BRAND NEW TIME POLL: Bush 52, Kerry 41 (JA 56%, Re-Elect 52%)

[TheStateChief]

Last week’s seismic voter shift to George W. Bush showed no signs of dwindling in this week’s Time Poll. Bush continues to lead Democratic challenger John Kerry among likely voters by double digits, 52% - 41%, in the three way race, with Nader at 3%, the same as last week.

Putting this into perspective, just a month ago, post-Democratic convention, the Time Poll had Kerry with a statistically significant lead over Bush, 48% - 43%.

With almost two months left, and the candidate debates upcoming, it is still too soon to conclude whether the Bush bounce will translate into continuing momentum or fall back down to the ground. Clearly, this Time Poll finds no signs of Bush erosion so far. By contrast, Kerry’s standing vs. Bush on key issues, such as the economy and fighting terrorism, have slipped. Moreover, a late August Time Poll, taken before the Republican Convention, captured the first signs of Kerry slippage following blistering attacks on Kerry’s Vietnam service.

Historically, bounces often do disappear. For example, Jimmy Carter’s 10 point bounce after the 1980 Democratic Convention evaporated quickly. Presidential debates have also been turning points in some Presidential elections, starting with the first televised debate, Kennedy vs. Nixon, in 1960. The upcoming debates could well sway the vote. Therefore, the race remains in flux in spite of recent setbacks to the Kerry camp.


http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,695528,00.html

[mark414]

1. the last time poll was bullshit

why should this one be any different?

[TheStateChief]

2. If they sampled more Republicans than Democrats I agree

but I can find that data on the page

[demgrrrll]

7. I read this quickly but I was not able to find any methodology for this

poll other than registered voters. Does anyone have any further information on this or is this another bullshit Times poll?

[billbuckhead]

5. Did they poll any Democrats this time?

Time is part of the AOL-CNN propaganda effort.

[shockingelk]

12. National polls are BS

If 99% of people in Utah say they'll vote for Jr, it's the same thing as winning over Kerry 47 to 46%.

[shockingelk]

13. Other than they identify trends n/t

[still_one]

3. Please remeber that AOL/Time-Warner/CNN are related

[billybob537]

4. In case you didn't notice

TIME LICKS BUSH"S ASS.

[TheFarseer]

6. Kerry's back on top

on electoralvote.com That's about all I would concern myself with.

[teamster633]

26. As he has been for months except for what,

the last 2 weeks? The numbers have usually been heavily in Kerry's favor for that matter. The best * could do was just over 270 for his short ascendancy. He peaked at 280 if I remember correctly. Since respectable polls remain deadlocked within 1-2 percentage points I'd say *'s bounce was nothing but a media myth.

[TheFarseer]

27. This election has been within the margin of error

the whole time. When Kerry was slightly ahead, the media said it was a tie and now that bush might be slightly ahead, it's a blow out. I'm more than a little disappointed with our "liberal" media. Here we are in the MofE and Jay Leno is making jokes that the Kerry campaign is dead.

[West Coast Democrat]

8. Well, Newsweek's new poll is much different this week...

and they continued to poll more Republicans the same as last time. But shrub's bounce is quite deflated.

[lancdem]

9. I'd also like to see the breakdown of how, Repukes, Dem and indys

voted. The Newsweek poll has Bush's approval rating at 48 percent and has him going from 5 up among indys to 6 down.

[sonicx]

10. it's in the link...

Likely voters reported party identifications are: 34% Republican, 35% Democratic, 22% Independents.
Registered voters party affiliations are: 31% Republican, 32% Democratic, 26% Independent.


dems and repubs won't be that close in real life.

plus the numbers don't add up to 100%. :)

[TheStateChief]

16. LOL

34% Republican
35% Democratic
22% Independent

Where are the other 7%?

LOL

[lancdem]

25. I meant whom they support

I want to know how Kerry is doing among Dems and indys.

[sonicx]

31. i don't think they released them yet...

not sure if they released em last time. hmm...

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

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[West Coast Democrat]

14. He only posts polls...

which are good for shrub.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[West Coast Democrat]

18. This guy's been around for a while...

doing the same thing.

[MissB]

19. His profile was up until yesterday afternoon

For some reason he took it down :eyes:

[JimmyJazz]

17. Speaking of polls...

This just came out in today's Philadelphia Inquirer (Hey Purple Pennsylvania - check this out!):

Here are the results of a global poll:
Norway - 74% Kerry v. 7% Bush
Germany - 74% Kerry v. 10% Bush
France - 64% Kerry v. 5% Bush
Netherlands (64-5)
Italy (58-14)
Spain (45-7)
UK (47 - 16)
Canada (61 - 16)
Only Poland, Nigeria and Thailand were pro-Bush

Gosh, maybe "YEEEEEHHHHHAAAAAA" is not good foreign policy after all.

[Dogmudgeon]

20. Pollsters -- Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. (SRBI)

http://www.srbi.com/

They do the polling for Time now.

Who are these people?

http://www.srbi.com/who_we_are.html

Check 'em out.

--bkl

[CrazyAtheist]

21. Polls are meaningless at this stage

In two more weeks Kerry could be ahead by 10, then back, then again. Remember how far Clinton was down in '92. He was polling third in some cases. All that matters is the numbers on election day.

[rndmprsn]

22. i dont't trust AOL/Time/Warner at all

[are_we_united_yet]

23. This worthless poll

is Bullshit. They are all bullshit.

[Bleacher Creature]

24. No way 56% of the people . . .

. . . approve of the job Shrub is doing.

There's just no way that's possible.

[WI_DEM]

28. Newsweek shows it's 11-point lead for * has shrunk to five

So there.

[OneBlueSky]

29. so what, specifically, is AOL/Time-Warner's interest . . .

in making sure that BushCo stays in power? . . . anyone care to venture a guess or three? . . .

[spanone]

30. Poll THIS!!!

:puke:

[Toronto Ron]

32. Let them believe it

Let the assholes believe that they can sit back and rest easy for the next seven weeks. Let them wallow in their 60%-35% leads in Texas and Idaho, while we keep working so that Kerry ends up 51%-47% in Florida & Ohio.