of Albany

last Thursday night after the Senate machinations came to conclusion. After laughing about the Senate Kindergarten - everyone now has to sit in alphabetical order rather than Majority on one side and Minority Party on the other - We discussed who DP would select for HRC's replacement. My source is a Repub but longtime friend of DP and he was a bit cheerful because he thought that of the people on DP's short list, they were vulnerable to a Repub challenge next election cycle.

As soon as I heard that Caroline had thrown her hat in on Friday, I was fairly sure that DP would tap her because she would be the candidate he could be sure would hold the seat.

I am delighted by the possibility of CK as my senator. I heard her speak at an Obama rally in Scranton right before the election and she was articulate, comfortable and wildly popular with the crowd. She's ready to take the public stage and she's well qualified - as anyone who has read any of her books is aware.

[SuperTrouper]

32. She will be the next NYS Senator.

[FourScore]

33. From Ithaca NY:

This is EXCELLENT news!!!!

Yippee!!

[jumptheshadow]

34. She has upstate appeal

For years, many Catholic homes in Western New York had her dad's picture displayed prominently in them.

I admire the woman. I hope she takes Uncle Teddy's mantle and that she makes a major commitment to serve the economically depressed area in and near Buffalo.

[Marrah_G]

35. I would like to see her do this

I did not want to see her in an Administrative cabinet type position, but I do think she would make a great Senator.

[bleever]

36. I have a trivial question:

Would she be Senator Kennedy or Senator Schlossberg?

[paulk]

37. if it's true

this reeks of privilege -

is this what the Democratic Party is now about?

and I don't see this idea that she would be a shoo-in for an election. I don't see how the appointment of an ultra liberal Park Avenue dilettante is going to play well in upstate. Has she got the political chops to win upstate over like HRC did? She's never held elected office, she's never campaigned. What is this belief that she would be a good future candidate based on? Her bloodlines?

I'm dumbfounded by this...

[H2O Man]

38. "she;s never campaigned"

RVW.

[paulk]

40. she's never campaigned for herself

I thought that point was obvious.

[RhodaGrits]

39. This is HRC's seat =

and Clinton's qualifications, including residency at time of her initial election as my senator were...?? Dilettante? Do you know anything about Caroline Kennedy?

[paulk]

41. you missed the point I was making about Hillary Clinton

and upstate

or ignored it, whatever...


--------------

yeah, I called her a dilettante. Which she is. She's a political amateur, a dabbler - she's never run for or held office. That doesn't mean she isn't qualified. For all I know she could turn out to be the greatest Senator NY has ever had. The point is that she shouldn't get the post just because of her last name and her connections. It's not what this country is supposed to be about, IMO. It's what we revolted against.

And it's especially not what the Democratic Party is supposed to be about.

We are not the party of privilege.

[RhodaGrits]

42. As a resident of a small rural town in upstate ny I'm still waiting to see what HRC

ever did to represent me. I know about meetings that she attended where everyone feared to ask her for her help, she did the photo op and left. But this is not my disgruntlement over HRC's service to upstate NY or whether she was ever really a resident who understood the state and its needs. I'm very happy to see her go back to Wash. D.C. where she is far more suited to the job as SOS.

I believe CK is highly qualified, very intelligent and well-informed. I don't see by-passing NY's very complicated and exasperating Dem state party hoops as a negative.

If we that live here in NY don't like the job that she does, we can vote her out in a Dem primary in a couple years.

[paulk]

43. she must have done something right

she won red upstate counties in 2004 that a Democrat hadn't taken in 50 years.

She had a ton of support upstate - and appointing NYCer Caroline Kennedy will be seen as a slap in the face by many upstaters, imo.


-----------------


ps - I grew up in Tioga County and am still related to about half the people there....

[RhodaGrits]

44. Then they wouldn't have been very happy with all the other

downstate people making the short list for the seat either. At least CK has positive name recognition upstate - which many of those downstate legislators being considered lacked.

[ShortnFiery]

45. WTF?!? Why does her "genetics" place her above OTHERS? eom